Our win probability next to the Kalshi price, every game in the next 8 days · built Oct 4, 9:57 PM ET · schedule as of Oct 4, 5:50 PM ET
"Kalshi" is the latest observed bid/ask mid, de-vigged across the two legs where both are quoted (a leg wider than 10¢ is not a price and is left out), and links to the market; the scored benchmark above is the T-6h mid, not this. Puck line and Total are the Kalshi strikes priced nearest 50¢ (the market's own line) with that strike's price. Records are this season's W-L-OTL for the same game type, before puck drop. Preseason cards carry no model number: split squads are a different sport and the model is neither trained nor graded on them.
| # | Game | Our pick | Confidence | Kalshi fav |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VAN @ CAR | CAR | 49 | CAR |
| 2 | CAR @ CHI | CAR | 41 | CAR |
| 3 | TOR @ COL | COL | 40 | COL |
| 4 | SJS @ DAL | DAL | 32 | DAL |
| 5 | COL @ CGY | COL | 30 | COL |
| 6 | CHI @ NYI | NYI | 29 | NYI |
| 7 | VAN @ NYR | NYR | 28 | NYR |
| 8 | TOR @ VGK | VGK | 27 | VGK |
| 9 | SEA @ WSH | WSH | 26 | — |
| 10 | SJS @ STL | STL | 26 | SJS |
| 11 | PHI @ TBL | TBL | 25 | TBL |
| 12 | VAN @ NJD | NJD | 25 | NJD |
| 13 | LAK @ VGK | VGK | 25 | VGK |
| 14 | NSH @ MTL | MTL | 23 | MTL |
| 15 | NSH @ OTT | OTT | 22 | OTT |
| 16 | DET @ MTL | MTL | 22 | MTL |
| 17 | STL @ CHI | STL | 21 | STL |
| 18 | CAR @ PHI | CAR | 20 | — |
| 19 | COL @ WPG | COL | 20 | COL |
| 20 | PHI @ OTT | OTT | 19 | OTT |
| 21 | FLA @ BUF | BUF | 17 | — |
| 22 | NYR @ WSH | WSH | 16 | WSH |
| 23 | VGK @ SEA | VGK | 15 | VGK |
| 24 | UTA @ BUF | BUF | 15 | BUF |
| 25 | EDM @ SJS | EDM | 14 | EDM |
| 26 | PHI @ BOS | BOS | 14 | BOS |
| 27 | WPG @ PIT | PIT | 14 | PIT |
| 28 | SEA @ DET | DET | 13 | DET |
| 29 | TBL @ NYI | TBL | 11 | TBL |
| 30 | PIT @ WSH | WSH | 11 | WSH |
| 31 | ANA @ WPG | WPG | 11 | WPG |
| 32 | MIN @ TBL | TBL | 10 | TBL |
| 33 | DAL @ BUF | BUF | 10 | DAL |
| 34 | NYI @ NYR | NYR | 10 | NYR |
| 35 | CBJ @ STL | STL | 8 | STL |
| 36 | VGK @ MIN | MIN | 8 | — |
| 37 | MIN @ BUF | BUF | 8 | MIN |
| 38 | CAR @ MTL | CAR | 8 | CAR |
| 39 | OTT @ DET | OTT | 7 | OTT |
| 40 | UTA @ BOS | BOS | 6 | UTA |
| 41 | OTT @ NJD | OTT | 6 | — |
| 42 | PIT @ CBJ | CBJ | 4 | CBJ |
| 43 | EDM @ ANA | EDM | 4 | EDM |
| 44 | NSH @ TOR | TOR | 4 | TOR |
| 45 | FLA @ LAK | FLA | 3 | FLA |
| 46 | OTT @ BOS | BOS | 2 | OTT |
| 47 | MIN @ FLA | MIN | 2 | FLA |
| 48 | UTA @ NJD | UTA | 2 | NJD |
| 49 | DAL @ PIT | PIT | 1 | DAL |
| 50 | ANA @ CGY | CGY | 0 | ANA |
Confidence is how far our win % sits from a coin flip, scaled 0-100 (|p − 50%| × 2). Hockey is close to a coin flip: few games clear 30.
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | COL | 1584 |
| 2 | CAR | 1582 |
| 3 | TBL | 1549 |
| 4 | BUF | 1541 |
| 5 | MIN | 1539 |
| 6 | VGK | 1535 |
| 7 | DAL | 1531 |
| 8 | MTL | 1530 |
| 9 | OTT | 1527 |
| 10 | WSH | 1524 |
| 11 | EDM | 1515 |
| 12 | UTA | 1514 |
| 13 | PIT | 1511 |
| 14 | BOS | 1509 |
| 15 | FLA | 1507 |
| 16 | STL | 1506 |
| 17 | CBJ | 1501 |
| 18 | NYR | 1494 |
| 19 | WPG | 1488 |
| 20 | NYI | 1485 |
| 21 | PHI | 1485 |
| 22 | NJD | 1482 |
| 23 | DET | 1478 |
| 24 | ANA | 1476 |
| 25 | NSH | 1475 |
| 26 | LAK | 1473 |
| 27 | TOR | 1463 |
| 28 | SEA | 1457 |
| 29 | CGY | 1451 |
| 30 | SJS | 1440 |
| 31 | VAN | 1420 |
| 32 | CHI | 1406 |
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