2026 season, after week 4 · 20,000 simulations of every remaining game
How much to trust this. Early in the season it leans better than the standings, but not by a demonstrated margin. Calibrated: on 2020-2025 seasons it never saw, teams it gave about 70% made the playoffs 69% of the time, and every band was within about 2 points. No betting-market comparison exists for these numbers.
Backtest on 2020-2025 (fitted on 2015-2019): against the standings with every remaining game a coin flip, -6.76 millibrier on "makes the playoffs" (95% band -14.92 to 5.14, so not a demonstrated edge overall); preseason -23.47 (-32.46 to -13.35, a real edge); weeks 8 and 12 +1.72 and +2.62 (level).
| Team | Record | Proj W | Playoffs | Division | #1 seed | Conf | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF East | 3-0 | 12.2 | 86% | 72% | 30% | 23% | 12% |
| JAX South | 2-1 | 10.8 | 76% | 64% | 12% | 13% | 7% |
| DEN West | 2-1 | 10.5 | 69% | 40% | 11% | 12% | 6% |
| KC West | 3-0 | 10.5 | 68% | 39% | 12% | 10% | 5% |
| BAL North | 2-1 | 9.9 | 60% | 32% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| CIN North | 2-1 | 9.8 | 59% | 30% | 8% | 7% | 3% |
| NE East | 1-2 | 9.2 | 51% | 22% | 5% | 8% | 4% |
| CLE North | 3-1 | 9.3 | 51% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| PIT North | 2-2 | 8.7 | 43% | 16% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| LV West | 3-0 | 8.7 | 41% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| HOU South | 0-3 | 7.9 | 36% | 20% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| IND South | 1-2 | 7.4 | 28% | 15% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| NYJ East | 1-2 | 5.7 | 11% | 3% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| LAC West | 0-3 | 5.3 | 10% | 3% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| MIA East | 0-3 | 5.0 | 7% | 2% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| TEN South | 0-3 | 4.0 | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Team | Record | Proj W | Playoffs | Division | #1 seed | Conf | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN North | 3-0 | 11.9 | 82% | 51% | 26% | 17% | 9% |
| SEA West | 2-1 | 11.6 | 80% | 45% | 20% | 22% | 13% |
| SF West | 3-0 | 11.4 | 76% | 40% | 20% | 16% | 8% |
| DET North | 2-1 | 10.0 | 60% | 24% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| PHI East | 2-1 | 9.7 | 59% | 47% | 6% | 7% | 3% |
| CHI North | 2-1 | 9.7 | 56% | 19% | 7% | 8% | 4% |
| LA West | 1-2 | 8.9 | 45% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| NO South | 1-2 | 7.5 | 37% | 31% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| ATL South | 1-2 | 7.4 | 34% | 28% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| NYG East | 2-1 | 7.9 | 33% | 22% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| CAR South | 1-2 | 6.9 | 28% | 23% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| WAS East | 1-2 | 7.4 | 27% | 16% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| DAL East | 1-2 | 7.2 | 25% | 15% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| GB North | 1-2 | 7.2 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| TB South | 0-3 | 6.1 | 21% | 17% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| ARI West | 1-2 | 6.4 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
Each simulation plays out every remaining game from our team ratings, with the ratings updating as the simulated season goes and starting from a spread around today's numbers (a rating is an estimate, not a fact). Then it seeds each conference (seven teams, one bye) and plays the bracket. Standings ties are broken by a coin flip, not the NFL's tiebreak rules, so bubble teams' division and seed odds are rough. Every run is stored, and the season will be graded against what happens.
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