I_PREDICT_SPORT
Derivative markets — exact model prices vs the books
Page generated 2026-08-07 00:24 UTC · engine perf_sigma=0.0827 set_carryover=-0.007 · prices refresh with each scheduled scan.
Markets: Match winner · Derivatives (spread · total · exact score)
Most desirable legs — ranked across every match
Every one of the 168 listed legs grades AVOID, and the best usable EV on the board is +0.4pp — below what the fees cost. This table is ranked, not recommended: today it shows the least-bad rows, not good ones. Ranked on usable EV (β × edge − fees), the same number the win-% tooltip explains — never the raw gap, which on a tight book is ~95% our own pricing noise (queue 132).
| Tournament | Match | Start (ET) | Pick | iPredict win % | Kalshi bid/ask | Poly bid/ask | ROI (w/ fees, 95% CI) | β | Ceiling | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO avoid | 24% MM: 24% MM: 30% · 21.2g · 5h low price | 0.15/0.16 | — | — | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 24.5 games - NO avoid | 64% MM: 62% · 23.3g · 7h low price | 0.54/0.56 | — | +0% [-11,+11] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO avoid | 59% MM: 54% low price | 0.52/0.53 | — | -2% [-12,+8] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 23.5 games - NO avoid | 59% low price | 0.54/0.55 | — | -2% [-12,+8] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 23.5 games - NO avoid | 55% MM: 59% low price | 0.53/0.54 | — | +6% [-8,+18] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Matteo Arnaldi wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 31% MM: 25% low price | 0.23/0.24 | — | -45% [-106,+7] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO avoid | 57% low price | 0.55/0.56 | — | +6% [-8,+18] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Brandon Nakashima wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 81% MM: 75% low price | 0.75/0.76 | — | -6% [-11,-0] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO avoid | 75% MM: 73% low price | 0.70/0.73 | — | — | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Brandon Nakashima — set 1 - YES avoid | 73% MM: 70% low price | 0.68/0.69 | — | +8% [-3,+20] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet starts Aug 6, 10:10 PM
Set-1 Nakashima 73% ·
Set-2 72% ·
straight sets 58% / 12% ·
expected games 22.7
Predicted score 2-0 58% MM: 2-0 52% · Exact sets — 2-0 58% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 11% · 0-2 12%
Total games — >17.5 76% · >22.5 41% · >27.5 25%
Chosen line — under 17.5 at 0.16 · fair 24% · usable +2.5pp
MM sets — 2-0 52% · 2-1 25% · 1-2 11% · 0-2 12% MM totals — >17.5 76% · >22.5 46% · >27.5 27% MM set-1 70% · set-2 70% MM spread — Brandon Nakashima -6.5 games 20% · Brandon Nakashima -3.5 games 55% · Titouan Droguet -1.5 games 20%
| Tournament | Match | Start (ET) | Pick | iPredict win % | Kalshi bid/ask | Poly bid/ask | ROI (w/ fees, 95% CI) | β | Ceiling | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO avoid | 24% MM: 24% MM: 30% · 21.2g · 5h low price | 0.15/0.16 | — | — | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO avoid | 59% MM: 54% low price | 0.52/0.53 | — | -2% [-12,+8] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Brandon Nakashima wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 81% MM: 75% low price | 0.75/0.76 | — | -6% [-11,-0] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO avoid | 75% MM: 73% low price | 0.70/0.73 | — | — | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Brandon Nakashima — set 1 - YES avoid | 73% MM: 70% low price | 0.68/0.69 | — | +8% [-3,+20] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Titouan Droguet wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 12% MM: 12% low price | 0.10/0.11 | — | +31% [-5,+67] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Brandon Nakashima wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 58% MM: 52% low price | 0.51/0.52 | — | -30% [-61,+0] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Brandon Nakashima — set 2 - YES avoid | 72% MM: 70% low price | 0.68/0.69 | — | +8% [-3,+20] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Titouan Droguet — set 2 - NO avoid | 72% MM: 70% low price | 0.68/0.69 | — | +2% [-9,+14] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Titouan Droguet wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 89% MM: 89% low price | 0.88/0.89 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Titouan Droguet wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 11% MM: 11% low price | 0.11/0.12 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Titouan Droguet wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 88% MM: 88% low price | 0.89/0.90 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Spread (games) — Brandon Nakashima -3.5 games - NO avoid | 42% MM: 45% low price | 0.45/0.46 | — | — | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Spread (games) — Brandon Nakashima -3.5 games - YES avoid | 58% MM: 55% low price | 0.54/0.55 | — | +0% [-16,+16] | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Brandon Nakashima wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 19% MM: 25% low price | 0.24/0.25 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Titouan Droguet — set 1 - NO avoid | 73% MM: 70% low price | 0.68/0.70 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Brandon Nakashima — set 2 - NO avoid | 28% MM: 30% low price | 0.31/0.32 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Titouan Droguet — set 2 - YES avoid | 28% MM: 30% low price | 0.31/0.32 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Brandon Nakashima — set 1 - NO avoid | 27% MM: 30% low price | 0.31/0.32 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Exact match score — Brandon Nakashima wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 42% MM: 48% low price | 0.48/0.49 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Set winner — Titouan Droguet — set 1 - YES avoid | 27% MM: 30% low price | 0.30/0.32 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES avoid | 41% MM: 46% low price | 0.47/0.48 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES avoid | 25% MM: 27% low price | 0.27/0.30 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES avoid | 76% MM: 76% low price | 0.84/0.85 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Spread (games) — Titouan Droguet -1.5 games - YES avoid | 19% MM: 20% low price | 0.21/0.24 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Spread (games) — Titouan Droguet -1.5 games - NO avoid | 81% MM: 80% low price | 0.76/0.79 | — | +6% [-5,+16] | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Spread (games) — Brandon Nakashima -6.5 games - NO avoid | 75% MM: 80% low price | 0.79/0.87 | — | — | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet | Aug 6, 10:10 PM | Spread (games) — Brandon Nakashima -6.5 games - YES avoid | 25% MM: 20% low price | 0.13/0.21 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien starts Aug 7, 3:30 PM
Set-1 Paul 53% ·
Set-2 52% ·
straight sets 34% / 29% ·
expected games 24.1
Predicted score 2-0 34% MM: 2-0 38% · Exact sets — 2-0 34% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 18% · 0-2 29%
Total games — >17.5 84% · >22.5 50% · >27.5 31%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.50 · fair 50% · usable -0.5pp · not actionable
MM sets — 2-0 38% · 2-1 20% · 1-2 16% · 0-2 26% MM totals — >17.5 82% · >22.5 50% · >27.5 29% MM set-1 56% · set-2 56% MM spread — Learner Tien -1.5 games 38% · Tommy Paul -5.5 games 20% · Tommy Paul -2.5 games 49%
| Tournament | Match | Start (ET) | Pick | iPredict win % | Kalshi bid/ask | Poly bid/ask | ROI (w/ fees, 95% CI) | β | Ceiling | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO avoid | 50% MM: 50% low price | 0.49/0.50 | — | — | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES avoid | 50% MM: 50% low price | 0.50/0.51 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tommy Paul — set 2 - NO avoid | 48% MM: 44% low price | 0.41/0.43 | — | +2% [-9,+14] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Learner Tien — set 1 - YES avoid | 47% MM: 44% low price | 0.41/0.43 | — | +8% [-3,+20] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tommy Paul — set 1 - NO avoid | 47% MM: 44% low price | 0.41/0.43 | — | +2% [-9,+14] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tommy Paul -2.5 games - YES avoid | 42% MM: 49% low price | 0.48/0.50 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tommy Paul -2.5 games - NO avoid | 58% MM: 51% low price | 0.50/0.52 | — | -20% [-38,-3] | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Learner Tien — set 1 - NO avoid | 53% MM: 56% low price | 0.57/0.59 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tommy Paul — set 1 - YES avoid | 53% MM: 56% low price | 0.57/0.59 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tommy Paul — set 2 - YES avoid | 52% MM: 56% low price | 0.57/0.59 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Learner Tien — set 2 - YES avoid | 48% MM: 44% low price | 0.41/0.44 | — | -7% [-19,+6] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Learner Tien wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 18% MM: 16% low price | 0.16/0.19 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Learner Tien wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 82% MM: 84% low price | 0.81/0.84 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Learner Tien -1.5 games - NO avoid | 59% MM: 62% low price | 0.64/0.68 | — | — | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Learner Tien — set 2 - NO avoid | 52% MM: 56% low price | 0.56/0.59 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Learner Tien wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 29% MM: 26% low price | 0.20/0.25 | — | +11% [-14,+38] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Learner Tien -1.5 games - YES avoid | 41% MM: 38% low price | 0.32/0.36 | — | -1% [-21,+18] | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tommy Paul wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 66% MM: 62% low price | 0.61/0.66 | — | -7% [-24,+9] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tommy Paul wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 34% MM: 38% low price | 0.34/0.39 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tommy Paul wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 81% MM: 80% low price | 0.74/0.80 | — | +1% [-2,+4] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Learner Tien wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 71% MM: 74% low price | 0.75/0.80 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO avoid | 69% MM: 71% high price | 0.23/0.71 | — | — | 0.96 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tommy Paul wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 19% MM: 20% low price | 0.20/0.26 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES avoid | 84% MM: 82% high price | 0.30/0.87 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tommy Paul -5.5 games - NO avoid | 83% MM: 80% high price | 0.60/0.86 | — | — | 0.54 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tommy Paul -5.5 games - YES avoid | 17% MM: 20% high price | 0.14/0.40 | — | — | 0.54 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES avoid | 31% MM: 29% high price | 0.29/0.77 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO avoid | 16% MM: 18% high price | 0.13/0.70 | — | — | 0.96 | — |
Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor starts Aug 7, 3:30 PM
Set-1 Arnaldi 50% ·
Set-2 50% ·
straight sets 31% / 31% ·
expected games 24.3
Predicted score 2-0 31% MM: 0-2 37% · Exact sets — 2-0 31% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 19% · 0-2 31%
Total games — >18.5 78% · >23.5 45% · >28.5 29%
Chosen line — under 23.5 at 0.54 · fair 55% · usable +0.0pp · not actionable
MM sets — 2-0 25% · 2-1 18% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 37% MM totals — >18.5 75% · >20.5 60% · >21.5 55% · >22.5 47% · >23.5 41% MM set-1 45% · set-2 44%
| Tournament | Match | Start (ET) | Pick | iPredict win % | Kalshi bid/ask | Poly bid/ask | ROI (w/ fees, 95% CI) | β | Ceiling | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 23.5 games - NO avoid | 55% MM: 59% low price | 0.53/0.54 | — | +6% [-8,+18] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Matteo Arnaldi wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 31% MM: 25% low price | 0.23/0.24 | — | -45% [-106,+7] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tallon Griekspoor — set 1 - NO avoid | 50% MM: 45% low price | 0.43/0.45 | — | +2% [-9,+14] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Matteo Arnaldi — set 1 - YES avoid | 50% MM: 45% low price | 0.43/0.45 | — | +8% [-3,+20] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tallon Griekspoor — set 2 - NO avoid | 50% MM: 44% low price | 0.44/0.46 | — | +2% [-9,+14] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Matteo Arnaldi wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 69% MM: 75% low price | 0.76/0.77 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tallon Griekspoor -1.5 games - YES avoid | 44% low price | 0.51/0.53 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 23.5 games - YES avoid | 45% MM: 41% low price | 0.46/0.47 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tallon Griekspoor -1.5 games - NO avoid | 56% low price | 0.47/0.49 | — | -20% [-38,-3] | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tallon Griekspoor — set 2 - YES avoid | 50% MM: 56% low price | 0.54/0.56 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Tallon Griekspoor — set 1 - YES avoid | 50% MM: 55% low price | 0.55/0.57 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Matteo Arnaldi — set 1 - NO avoid | 50% MM: 55% low price | 0.55/0.57 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Matteo Arnaldi -1.5 games - YES avoid | 44% high price | 0.27/0.38 | — | -34% [-51,-17] | 0.54 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Matteo Arnaldi wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 19% MM: 18% low price | 0.17/0.20 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Matteo Arnaldi wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 81% MM: 82% low price | 0.80/0.83 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tallon Griekspoor wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 69% MM: 63% low price | 0.63/0.67 | — | -7% [-24,+9] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tallon Griekspoor -4.5 games - YES avoid | 22% low price | 0.23/0.27 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Tallon Griekspoor -4.5 games - NO avoid | 78% low price | 0.73/0.77 | — | +6% [-5,+16] | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Matteo Arnaldi — set 2 - YES avoid | 50% MM: 44% low price | 0.41/0.46 | — | -7% [-19,+6] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tallon Griekspoor wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 81% MM: 80% low price | 0.75/0.80 | — | +1% [-2,+4] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tallon Griekspoor wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 31% MM: 37% low price | 0.33/0.37 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Tallon Griekspoor wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 19% MM: 20% low price | 0.20/0.25 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Matteo Arnaldi — set 2 - NO avoid | 50% MM: 56% low price | 0.54/0.59 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 28.5 games - NO avoid | 71% low price | 0.64/0.72 | — | — | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 28.5 games - YES avoid | 29% low price | 0.28/0.36 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 18.5 games - YES avoid | 78% MM: 75% high price | 0.22/0.84 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Matteo Arnaldi -1.5 games - NO avoid | 56% high price | 0.62/0.73 | — | — | 0.54 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 18.5 games - NO avoid | 22% MM: 25% high price | 0.16/0.78 | — | — | 0.96 | — |
Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik starts Aug 7, 3:30 PM
Set-1 Atmane 28% ·
Set-2 29% ·
straight sets 13% / 56% ·
expected games 23.0
Predicted score 0-2 56% MM: 0-2 53% · Exact sets — 2-0 13% · 2-1 12% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 56%
Total games — >19.5 62% · >24.5 36% · >29.5 20%
Chosen line — under 24.5 at 0.56 · fair 64% · usable +2.4pp
MM sets — 2-0 14% · 2-1 16% · 1-2 17% · 0-2 53% MM set-1 31% · set-2 30%
| Tournament | Match | Start (ET) | Pick | iPredict win % | Kalshi bid/ask | Poly bid/ask | ROI (w/ fees, 95% CI) | β | Ceiling | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 24.5 games - NO avoid | 64% MM: 62% · 23.3g · 7h low price | 0.54/0.56 | — | +0% [-11,+11] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Jakub Mensik — set 1 - YES avoid | 72% MM: 69% low price | 0.63/0.65 | — | -13% [-24,-2] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 1 - NO avoid | 72% MM: 69% low price | 0.63/0.65 | — | -6% [-17,+5] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 2 - NO avoid | 71% MM: 70% low price | 0.63/0.65 | — | -6% [-17,+5] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Jakub Mensik — set 2 - YES avoid | 71% MM: 70% low price | 0.63/0.65 | — | -13% [-24,-2] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 88% MM: 84% low price | 0.85/0.87 | — | -2% [-7,+3] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 12% MM: 16% low price | 0.13/0.15 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Jakub Mensik wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 56% MM: 53% low price | 0.44/0.47 | — | -6% [-35,+24] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 2 - YES avoid | 29% MM: 30% low price | 0.35/0.37 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Jakub Mensik — set 2 - NO avoid | 29% MM: 30% low price | 0.35/0.37 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Jakub Mensik — set 1 - NO avoid | 28% MM: 31% low price | 0.35/0.37 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 1 - YES avoid | 28% MM: 31% low price | 0.35/0.37 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Jakub Mensik wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 44% MM: 47% low price | 0.53/0.56 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 24.5 games - YES avoid | 36% low price | 0.44/0.46 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 29.5 games - NO avoid | 80% high price | 0.29/0.80 | — | — | 0.96 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 87% MM: 86% low price | 0.83/0.86 | — | +1% [-2,+4] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Jakub Mensik -2.5 games - NO avoid | 35% low price | 0.44/0.47 | — | — | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 13% MM: 14% low price | 0.14/0.17 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Jakub Mensik -2.5 games - YES avoid | 65% low price | 0.53/0.56 | — | -34% [-51,-17] | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Terence Atmane -1.5 games - YES avoid | 20% low price | 0.24/0.29 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Terence Atmane -1.5 games - NO avoid | 80% low price | 0.71/0.76 | — | -20% [-36,-3] | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Jakub Mensik wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 80% MM: 83% low price | 0.72/0.79 | — | +1% [-2,+4] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Jakub Mensik wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 20% MM: 17% low price | 0.21/0.28 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Jakub Mensik -5.5 games - YES avoid | 33% high price | 0.16/0.41 | — | — | 0.54 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Jakub Mensik -5.5 games - NO avoid | 67% high price | 0.59/0.84 | — | — | 0.54 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 19.5 games - YES avoid | 62% high price | 0.29/0.76 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 19.5 games - NO avoid | 38% high price | 0.24/0.71 | — | — | 0.96 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 29.5 games - YES avoid | 20% high price | 0.20/0.71 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz starts Aug 7, 3:30 PM
Set-1 Zandschulp 40% ·
Set-2 41% ·
straight sets 22% / 41% ·
expected games 23.4
Predicted score 0-2 41% MM: 0-2 43% · Exact sets — 2-0 22% · 2-1 16% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 41%
Total games — >18.5 73% · >23.5 41% · >28.5 25%
Chosen line — under 23.5 at 0.55 · fair 59% · usable +1.0pp
MM sets — 2-0 21% · 2-1 14% · 1-2 22% · 0-2 43% MM set-1 38% · set-2 40%
| Tournament | Match | Start (ET) | Pick | iPredict win % | Kalshi bid/ask | Poly bid/ask | ROI (w/ fees, 95% CI) | β | Ceiling | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 23.5 games - NO avoid | 59% low price | 0.54/0.55 | — | -2% [-12,+8] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 2 - NO avoid | 41% MM: 40% low price | 0.36/0.37 | — | +2% [-9,+14] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Botic Van de Zandschulp — set 2 - YES avoid | 41% MM: 40% low price | 0.35/0.37 | — | +8% [-3,+20] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Botic Van de Zandschulp — set 1 - YES avoid | 40% MM: 38% low price | 0.35/0.37 | — | +8% [-3,+20] | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 1 - NO avoid | 40% MM: 38% low price | 0.35/0.37 | — | +2% [-9,+14] | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 2 - YES avoid | 59% MM: 60% low price | 0.63/0.64 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Hubert Hurkacz -3.5 games - YES avoid | 43% low price | 0.43/0.45 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Hubert Hurkacz -3.5 games - NO avoid | 57% low price | 0.55/0.57 | — | — | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Botic Van de Zandschulp — set 1 - NO avoid | 60% MM: 62% low price | 0.63/0.65 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 1 - YES avoid | 60% MM: 62% low price | 0.63/0.65 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Botic Van de Zandschulp — set 2 - NO avoid | 59% MM: 60% low price | 0.63/0.65 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 23.5 games - YES avoid | 41% low price | 0.45/0.46 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Botic Van de Zandschulp wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 22% MM: 21% low price | 0.15/0.18 | — | +11% [-14,+38] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Botic Van de Zandschulp wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 16% MM: 14% low price | 0.13/0.16 | — | -23% [-39,-6] | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 59% MM: 57% low price | 0.54/0.57 | — | -7% [-24,+9] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Botic Van de Zandschulp wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 84% MM: 86% low price | 0.84/0.87 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Botic Van de Zandschulp wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 78% MM: 79% low price | 0.82/0.85 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 41% MM: 43% low price | 0.43/0.46 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Hubert Hurkacz -6.5 games - YES avoid | 16% high price | 0.03/0.15 | — | +19% [-32,+74] | 0.54 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Botic Van de Zandschulp -1.5 games - NO avoid | 66% low price | 0.74/0.79 | — | — | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Botic Van de Zandschulp -1.5 games - YES avoid | 34% low price | 0.21/0.26 | — | -4% [-52,+43] | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 80% MM: 78% low price | 0.73/0.79 | — | +1% [-2,+4] | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 20% MM: 22% low price | 0.21/0.27 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 28.5 games - NO avoid | 75% high price | 0.24/0.77 | — | — | 0.96 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Hubert Hurkacz -6.5 games - NO avoid | 84% high price | 0.85/0.97 | — | — | 0.54 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 18.5 games - YES avoid | 73% high price | 0.30/0.84 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 18.5 games - NO avoid | 27% high price | 0.16/0.70 | — | — | 0.96 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 28.5 games - YES avoid | 25% high price | 0.23/0.76 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen starts Aug 7, 3:30 PM
Set-1 Merida 36% ·
Set-2 36% ·
straight sets 19% / 47% ·
expected games 22.8
Predicted score 0-2 47% MM: 0-2 46% · Exact sets — 2-0 19% · 2-1 15% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 47%
Total games — >17.5 77% · >22.5 43% · >27.5 26%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.56 · fair 57% · usable -0.1pp · not actionable
MM sets — 2-0 19% · 2-1 15% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 46% MM set-1 36% · set-2 37%
| Tournament | Match | Start (ET) | Pick | iPredict win % | Kalshi bid/ask | Poly bid/ask | ROI (w/ fees, 95% CI) | β | Ceiling | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO avoid | 57% low price | 0.55/0.56 | — | +6% [-8,+18] | 0.33 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Alex Michelsen -3.5 games - YES avoid | 50% low price | 0.50/0.52 | — | — | -0.02 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Alex Michelsen wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 47% MM: 46% low price | 0.45/0.47 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES avoid | 43% low price | 0.44/0.45 | — | — | 0.33 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Alex Michelsen -3.5 games - NO avoid | 50% low price | 0.48/0.50 | — | -5% [-22,+12] | -0.02 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Alex Michelsen wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 53% MM: 54% low price | 0.53/0.55 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Daniel Merida wins 2-0 - YES avoid | 19% MM: 19% low price | 0.16/0.20 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Daniel Merida wins 2-0 - NO avoid | 81% MM: 81% low price | 0.80/0.84 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Alex Michelsen wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 80% MM: 80% low price | 0.73/0.80 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Daniel Merida wins 2-1 - NO avoid | 85% MM: 85% low price | 0.82/0.89 | — | — | 0.05 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Daniel Merida wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 15% MM: 15% low price | 0.11/0.18 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Alex Michelsen — set 1 - YES avoid | 64% MM: 64% low price | 0.60/0.67 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Daniel Merida — set 1 - YES avoid | 36% MM: 36% low price | 0.32/0.39 | — | — | 0.06 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Daniel Merida — set 1 - NO avoid | 64% MM: 64% low price | 0.61/0.68 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Alex Michelsen — set 1 - NO avoid | 36% MM: 36% low price | 0.33/0.40 | — | — | 0.06 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Exact match score — Alex Michelsen wins 2-1 - YES avoid | 20% MM: 20% low price | 0.20/0.27 | — | — | 0.05 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Daniel Merida — set 2 - YES avoid | 36% MM: 37% high price | 0.25/0.39 | — | — | 0.75 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Alex Michelsen — set 2 - YES avoid | 64% MM: 63% high price | 0.48/0.68 | — | — | 0.75 | — | no edge |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO avoid | 74% high price | 0.52/0.81 | — | — | 0.96 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Alex Michelsen -6.5 games - NO avoid | 79% high price | 0.60/0.86 | — | — | 0.54 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Daniel Merida — set 2 - NO avoid | 64% MM: 63% high price | 0.61/0.75 | — | — | 0.75 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES avoid | 77% high price | 0.44/0.87 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Set winner — Alex Michelsen — set 2 - NO avoid | 36% MM: 37% high price | 0.32/0.52 | — | — | 0.75 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Alex Michelsen -6.5 games - YES avoid | 21% high price | 0.14/0.40 | — | — | 0.54 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES avoid | 26% high price | 0.19/0.48 | — | — | 0.96 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO avoid | 23% high price | 0.13/0.56 | — | — | 0.96 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Daniel Merida -1.5 games - NO avoid | 71% high price | 0.02/0.96 | — | — | 0.54 | — | |
| ATP Montreal | Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen | Aug 7, 3:30 PM | Spread (games) — Daniel Merida -1.5 games - YES avoid | 29% high price | 0.04/0.98 | — | — | 0.54 | — | reference only (not yet staked) |
Measured performance by slice — withheld. Per-cell realised ROI, the fitted β for every horizon and derivative family, break-even thresholds and order-timing rules are kept in the project repository rather than published here. These markets are two-sided: a full account of which cells we price as soft is also a guide to trading against us.
What is not withheld is the part that matters for reading this page honestly: derivative totals and spreads are DISPLAYED and NOT TRADED; they were tested for promotion on 2026-07-31 and did not pass, because a well-measured slope did not survive the cost of crossing a wide book. Books tighter than 3c are permanently no-bet. Best-of-5 engine parameters remain unverified. Everything here is paper and analytical only — not financial advice.
Best-of-5 caution. The engine's set/games parameters were fitted and verified on best-of-3 only (1,500 forward matches, 8/8 structural checks). They are currently applied to best-of-5 as well, unverified. Treat any Grand Slam or best-of-5 total, spread or exact-score number here as provisional until that verification lands (queue 120).
Fair values are computed in closed form from the same engine that prices the match board — set-1 winner,
exact set score, and expected games per match. Strategy column: BUY at ask only when the fair value
clears the ask plus fees with margin (rare on tight books, by design); rest bid = a maker limit order
below fair value on soft, wide-spread books (exact-score books are typically 5-8¢ wide — crossing the
spread there gives the edge away). Both sides of every book are listed. Kalshi lists only one leg — totals appear
as “Over X.5”, spreads as the favourite at −X.5 — because each is a single
binary contract: NO is the under, and NO is the underdog’s +X.5, priced at
1−fair and quoted at (1−ask)/(1−bid). We show the NO leg explicitly so the whole
market is visible; the edge can sit on either side.
Total games and Spread (games) are DISPLAYED but not yet traded.
The games distribution previously ran ~1.7 games long with a mis-shaped set
distribution; that was traced to a specific mechanism and fixed on 2026-07-29
(per-match performance noise was destroying tiebreaks, because P(reaching 6−6)
is concave in the hold gap). Against 1,500 forward best-of-3 matches the engine
now matches the archive on every structural check: total games within 0.02
(23.81 vs 23.79), set-1 tiebreak rate 0.217 vs 0.203, and the set-score
distribution within noise.
Tested for promotion 2026-07-31, and it did not pass. On 1,424 settled
wide-book total-games legs, β — the fraction of an observed edge that proves
real — is +0.97 [+0.86, +1.07], our best-measured cell; wide-book game spread
is +0.54 [+0.37, +0.72] on 1,311 legs. Both are fold-stable: β is positive in every
month tested. That was enough to ask the promotion question properly, so we ran it as a
cross-fit backtest — β fitted on the other months, applied to score the
held-out one, bought at the actual T−6h touch, taker fee paid, settled 0/1,
bootstrapped by match.
The realised answer is +2.75% [−8.93%, +13.90%] over 129 matches, and it is
negative in the most recent fold (−15.9%). So the slope is real and the money is
not demonstrable. Those are different claims, and the gap between them is the spread:
a high β lives on wide books, and wide books are exactly where crossing costs
most — the rule fires on only 166 of 15,123 tradeable sides, and on those the
half-spread eats most of what β delivers. Resting a maker order would be cheaper,
and it is the one route we cannot validate: no wide-book maker fill has ever been
observed, by construction.
Verdict: not promoted. These stay displayed, capped at watch, and
the honest summary is that we have a well-measured edge with no demonstrated way to
collect it. Books tighter than 3c remain permanently no-bet. Best-of-5 remains
unverified (see the caution above).
Paper/analytical only — not financial advice.