Live · Updated Oct 4, 2026 9:48 PM ET

Derivatives

Exact model prices for spreads, totals and set scores, next to the books.

quotes 2 min old

Most desirable legs — ranked across every match

193 pick(s) highlighted where the engine holds an empirical edge (best edge +32.3pp). Sorted by best performing slices and model edge. Empirical tuning on ATP total games beats market mid by +20 mB on Bo3; tight Over totals (+51% taker ROI) and high-EV legs clear fees and sort to the top.

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	80%	0.53/0.54	—	≤79c	take @54c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 19.5 games - YES	68%	0.50/0.52	—	≤66c	take @52c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 20.5 games - YES	67%	0.51/0.52	—	≤65c	take @52c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 21.5 games - YES	63%	0.48/0.50	—	≤61c	take @50c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	54%	0.41/0.42	—	≤52c	take @42c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 20.5 games - YES	64%	0.52/0.53	—	≤63c	take @53c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 19.5 games - YES	70%	0.58/0.60	—	≤69c	take @60c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 20.5 games - YES	61%	0.49/0.51	—	≤59c	take @51c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	54%	0.43/0.44	—	≤52c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	53%	0.44/0.45	—	≤52c	take @45c

Derivative type

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar starts Oct 5, 1:00 AM

Set-1 Alcaraz 81% · Set-2 80% · straight sets 68% / 7% · expected games 21.3
Predicted score 2-0 69% · Exact sets — 2-0 69% · 2-1 17% · 1-2 8% · 0-2 7%
Total games — >14.5 95% · >19.5 57% · >24.5 34%
Chosen line — under 19.5 at 0.47 · fair 50% · usable +0.7pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 24.5 games - YES	34%	0.28/0.30	—	≤32c	take @30c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 19.5 games - YES	57%	0.53/0.54	—	≤56c	take @54c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Carlos Alcaraz -8.5 games - YES	14%	0.02/0.10	—	≤13c	take @10c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Carlos Alcaraz wins 2-1 - NO	84%	0.79/0.80	—	≤83c	take @80c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Carlos Alcaraz wins 2-0 - YES	71%	0.66/0.68	—	≤69c	take @68c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games - YES	49%	0.46/0.47	—	≤47c	take @47c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Jaume Munar wins 2-0 - YES	6%	0.04/0.05	—	≤6c	take @5c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Exact match score — Jaume Munar wins 2-1 - YES	7%	0.05/0.07	—	≤6c	make ≤6c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Jaume Munar — set 1 - YES	19%	0.18/0.19	—	≤18c	make ≤18c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Carlos Alcaraz — set 1 - YES	81%	0.80/0.82	—	≤80c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Jaume Munar — set 1 - NO	81%	0.81/0.82	—	≤80c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Jaume Munar — set 2 - NO	80%	0.79/0.81	—	≤79c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Carlos Alcaraz — set 2 - YES	80%	0.79/0.81	—	≤79c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Total games — Over 14.5 games - YES	95%	0.89/0.96	—	≤95c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Jaume Munar — set 2 - YES	20%	0.19/0.21	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Carlos Alcaraz — set 1 - NO	19%	0.18/0.20	—	≤18c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Set winner — Carlos Alcaraz — set 2 - NO	20%	0.19/0.21	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Exact match score — Jaume Munar wins 2-1 - NO	93%	0.93/0.95	—	≤93c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Exact match score — Jaume Munar wins 2-0 - NO	94%	0.95/0.96	—	≤93c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Spread (games) — Carlos Alcaraz -2.5 games - NO	20%	0.17/0.23	—	≤19c	make ≤20c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Spread (games) — Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games - NO	51%	0.53/0.54	—	≤49c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Spread (games) — Carlos Alcaraz -2.5 games - YES	80%	0.77/0.83	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Exact match score — Carlos Alcaraz wins 2-0 - NO	29%	0.32/0.34	—	≤28c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Exact match score — Carlos Alcaraz wins 2-1 - YES	16%	0.20/0.21	—	≤15c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Total games — Over 24.5 games - NO	66%	0.70/0.72	—	≤65c	make ≤66c
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Spread (games) — Carlos Alcaraz -8.5 games - NO	86%	0.90/0.98	—	≤85c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Total games — Over 19.5 games - NO	43%	0.46/0.47	—	≤41c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar	Oct 5, 1:00 AM	Total games — Over 14.5 games - NO	5%	0.04/0.11	—	≤5c	no order

Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Simakin 31% · Set-2 31% · straight sets 15% / 53% · expected games 22.3
Predicted score 0-2 53% · Exact sets — 2-0 15% · 2-1 13% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 53%
Total games — >17.5 80% · >22.5 47% · >27.5 30%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.49 · fair 61% · usable +3.5pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Luka Pavlovic — set 1 - YES	69%	0.35/0.37	—	≤68c	take @37c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Luka Pavlovic — set 2 - YES	69%	0.34/0.37	—	≤67c	take @37c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Ilia Simakin — set 2 - NO	69%	0.36/0.37	—	≤67c	take @37c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Ilia Simakin — set 1 - NO	69%	0.36/0.38	—	≤68c	take @38c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Ilia Simakin -3.5 games - YES	50%	0.43/0.44	—	≤48c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	53%	0.47/0.49	—	≤51c	take @49c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Luka Pavlovic wins 2-0 - YES	19%	0.16/0.17	—	≤18c	take @17c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Ilia Simakin wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.76/0.78	—	≤79c	take @78c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Luka Pavlovic -1.5 games - YES	30%	0.25/0.28	—	≤28c	take @28c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Ilia Simakin wins 2-0 - YES	46%	0.43/0.45	—	≤44c	make ≤44c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Luka Pavlovic wins 2-1 - NO	85%	0.83/0.86	—	≤84c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Luka Pavlovic wins 2-1 - YES	15%	0.14/0.17	—	≤14c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Ilia Simakin wins 2-0 - NO	54%	0.55/0.57	—	≤52c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Luka Pavlovic wins 2-0 - NO	81%	0.83/0.84	—	≤80c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Ilia Simakin -6.5 games - NO	96%	0.66/0.99	—	≤95c	make ≤95c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Ilia Simakin wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.22/0.24	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Luka Pavlovic -1.5 games - NO	70%	0.72/0.75	—	≤69c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	47%	0.51/0.53	—	≤45c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Ilia Simakin -3.5 games - NO	50%	0.56/0.57	—	≤49c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	70%	0.47/0.81	—	≤68c	make ≤69c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	80%	0.67/0.98	—	≤78c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	30%	0.19/0.53	—	≤29c	make ≤30c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Ilia Simakin -6.5 games - YES	4%	0.01/0.34	—	≤4c	make ≤4c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Ilia Simakin — set 2 - YES	31%	0.63/0.64	—	≤30c	make ≤31c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Ilia Simakin — set 1 - YES	31%	0.62/0.64	—	≤29c	make ≤30c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Luka Pavlovic — set 1 - NO	31%	0.63/0.65	—	≤29c	make ≤30c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Luka Pavlovic — set 2 - NO	31%	0.63/0.66	—	≤30c	make ≤31c
ATP Shanghai	Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	20%	0.02/0.33	—	≤19c	no order

Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Ymer 42% · Set-2 42% · straight sets 24% / 40% · expected games 23.2
Predicted score 0-2 40% · Exact sets — 2-0 23% · 2-1 16% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 40%
Total games — >14.5 98% · >19.5 70% · >24.5 46%
Chosen line — over 14.5 at 0.88 · fair 97% · usable +2.8pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 19.5 games - YES	70%	0.58/0.60	—	≤69c	take @60c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 24.5 games - YES	46%	0.26/0.33	—	≤44c	take @33c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 14.5 games - YES	98% MM: 94% · 23.0g · 8h	0.76/0.88	—	≤98c	take @88c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Mattia Bellucci — set 1 - NO	42%	0.19/0.22	—	≤40c	take @22c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Elias Ymer — set 1 - YES	42%	0.19/0.22	—	≤40c	take @22c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Mattia Bellucci — set 2 - NO	42%	0.18/0.23	—	≤40c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Elias Ymer — set 2 - YES	42%	0.18/0.23	—	≤40c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Mattia Bellucci -5.5 games - YES	51%	0.41/0.42	—	≤49c	take @42c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Mattia Bellucci wins 2-0 - YES	70%	0.64/0.65	—	≤68c	take @65c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Mattia Bellucci wins 2-1 - NO	84%	0.78/0.81	—	≤83c	take @81c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Elias Ymer wins 2-0 - YES	7%	0.06/0.07	—	≤6c	make ≤6c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Elias Ymer wins 2-0 - NO	93%	0.93/0.94	—	≤93c	make ≤93c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Elias Ymer wins 2-1 - YES	7%	0.06/0.08	—	≤7c	make ≤7c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Mattia Bellucci -2.5 games - YES	79%	0.76/0.80	—	≤78c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Elias Ymer wins 2-1 - NO	93%	0.92/0.94	—	≤92c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Mattia Bellucci -2.5 games - NO	21%	0.20/0.24	—	≤20c	make ≤20c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Mattia Bellucci -8.5 games - NO	95%	0.72/0.99	—	≤94c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Mattia Bellucci wins 2-0 - NO	31%	0.35/0.36	—	≤29c	make ≤30c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Mattia Bellucci wins 2-1 - YES	16%	0.19/0.22	—	≤15c	make ≤16c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Mattia Bellucci -5.5 games - NO	49%	0.58/0.59	—	≤48c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 24.5 games - NO	54%	0.67/0.74	—	≤52c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Elias Ymer — set 1 - NO	58%	0.78/0.81	—	≤57c	make ≤58c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Mattia Bellucci — set 1 - YES	58%	0.78/0.81	—	≤57c	make ≤58c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Mattia Bellucci -8.5 games - YES	5%	0.01/0.28	—	≤5c	make ≤5c
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Mattia Bellucci — set 2 - YES	58%	0.77/0.82	—	≤56c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Elias Ymer — set 2 - NO	58%	0.77/0.82	—	≤56c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 19.5 games - NO	30%	0.40/0.42	—	≤28c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 14.5 games - NO	2%	0.12/0.24	—	≤2c	no order

Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Basavareddy 65% · Set-2 65% · straight sets 48% / 18% · expected games 22.7
Predicted score 2-0 48% · Exact sets — 2-0 48% · 2-1 20% · 1-2 14% · 0-2 18%
Total games — >14.5 97% · >19.5 68% · >24.5 44%
Chosen line — over 19.5 at 0.52 · fair 60% · usable +2.4pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 19.5 games - YES	68%	0.50/0.52	—	≤66c	take @52c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Nishesh Basavareddy — set 1 - NO	35%	0.20/0.22	—	≤33c	take @22c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Kimmer Coppejans — set 1 - YES	35%	0.20/0.22	—	≤33c	take @22c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Kimmer Coppejans — set 2 - YES	35%	0.15/0.23	—	≤34c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Nishesh Basavareddy — set 2 - NO	35%	0.17/0.25	—	≤34c	take @25c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Nishesh Basavareddy wins 2-0 - YES	68%	0.64/0.65	—	≤67c	take @65c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Nishesh Basavareddy wins 2-1 - NO	83%	0.78/0.80	—	≤82c	take @80c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Kimmer Coppejans wins 2-0 - YES	7%	0.06/0.07	—	≤7c	make ≤6c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nishesh Basavareddy -2.5 games - NO	22%	0.19/0.22	—	≤21c	make ≤21c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nishesh Basavareddy -5.5 games - YES	49%	0.47/0.50	—	≤48c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Kimmer Coppejans wins 2-0 - NO	93%	0.93/0.94	—	≤92c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Kimmer Coppejans wins 2-1 - YES	8%	0.06/0.09	—	≤7c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 14.5 games - YES	97%	0.74/0.99	—	≤97c	make ≤97c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Kimmer Coppejans wins 2-1 - NO	92%	0.91/0.94	—	≤92c	make ≤92c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nishesh Basavareddy -5.5 games - NO	51%	0.50/0.53	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nishesh Basavareddy -2.5 games - YES	78%	0.78/0.81	—	≤77c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Nishesh Basavareddy wins 2-0 - NO	32%	0.35/0.36	—	≤30c	make ≤31c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Nishesh Basavareddy wins 2-1 - YES	17%	0.20/0.22	—	≤16c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nishesh Basavareddy -8.5 games - NO	93%	0.67/0.99	—	≤92c	make ≤92c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 24.5 games - YES	44% MM: 45% · 22.9g · 8h	0.09/0.50	—	≤42c	make ≤43c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Kimmer Coppejans — set 1 - NO	65%	0.78/0.80	—	≤64c	make ≤65c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Nishesh Basavareddy — set 1 - YES	65%	0.78/0.80	—	≤64c	make ≤65c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Nishesh Basavareddy — set 2 - YES	65%	0.75/0.83	—	≤63c	make ≤64c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Kimmer Coppejans — set 2 - NO	65%	0.77/0.85	—	≤63c	make ≤64c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nishesh Basavareddy -8.5 games - YES	7%	0.01/0.33	—	≤7c	make ≤7c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 24.5 games - NO	56%	0.50/0.91	—	≤55c	make ≤56c
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 19.5 games - NO	32%	0.48/0.50	—	≤31c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer Coppejans	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 14.5 games - NO	3%	0.01/0.26	—	≤2c	no order

Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Gomez 43% · Set-2 43% · straight sets 25% / 39% · expected games 22.6
Predicted score 0-2 39% · Exact sets — 2-0 25% · 2-1 17% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 39%
Total games — >15.5 94% · >20.5 61% · >25.5 41%
Chosen line — over 20.5 at 0.51 · fair 53% · usable +0.4pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 20.5 games - YES	61%	0.49/0.51	—	≤59c	take @51c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Michael Zheng — set 2 - NO	43%	0.19/0.21	—	≤42c	take @21c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Federico Agustin Gomez — set 2 - YES	43%	0.19/0.21	—	≤42c	take @21c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Federico Agustin Gomez — set 1 - YES	43%	0.21/0.22	—	≤41c	take @22c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Michael Zheng — set 1 - NO	43%	0.22/0.23	—	≤41c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Michael Zheng -5.5 games - YES	55%	0.38/0.41	—	≤53c	take @41c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Michael Zheng wins 2-0 - YES	70%	0.62/0.64	—	≤68c	take @64c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Michael Zheng -2.5 games - YES	80%	0.72/0.75	—	≤79c	take @75c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Michael Zheng wins 2-1 - NO	84%	0.77/0.79	—	≤83c	take @79c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Federico Agustin Gomez wins 2-1 - NO	93%	0.92/0.93	—	≤92c	make ≤92c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Federico Agustin Gomez wins 2-0 - YES	7%	0.06/0.07	—	≤6c	make ≤6c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Federico Agustin Gomez wins 2-1 - YES	7%	0.07/0.08	—	≤7c	make ≤7c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Federico Agustin Gomez wins 2-0 - NO	93%	0.93/0.94	—	≤93c	make ≤93c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 15.5 games - YES	94%	0.73/0.99	—	≤93c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Michael Zheng -8.5 games - NO	94%	0.73/0.99	—	≤93c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 25.5 games - YES	41%	0.09/0.47	—	≤39c	make ≤40c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Michael Zheng wins 2-1 - YES	16%	0.21/0.23	—	≤15c	make ≤16c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Michael Zheng wins 2-0 - NO	30%	0.36/0.38	—	≤29c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Michael Zheng -2.5 games - NO	20%	0.25/0.28	—	≤19c	make ≤19c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Michael Zheng -5.5 games - NO	45%	0.59/0.62	—	≤43c	make ≤44c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Michael Zheng -8.5 games - YES	6%	0.01/0.27	—	≤6c	make ≤6c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Michael Zheng — set 1 - YES	57%	0.77/0.78	—	≤55c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Federico Agustin Gomez — set 1 - NO	57%	0.78/0.79	—	≤55c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Federico Agustin Gomez — set 2 - NO	57%	0.79/0.81	—	≤55c	make ≤56c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Michael Zheng — set 2 - YES	57%	0.79/0.81	—	≤55c	make ≤56c
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 25.5 games - NO	59%	0.53/0.91	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 20.5 games - NO	39%	0.49/0.51	—	≤37c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael Zheng	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 15.5 games - NO	6%	0.01/0.27	—	≤6c	no order

Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Sakamoto 56% · Set-2 56% · straight sets 37% / 26% · expected games 23.6
Predicted score 2-0 37% · Exact sets — 2-0 37% · 2-1 20% · 1-2 17% · 0-2 26%
Total games — >15.5 96% · >20.5 67% · >25.5 45%
Chosen line — over 20.5 at 0.52 · fair 60% · usable +2.1pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 20.5 games - YES	67%	0.51/0.52	—	≤65c	take @52c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 25.5 games - YES	45%	0.27/0.37	—	≤43c	take @37c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Seongchan Hong — set 2 - YES	44%	0.25/0.29	—	≤43c	take @29c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Rei Sakamoto — set 2 - NO	44%	0.28/0.30	—	≤43c	take @30c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Seongchan Hong — set 1 - YES	44%	0.28/0.30	—	≤42c	take @30c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Rei Sakamoto — set 1 - NO	44%	0.28/0.31	—	≤42c	take @31c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Rei Sakamoto wins 2-0 - YES	58%	0.50/0.53	—	≤56c	take @53c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Rei Sakamoto -1.5 games - YES	73%	0.69/0.70	—	≤72c	take @70c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Rei Sakamoto wins 2-1 - NO	81%	0.75/0.79	—	≤80c	take @79c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Rei Sakamoto -4.5 games - YES	48%	0.47/0.48	—	≤47c	make ≤47c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Seongchan Hong wins 2-0 - NO	88%	0.87/0.89	—	≤87c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Seongchan Hong wins 2-1 - YES	11%	0.09/0.12	—	≤10c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Seongchan Hong wins 2-0 - YES	12%	0.11/0.13	—	≤11c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Rei Sakamoto -4.5 games - NO	52%	0.52/0.53	—	≤50c	make ≤51c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 15.5 games - YES	96%	0.74/0.98	—	≤96c	make ≤96c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Seongchan Hong wins 2-1 - NO	89%	0.88/0.91	—	≤88c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Rei Sakamoto -1.5 games - NO	27%	0.30/0.31	—	≤26c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rei Sakamoto wins 2-1 - YES	19%	0.21/0.25	—	≤18c	make ≤19c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Rei Sakamoto -7.5 games - NO	92%	0.67/0.99	—	≤92c	make ≤92c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rei Sakamoto wins 2-0 - NO	42%	0.47/0.50	—	≤41c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rei Sakamoto — set 1 - YES	56%	0.69/0.72	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Seongchan Hong — set 1 - NO	56%	0.70/0.72	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rei Sakamoto — set 2 - YES	56%	0.70/0.72	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 25.5 games - NO	55%	0.63/0.73	—	≤54c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Seongchan Hong — set 2 - NO	55%	0.71/0.75	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Rei Sakamoto -7.5 games - YES	8%	0.01/0.33	—	≤7c	make ≤7c
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 20.5 games - NO	33%	0.48/0.49	—	≤32c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan Hong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 15.5 games - NO	4%	0.02/0.26	—	≤4c	no order

Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Bolt 38% · Set-2 39% · straight sets 20% / 44% · expected games 23.6
Predicted score 0-2 44% · Exact sets — 2-0 20% · 2-1 16% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 44%
Total games — >16.5 92% · >21.5 63% · >26.5 39%
Chosen line — over 21.5 at 0.50 · fair 55% · usable +1.3pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 21.5 games - YES	63%	0.48/0.50	—	≤61c	take @50c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Lloyd Harris — set 1 - NO	38%	0.20/0.23	—	≤36c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alex Bolt — set 1 - YES	38%	0.20/0.23	—	≤36c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alex Bolt — set 2 - YES	39%	0.20/0.27	—	≤37c	take @27c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Lloyd Harris -4.5 games - YES	54%	0.42/0.43	—	≤52c	take @43c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Lloyd Harris — set 2 - NO	39%	0.21/0.28	—	≤37c	take @28c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Lloyd Harris wins 2-0 - YES	65%	0.61/0.62	—	≤64c	take @62c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Lloyd Harris wins 2-1 - NO	82%	0.78/0.80	—	≤81c	take @80c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alex Bolt wins 2-0 - YES	8%	0.07/0.08	—	≤8c	make ≤7c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lloyd Harris -7.5 games - NO	91%	0.84/0.91	—	≤90c	make ≤90c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alex Bolt wins 2-1 - YES	9%	0.07/0.09	—	≤8c	make ≤8c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alex Bolt wins 2-0 - NO	92%	0.92/0.93	—	≤91c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alex Bolt wins 2-1 - NO	91%	0.91/0.93	—	≤91c	make ≤91c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lloyd Harris -1.5 games - YES	79%	0.76/0.81	—	≤78c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lloyd Harris -1.5 games - NO	21%	0.19/0.24	—	≤20c	make ≤20c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Lloyd Harris wins 2-1 - YES	18%	0.20/0.22	—	≤17c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Lloyd Harris wins 2-0 - NO	35%	0.38/0.39	—	≤33c	make ≤34c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - YES	92%	0.66/0.99	—	≤92c	make ≤92c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lloyd Harris -7.5 games - YES	9%	0.09/0.16	—	≤8c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - YES	39%	0.06/0.47	—	≤37c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lloyd Harris -4.5 games - NO	46%	0.57/0.58	—	≤45c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Lloyd Harris — set 2 - YES	61%	0.72/0.79	—	≤60c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alex Bolt — set 1 - NO	62%	0.77/0.80	—	≤60c	make ≤61c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Lloyd Harris — set 1 - YES	62%	0.77/0.80	—	≤60c	make ≤61c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alex Bolt — set 2 - NO	61%	0.73/0.80	—	≤60c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - NO	61%	0.53/0.94	—	≤59c	make ≤60c
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 21.5 games - NO	37%	0.50/0.52	—	≤36c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - NO	8%	0.01/0.34	—	≤7c	no order

Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Svrcina 51% · Set-2 51% · straight sets 32% / 30% · expected games 23.3
Predicted score 2-0 32% · Exact sets — 2-0 32% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 18% · 0-2 30%
Total games — >17.5 86% · >22.5 54% · >27.5 36%
Chosen line — over 22.5 at 0.44 · fair 46% · usable +0.3pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	54%	0.43/0.44	—	≤52c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Billy Harris — set 2 - YES	49%	0.31/0.35	—	≤47c	take @35c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Dalibor Svrcina — set 1 - NO	49%	0.34/0.35	—	≤47c	take @35c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Billy Harris — set 1 - YES	49%	0.33/0.35	—	≤47c	take @35c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Dalibor Svrcina — set 2 - NO	49%	0.34/0.36	—	≤47c	take @36c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Dalibor Svrcina wins 2-0 - YES	50%	0.45/0.46	—	≤48c	take @46c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Dalibor Svrcina wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.75/0.77	—	≤79c	take @77c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Dalibor Svrcina -3.5 games - NO	47%	0.45/0.46	—	≤45c	make ≤45c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Billy Harris wins 2-0 - YES	16%	0.14/0.16	—	≤16c	make ≤15c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Billy Harris wins 2-1 - NO	86%	0.85/0.87	—	≤86c	make ≤86c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Billy Harris -1.5 games - YES	26%	0.22/0.27	—	≤25c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Billy Harris wins 2-1 - YES	14%	0.13/0.15	—	≤13c	make ≤13c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Dalibor Svrcina -3.5 games - YES	53%	0.54/0.55	—	≤51c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Billy Harris wins 2-0 - NO	84%	0.84/0.86	—	≤82c	make ≤83c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Billy Harris -1.5 games - NO	74%	0.73/0.78	—	≤73c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	36%	0.09/0.40	—	≤34c	make ≤35c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Dalibor Svrcina wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.23/0.25	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Dalibor Svrcina wins 2-0 - NO	50%	0.54/0.55	—	≤48c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	46%	0.56/0.57	—	≤44c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Dalibor Svrcina -6.5 games - NO	88%	0.63/0.99	—	≤87c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	86%	0.63/0.98	—	≤85c	make ≤85c
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Dalibor Svrcina — set 1 - YES	51%	0.65/0.66	—	≤49c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Dalibor Svrcina — set 2 - YES	51%	0.64/0.66	—	≤49c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Billy Harris — set 1 - NO	51%	0.65/0.67	—	≤49c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Billy Harris — set 2 - NO	51%	0.65/0.69	—	≤49c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Dalibor Svrcina -6.5 games - YES	12%	0.01/0.37	—	≤11c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	64%	0.60/0.91	—	≤63c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy Harris	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	15%	0.02/0.37	—	≤14c	no order

Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Zhang 26% · Set-2 27% · straight sets 12% / 58% · expected games 22.3
Predicted score 0-2 58% · Exact sets — 2-0 12% · 2-1 11% · 1-2 19% · 0-2 58%
Total games — >17.5 80% · >22.5 46%
Chosen line — over 17.5 at 0.54 · fair 74% · usable +6.4pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	80%	0.53/0.54	—	≤79c	take @54c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	46% MM: 48% · 22.5g · 7h	0.02/0.40	—	≤45c	take @40c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Kyrian Jacquet -6.5 games - NO	74%	0.49/0.50	—	≤72c	take @50c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Tianhui Zhang — set 1 - YES	26%	0.08/0.10	—	≤25c	take @10c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Kyrian Jacquet — set 1 - NO	26%	0.09/0.11	—	≤25c	take @11c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Kyrian Jacquet — set 2 - NO	27%	0.11/0.12	—	≤26c	take @12c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Tianhui Zhang — set 2 - YES	27%	0.07/0.12	—	≤26c	take @12c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Kyrian Jacquet -9.5 games - NO	95%	0.88/0.91	—	≤95c	take @91c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Kyrian Jacquet wins 2-0 - YES	85%	0.80/0.81	—	≤84c	take @81c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Kyrian Jacquet wins 2-1 - NO	90%	0.86/0.88	—	≤89c	take @88c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Tianhui Zhang wins 2-1 - YES	3%	0.01/0.02	—	≤3c	take @2c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Tianhui Zhang wins 2-0 - YES	2%	0.00/0.03	—	≤2c	make ≤2c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Tianhui Zhang wins 2-1 - NO	97%	0.98/0.99	—	≤97c	make ≤97c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Tianhui Zhang wins 2-0 - NO	98%	0.97/1.00	—	≤98c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Kyrian Jacquet wins 2-1 - YES	10%	0.12/0.14	—	≤10c	make ≤10c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Kyrian Jacquet -3.5 games - NO	14%	0.09/0.18	—	≤13c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Kyrian Jacquet wins 2-0 - NO	15%	0.19/0.20	—	≤14c	make ≤15c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Kyrian Jacquet -3.5 games - YES	86%	0.82/0.91	—	≤85c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Kyrian Jacquet -9.5 games - YES	5%	0.09/0.12	—	≤5c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Kyrian Jacquet — set 2 - YES	73%	0.88/0.89	—	≤71c	make ≤72c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Kyrian Jacquet — set 1 - YES	74%	0.89/0.91	—	≤72c	make ≤73c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Tianhui Zhang — set 1 - NO	74%	0.90/0.92	—	≤72c	make ≤73c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Tianhui Zhang — set 2 - NO	73%	0.88/0.93	—	≤71c	make ≤72c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Kyrian Jacquet -6.5 games - YES	26%	0.50/0.51	—	≤25c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	53%	0.60/0.98	—	≤52c	make ≤53c
ATP Shanghai	Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian Jacquet	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	20%	0.46/0.47	—	≤19c	no order

Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Galarneau 38% · Set-2 38% · straight sets 20% / 44% · expected games 23.2
Predicted score 0-2 45% · Exact sets — 2-0 20% · 2-1 15% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 45%
Total games — >15.5 95% · >20.5 64% · >25.5 42%
Chosen line — over 20.5 at 0.53 · fair 57% · usable +0.9pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 20.5 games - YES	64%	0.52/0.53	—	≤63c	take @53c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 25.5 games - YES	42%	0.25/0.33	—	≤41c	take @33c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Roman Safiullin — set 1 - NO	38%	0.22/0.23	—	≤36c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alexis Galarneau — set 1 - YES	38%	0.22/0.23	—	≤36c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Roman Safiullin — set 2 - NO	38%	0.23/0.24	—	≤36c	take @24c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alexis Galarneau — set 2 - YES	38%	0.21/0.24	—	≤36c	take @24c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Roman Safiullin -5.5 games - YES	47%	0.34/0.35	—	≤45c	take @35c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Roman Safiullin wins 2-0 - YES	68%	0.60/0.62	—	≤66c	take @62c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Roman Safiullin wins 2-1 - NO	83%	0.77/0.79	—	≤82c	take @79c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Roman Safiullin -2.5 games - YES	77%	0.71/0.75	—	≤76c	take @75c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexis Galarneau wins 2-1 - NO	92%	0.91/0.93	—	≤92c	make ≤92c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexis Galarneau wins 2-0 - YES	7%	0.06/0.08	—	≤7c	make ≤7c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexis Galarneau wins 2-1 - YES	8%	0.07/0.09	—	≤7c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexis Galarneau wins 2-0 - NO	93%	0.92/0.94	—	≤92c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 15.5 games - YES	95%	0.75/0.99	—	≤95c	make ≤95c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Roman Safiullin -8.5 games - NO	94%	0.74/0.99	—	≤94c	make ≤94c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Roman Safiullin wins 2-1 - YES	17%	0.21/0.23	—	≤16c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Roman Safiullin -2.5 games - NO	23%	0.25/0.29	—	≤21c	make ≤22c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Roman Safiullin wins 2-0 - NO	32%	0.38/0.40	—	≤31c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Roman Safiullin -5.5 games - NO	53%	0.65/0.66	—	≤51c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Roman Safiullin — set 2 - YES	62%	0.76/0.77	—	≤60c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexis Galarneau — set 1 - NO	62%	0.77/0.78	—	≤61c	make ≤62c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Roman Safiullin — set 1 - YES	62%	0.77/0.78	—	≤61c	make ≤62c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexis Galarneau — set 2 - NO	62%	0.76/0.79	—	≤60c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 25.5 games - NO	58%	0.67/0.75	—	≤56c	make ≤57c
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Roman Safiullin -8.5 games - YES	6%	0.01/0.26	—	≤5c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 20.5 games - NO	36%	0.47/0.48	—	≤34c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Alexis Galarneau vs Roman Safiullin	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 15.5 games - NO	5%	0.01/0.25	—	≤4c	no order

Rigele Te vs Adam Walton starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Te 23% · Set-2 24% · straight sets 9% / 63% · expected games 21.7
Predicted score 0-2 63% · Exact sets — 2-0 9% · 2-1 9% · 1-2 18% · 0-2 63%
Total games — >18.5 68% · >23.5 38%
Chosen line — over 23.5 at 0.25 · fair 31% · usable +1.6pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 18.5 games - YES	68%	0.59/0.60	—	≤66c	take @60c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 23.5 games - YES	38%	0.17/0.25	—	≤36c	take @25c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Adam Walton -5.5 games - YES	65%	0.46/0.47	—	≤64c	take @47c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Adam Walton — set 2 - NO	24%	0.12/0.13	—	≤22c	take @13c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Rigele TE — set 2 - YES	24%	0.10/0.13	—	≤22c	take @13c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Rigele TE — set 1 - YES	23%	0.11/0.13	—	≤22c	take @13c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Adam Walton — set 1 - NO	23%	0.12/0.13	—	≤22c	take @13c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Adam Walton wins 2-0 - YES	83%	0.74/0.75	—	≤82c	take @75c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Adam Walton wins 2-1 - NO	89%	0.82/0.84	—	≤88c	take @84c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Adam Walton -2.5 games - YES	90%	0.85/0.88	—	≤89c	take @88c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Adam Walton -8.5 games - YES	13%	0.09/0.11	—	≤12c	take @11c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rigele TE wins 2-1 - NO	97%	0.95/0.98	—	≤96c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rigele TE wins 2-0 - YES	3%	0.01/0.04	—	≤2c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rigele TE wins 2-1 - YES	3%	0.02/0.05	—	≤3c	make ≤3c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rigele TE wins 2-0 - NO	97%	0.96/0.99	—	≤97c	make ≤97c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Adam Walton -8.5 games - NO	87%	0.89/0.91	—	≤86c	make ≤87c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Adam Walton -2.5 games - NO	10%	0.12/0.15	—	≤9c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Adam Walton wins 2-1 - YES	11%	0.16/0.18	—	≤11c	make ≤11c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Adam Walton wins 2-0 - NO	17%	0.25/0.26	—	≤16c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Adam Walton — set 1 - YES	77%	0.87/0.88	—	≤76c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Adam Walton — set 2 - YES	76%	0.87/0.88	—	≤75c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rigele TE — set 1 - NO	77%	0.87/0.89	—	≤76c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rigele TE — set 2 - NO	76%	0.87/0.90	—	≤75c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Adam Walton -5.5 games - NO	35%	0.53/0.54	—	≤33c	make ≤34c
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 23.5 games - NO	62%	0.75/0.83	—	≤61c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rigele Te vs Adam Walton	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 18.5 games - NO	32%	0.40/0.41	—	≤31c	no order

Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Tomic 40% · Set-2 40% · straight sets 22% / 42% · expected games 23.4
Predicted score 0-2 42% · Exact sets — 2-0 22% · 2-1 16% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 42%
Total games — >18.5 79% · >23.5 48% · >28.5 32%
Chosen line — under 23.5 at 0.59 · fair 60% · usable -0.2pp · not actionable

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 23.5 games - YES	48%	0.41/0.42	—	≤46c	take @42c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 1 - NO	40%	0.31/0.33	—	≤38c	take @33c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Bernard Tomic — set 1 - YES	40%	0.30/0.33	—	≤38c	take @33c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 2 - NO	40%	0.33/0.34	—	≤39c	take @34c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Bernard Tomic — set 2 - YES	40%	0.30/0.34	—	≤39c	take @34c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Terence Atmane -3.5 games - YES	54%	0.49/0.50	—	≤52c	take @50c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-0 - YES	52%	0.48/0.49	—	≤50c	take @49c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.76/0.79	—	≤79c	make ≤78c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Bernard Tomic wins 2-0 - YES	15%	0.13/0.15	—	≤14c	make ≤14c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Bernard Tomic -1.5 games - YES	24%	0.21/0.24	—	≤23c	make ≤23c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Bernard Tomic wins 2-1 - NO	87%	0.85/0.88	—	≤86c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Bernard Tomic wins 2-0 - NO	85%	0.85/0.87	—	≤84c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Bernard Tomic wins 2-1 - YES	13%	0.12/0.15	—	≤12c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Bernard Tomic -1.5 games - NO	76%	0.76/0.79	—	≤75c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.21/0.24	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Terence Atmane wins 2-0 - NO	48%	0.51/0.52	—	≤46c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Terence Atmane -3.5 games - NO	46%	0.50/0.51	—	≤44c	make ≤45c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 23.5 games - NO	52%	0.58/0.59	—	≤50c	make ≤51c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 2 - YES	60%	0.66/0.67	—	≤58c	make ≤59c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Terence Atmane — set 1 - YES	60%	0.67/0.69	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Bernard Tomic — set 1 - NO	60%	0.67/0.70	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Bernard Tomic — set 2 - NO	60%	0.66/0.70	—	≤58c	make ≤59c
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Terence Atmane -6.5 games - NO	84%	0.64/0.95	—	≤83c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 28.5 games - YES	32%	0.09/0.46	—	≤31c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 18.5 games - YES	79%	0.60/0.98	—	≤78c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Terence Atmane -6.5 games - YES	16%	0.05/0.36	—	≤15c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 28.5 games - NO	68%	0.54/0.91	—	≤66c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Bernard Tomic vs Terence Atmane	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 18.5 games - NO	21%	0.02/0.40	—	≤20c	no order

Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Nishioka 42% · Set-2 43% · straight sets 24% / 39% · expected games 23.3
Predicted score 0-2 39% · Exact sets — 2-0 24% · 2-1 17% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 39%
Total games — >17.5 85% · >22.5 53% · >27.5 35%
Chosen line — over 22.5 at 0.45 · fair 46% · usable -0.2pp · not actionable

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	53%	0.44/0.45	—	≤52c	take @45c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Yoshihito Nishioka — set 2 - YES	43%	0.36/0.39	—	≤41c	take @39c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alexander Shevchenko — set 2 - NO	43%	0.38/0.40	—	≤41c	take @40c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alexander Shevchenko — set 1 - NO	43%	0.38/0.40	—	≤41c	take @40c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Yoshihito Nishioka — set 1 - YES	42%	0.37/0.40	—	≤41c	take @40c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Alexander Shevchenko wins 2-0 - YES	45%	0.41/0.43	—	≤43c	take @43c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexander Shevchenko -3.5 games - YES	48%	0.46/0.47	—	≤46c	make ≤46c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Yoshihito Nishioka wins 2-1 - NO	85%	0.83/0.85	—	≤84c	make ≤84c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexander Shevchenko wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.77/0.80	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Yoshihito Nishioka wins 2-0 - YES	20%	0.18/0.21	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Yoshihito Nishioka -1.5 games - YES	31%	0.28/0.32	—	≤29c	make ≤30c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexander Shevchenko -3.5 games - NO	52%	0.53/0.54	—	≤51c	make ≤52c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Yoshihito Nishioka wins 2-1 - YES	15%	0.15/0.17	—	≤14c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Yoshihito Nishioka wins 2-0 - NO	80%	0.79/0.82	—	≤79c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Yoshihito Nishioka -1.5 games - NO	69%	0.68/0.72	—	≤68c	make ≤69c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexander Shevchenko wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.20/0.23	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexander Shevchenko wins 2-0 - NO	55%	0.57/0.59	—	≤53c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexander Shevchenko — set 1 - YES	57%	0.60/0.62	—	≤56c	make ≤57c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexander Shevchenko — set 2 - YES	57%	0.60/0.62	—	≤55c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Yoshihito Nishioka — set 1 - NO	57%	0.60/0.63	—	≤56c	make ≤57c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Yoshihito Nishioka — set 2 - NO	57%	0.61/0.64	—	≤55c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	47%	0.55/0.56	—	≤45c	make ≤46c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	85%	0.63/0.98	—	≤84c	make ≤85c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexander Shevchenko -6.5 games - NO	85%	0.64/0.99	—	≤84c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	35%	0.11/0.50	—	≤34c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexander Shevchenko -6.5 games - YES	15%	0.01/0.36	—	≤14c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	65%	0.50/0.89	—	≤63c	make ≤64c
ATP Shanghai	Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr Shevchenko	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	15%	0.02/0.37	—	≤14c	no order

Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Tseng 50% · Set-2 50% · straight sets 31% / 32% · expected games 23.3
Predicted score 0-2 32% · Exact sets — 2-0 31% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 19% · 0-2 32%
Total games — >17.5 86% · >22.5 54% · >27.5 36%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.54 · fair 54% · usable -0.5pp · not actionable

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	54%	0.46/0.47	—	≤52c	take @47c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Nicolas Mejia — set 1 - YES	50%	0.41/0.42	—	≤48c	take @42c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Nicolas Mejia — set 2 - YES	50%	0.41/0.43	—	≤48c	take @43c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Chun Hsin Tseng — set 1 - NO	50%	0.42/0.43	—	≤48c	take @43c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Chun Hsin Tseng — set 2 - NO	50%	0.43/0.44	—	≤48c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Chun Hsin Tseng wins 2-0 - NO	61%	0.58/0.59	—	≤59c	take @59c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Nicolas Mejia wins 2-0 - YES	24%	0.21/0.23	—	≤23c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nicolas Mejia -1.5 games - YES	36%	0.34/0.36	—	≤35c	make ≤35c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Chun Hsin Tseng -2.5 games - YES	49%	0.47/0.49	—	≤47c	make ≤48c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Chun Hsin Tseng wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.79/0.80	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Nicolas Mejia wins 2-1 - NO	83%	0.82/0.84	—	≤82c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Chun Hsin Tseng wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.20/0.21	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Nicolas Mejia wins 2-1 - YES	17%	0.16/0.18	—	≤16c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Chun Hsin Tseng -2.5 games - NO	51%	0.51/0.53	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nicolas Mejia -1.5 games - NO	64%	0.64/0.66	—	≤62c	make ≤63c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Chun Hsin Tseng wins 2-0 - YES	39%	0.41/0.42	—	≤37c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Nicolas Mejia wins 2-0 - NO	76%	0.77/0.79	—	≤74c	make ≤75c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Chun Hsin Tseng — set 2 - YES	50%	0.56/0.57	—	≤48c	make ≤49c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	46%	0.53/0.54	—	≤44c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Chun Hsin Tseng — set 1 - YES	50%	0.57/0.58	—	≤48c	make ≤49c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Nicolas Mejia — set 1 - NO	50%	0.58/0.59	—	≤48c	make ≤49c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Nicolas Mejia — set 2 - NO	50%	0.57/0.59	—	≤48c	make ≤49c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	86%	0.65/0.98	—	≤85c	make ≤85c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	36%	0.17/0.50	—	≤34c	make ≤35c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Chun Hsin Tseng -5.5 games - YES	23%	0.02/0.41	—	≤22c	make ≤23c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	64%	0.50/0.83	—	≤63c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Chun Hsin Tseng -5.5 games - NO	77%	0.59/0.98	—	≤75c	make ≤76c
ATP Shanghai	Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	15%	0.02/0.35	—	≤14c	no order

Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Damm 60% · Set-2 60% · straight sets 42% / 22% · expected games 23.5
Predicted score 2-0 42% · Exact sets — 2-0 42% · 2-1 20% · 1-2 16% · 0-2 22%
Total games — >17.5 86% · >22.5 55% · >27.5 36%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.46 · fair 53% · usable +2.0pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Martin Damm Jr -3.5 games - YES	47%	0.37/0.39	—	≤45c	take @39c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Pavel Kotov — set 1 - YES	40%	0.34/0.37	—	≤38c	take @37c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Martin Damm Jr — set 1 - NO	40%	0.35/0.37	—	≤38c	take @37c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Pavel Kotov — set 2 - YES	40%	0.35/0.38	—	≤39c	take @38c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Martin Damm Jr wins 2-0 - YES	46%	0.42/0.44	—	≤44c	make ≤43c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Martin Damm Jr — set 2 - NO	40%	0.37/0.39	—	≤39c	make ≤38c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Martin Damm Jr wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.74/0.79	—	≤79c	make ≤78c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Pavel Kotov wins 2-0 - YES	19%	0.18/0.19	—	≤18c	make ≤18c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	45%	0.44/0.46	—	≤44c	make ≤45c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Pavel Kotov wins 2-1 - NO	85%	0.84/0.86	—	≤84c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Pavel Kotov wins 2-1 - YES	15%	0.14/0.16	—	≤14c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Pavel Kotov wins 2-0 - NO	81%	0.81/0.82	—	≤80c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	55%	0.54/0.56	—	≤53c	make ≤54c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Martin Damm Jr — set 2 - YES	60%	0.61/0.63	—	≤58c	make ≤59c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Martin Damm Jr wins 2-0 - NO	54%	0.56/0.58	—	≤53c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Martin Damm Jr — set 1 - YES	60%	0.63/0.65	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Pavel Kotov — set 2 - NO	60%	0.62/0.65	—	≤58c	make ≤59c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Martin Damm Jr wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.21/0.26	—	≤19c	make ≤20c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Pavel Kotov — set 1 - NO	60%	0.63/0.66	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	64%	0.57/0.70	—	≤62c	make ≤63c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	36%	0.30/0.43	—	≤35c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Pavel Kotov -1.5 games - YES	29%	0.12/0.37	—	≤28c	make ≤29c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Martin Damm Jr -3.5 games - NO	53%	0.61/0.63	—	≤51c	make ≤52c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	86%	0.71/0.98	—	≤86c	make ≤86c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Martin Damm Jr -6.5 games - YES	15%	0.01/0.29	—	≤14c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Martin Damm Jr -6.5 games - NO	85%	0.71/0.99	—	≤84c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Pavel Kotov -1.5 games - NO	71%	0.63/0.88	—	≤69c	make ≤70c
ATP Shanghai	Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	14%	0.02/0.29	—	≤13c	no order

Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Sweeny 49% · Set-2 49% · straight sets 30% / 32% · expected games 23.7
Predicted score 0-2 32% · Exact sets — 2-0 30% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 19% · 0-2 32%
Total games — >17.5 87% · >22.5 56% · >27.5 37%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.52 · fair 52% · usable -0.4pp · not actionable

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	56%	0.48/0.50	—	≤54c	take @50c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Dane Sweeny — set 1 - YES	49%	0.41/0.44	—	≤47c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Tristan Schoolkate — set 1 - NO	49%	0.42/0.45	—	≤47c	take @45c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Tristan Schoolkate — set 2 - NO	49%	0.43/0.46	—	≤47c	take @46c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Dane Sweeny — set 2 - YES	49%	0.43/0.46	—	≤47c	take @46c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Tristan Schoolkate wins 2-0 - YES	38%	0.35/0.36	—	≤36c	take @36c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Dane Sweeny wins 2-0 - YES	25%	0.23/0.24	—	≤24c	make ≤23c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Tristan Schoolkate wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.79/0.80	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Dane Sweeny wins 2-1 - NO	83%	0.80/0.83	—	≤82c	make ≤82c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Tristan Schoolkate -2.5 games - NO	52%	0.50/0.53	—	≤51c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Dane Sweeny -1.5 games - YES	37%	0.35/0.38	—	≤35c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Tristan Schoolkate wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.20/0.21	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Dane Sweeny wins 2-0 - NO	75%	0.76/0.77	—	≤74c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Dane Sweeny -1.5 games - NO	63%	0.62/0.65	—	≤61c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Tristan Schoolkate -2.5 games - YES	48%	0.47/0.50	—	≤46c	make ≤47c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Dane Sweeny wins 2-1 - YES	17%	0.17/0.20	—	≤16c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Tristan Schoolkate wins 2-0 - NO	62%	0.64/0.65	—	≤60c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Tristan Schoolkate — set 2 - YES	51%	0.54/0.57	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Dane Sweeny — set 2 - NO	51%	0.54/0.57	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Tristan Schoolkate — set 1 - YES	51%	0.55/0.58	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	44%	0.50/0.52	—	≤43c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Dane Sweeny — set 1 - NO	51%	0.56/0.59	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	87%	0.64/0.99	—	≤86c	make ≤87c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	37%	0.16/0.52	—	≤35c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Tristan Schoolkate -5.5 games - YES	21%	0.01/0.41	—	≤20c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Tristan Schoolkate -5.5 games - NO	79%	0.59/0.99	—	≤78c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	63%	0.48/0.84	—	≤61c	make ≤62c
ATP Shanghai	Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	13%	0.01/0.36	—	≤12c	no order

Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Cui 29% · Set-2 30% · straight sets 14% / 55% · expected games 22.5
Predicted score 0-2 55% · Exact sets — 2-0 14% · 2-1 12% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 55%
Total games — >16.5 88% · >21.5 55% · >26.5 34%
Chosen line — under 21.5 at 0.47 · fair 53% · usable +1.5pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Jie Cui — set 1 - NO	71%	0.63/0.65	—	≤69c	take @65c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Aleksandar Vukic — set 1 - YES	71%	0.62/0.65	—	≤69c	take @65c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Aleksandar Vukic wins 2-0 - YES	49%	0.43/0.44	—	≤47c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Aleksandar Vukic — set 2 - YES	70%	0.63/0.66	—	≤69c	take @66c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Jie Cui — set 2 - NO	70%	0.64/0.67	—	≤69c	take @67c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Aleksandar Vukic -3.5 games - YES	51%	0.47/0.49	—	≤49c	take @49c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Aleksandar Vukic wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.75/0.78	—	≤79c	take @78c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Jie Cui wins 2-1 - NO	86%	0.84/0.86	—	≤85c	make ≤85c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Jie Cui wins 2-0 - YES	17%	0.16/0.17	—	≤16c	make ≤16c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 21.5 games - YES	55%	0.53/0.55	—	≤53c	make ≤54c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Jie Cui -1.5 games - YES	27%	0.25/0.27	—	≤25c	make ≤26c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Jie Cui wins 2-0 - NO	83%	0.83/0.84	—	≤82c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Jie Cui -1.5 games - NO	73%	0.73/0.75	—	≤72c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - YES	34%	0.28/0.36	—	≤33c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Jie Cui wins 2-1 - YES	14%	0.14/0.16	—	≤13c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Aleksandar Vukic -3.5 games - NO	49%	0.51/0.53	—	≤47c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Aleksandar Vukic wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.22/0.25	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Aleksandar Vukic wins 2-0 - NO	51%	0.56/0.57	—	≤49c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Jie Cui — set 2 - YES	30%	0.33/0.36	—	≤28c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - NO	66%	0.64/0.72	—	≤64c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Aleksandar Vukic — set 2 - NO	30%	0.34/0.37	—	≤28c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Jie Cui — set 1 - YES	29%	0.35/0.37	—	≤28c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Aleksandar Vukic — set 1 - NO	29%	0.35/0.38	—	≤28c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - YES	88%	0.72/0.99	—	≤87c	make ≤88c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Aleksandar Vukic -6.5 games - YES	24%	0.03/0.36	—	≤23c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Aleksandar Vukic -6.5 games - NO	76%	0.64/0.97	—	≤74c	make ≤75c
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 21.5 games - NO	45%	0.45/0.47	—	≤43c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - NO	12%	0.01/0.28	—	≤11c	no order

Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Hewitt 32% · Set-2 32% · straight sets 15% / 52% · expected games 22.8
Predicted score 0-2 52% · Exact sets — 2-0 15% · 2-1 13% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 52%
Total games — >16.5 89% · >21.5 57% · >26.5 35%
Chosen line — over 21.5 at 0.49 · fair 49% · usable -0.5pp · not actionable

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 21.5 games - YES	57%	0.47/0.49	—	≤55c	take @49c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Coleman Wong -4.5 games - YES	52%	0.44/0.45	—	≤51c	take @45c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Coleman Wong wins 2-0 - YES	61%	0.55/0.56	—	≤60c	take @56c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Cruz Hewitt — set 1 - YES	32%	0.25/0.28	—	≤30c	take @28c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Coleman Wong — set 1 - NO	32%	0.26/0.28	—	≤30c	take @28c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Coleman Wong wins 2-1 - NO	81%	0.77/0.78	—	≤80c	take @78c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Cruz Hewitt — set 2 - YES	32%	0.23/0.29	—	≤31c	take @29c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Coleman Wong — set 2 - NO	32%	0.24/0.31	—	≤31c	make ≤30c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Cruz Hewitt wins 2-0 - YES	10%	0.09/0.10	—	≤9c	make ≤9c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Coleman Wong -1.5 games - YES	76%	0.73/0.77	—	≤75c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Cruz Hewitt wins 2-1 - NO	90%	0.89/0.91	—	≤89c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Cruz Hewitt wins 2-1 - YES	10%	0.09/0.11	—	≤9c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Cruz Hewitt wins 2-0 - NO	90%	0.90/0.91	—	≤89c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Coleman Wong -1.5 games - NO	24%	0.23/0.27	—	≤23c	make ≤23c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Coleman Wong wins 2-1 - YES	19%	0.22/0.23	—	≤18c	make ≤18c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Coleman Wong — set 1 - YES	68%	0.72/0.74	—	≤67c	make ≤68c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Coleman Wong wins 2-0 - NO	39%	0.44/0.45	—	≤37c	make ≤38c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Cruz Hewitt — set 1 - NO	68%	0.72/0.75	—	≤67c	make ≤68c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Coleman Wong — set 2 - YES	68%	0.69/0.76	—	≤66c	make ≤67c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Coleman Wong -4.5 games - NO	48%	0.55/0.56	—	≤46c	make ≤47c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Cruz Hewitt — set 2 - NO	68%	0.71/0.77	—	≤66c	make ≤67c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - YES	89%	0.67/0.99	—	≤88c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Coleman Wong -7.5 games - NO	86%	0.67/0.99	—	≤85c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - YES	35%	0.09/0.49	—	≤34c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Coleman Wong -7.5 games - YES	14%	0.01/0.33	—	≤13c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - NO	65%	0.51/0.91	—	≤63c	make ≤64c
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 21.5 games - NO	43%	0.51/0.53	—	≤42c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman Wong	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - NO	11%	0.01/0.33	—	≤10c	no order

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Mochizuki 49% · Set-2 49% · straight sets 30% / 32% · expected games 23.4
Predicted score 0-2 32% · Exact sets — 2-0 30% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 19% · 0-2 32%
Total games — >17.5 86% · >22.5 54% · >27.5 36%
Chosen line — over 22.5 at 0.46 · fair 46% · usable -0.3pp · not actionable

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	54%	0.45/0.46	—	≤52c	take @46c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Shintaro Mochizuki — set 1 - YES	49%	0.43/0.44	—	≤47c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Shintaro Mochizuki — set 2 - YES	49%	0.44/0.45	—	≤47c	take @45c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Taro Daniel — set 1 - NO	49%	0.43/0.45	—	≤47c	take @45c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Taro Daniel — set 2 - NO	49%	0.44/0.46	—	≤47c	take @46c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Taro Daniel wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.77/0.79	—	≤79c	take @79c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Taro Daniel wins 2-0 - YES	38%	0.34/0.37	—	≤37c	make ≤36c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Shintaro Mochizuki wins 2-1 - NO	83%	0.80/0.82	—	≤82c	make ≤81c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Taro Daniel -2.5 games - NO	52%	0.50/0.52	—	≤50c	make ≤51c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Shintaro Mochizuki wins 2-0 - YES	25%	0.22/0.25	—	≤24c	make ≤24c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Taro Daniel -2.5 games - YES	48%	0.48/0.50	—	≤46c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Shintaro Mochizuki -1.5 games - YES	37%	0.34/0.40	—	≤36c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Shintaro Mochizuki wins 2-0 - NO	75%	0.75/0.78	—	≤74c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Shintaro Mochizuki wins 2-1 - YES	17%	0.18/0.20	—	≤16c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Taro Daniel wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.21/0.23	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Shintaro Mochizuki -1.5 games - NO	63%	0.60/0.66	—	≤61c	make ≤62c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Taro Daniel wins 2-0 - NO	62%	0.63/0.66	—	≤60c	make ≤61c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Shintaro Mochizuki — set 2 - NO	51%	0.55/0.56	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Taro Daniel — set 2 - YES	51%	0.54/0.56	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Taro Daniel — set 1 - YES	51%	0.55/0.57	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Shintaro Mochizuki — set 1 - NO	51%	0.56/0.57	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	46%	0.54/0.55	—	≤44c	make ≤45c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	36%	0.10/0.47	—	≤34c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	86%	0.63/0.98	—	≤85c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Taro Daniel -5.5 games - YES	22%	0.02/0.42	—	≤21c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Taro Daniel -5.5 games - NO	78%	0.58/0.98	—	≤76c	make ≤77c
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	64%	0.53/0.90	—	≤62c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro Daniel	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	14%	0.02/0.37	—	≤13c	no order

Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Skatov 44% · Set-2 44% · straight sets 26% / 37% · expected games 23.1
Predicted score 0-2 37% · Exact sets — 2-0 26% · 2-1 17% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 37%
Total games — >17.5 84% · >22.5 52% · >27.5 34%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.53 · fair 55% · usable +0.4pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	52%	0.47/0.48	—	≤51c	take @48c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Stefanos Sakellaridis -5.5 games - YES	28%	0.21/0.23	—	≤27c	take @23c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Timofey Skatov — set 2 - YES	44%	0.37/0.40	—	≤43c	take @40c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Stefanos Sakellaridis — set 2 - NO	44%	0.39/0.41	—	≤43c	take @41c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Timofey Skatov — set 1 - YES	44%	0.38/0.41	—	≤42c	take @41c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Stefanos Sakellaridis — set 1 - NO	44%	0.39/0.41	—	≤42c	take @41c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Stefanos Sakellaridis wins 2-0 - YES	44%	0.40/0.42	—	≤42c	take @42c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Stefanos Sakellaridis -2.5 games - YES	55%	0.52/0.53	—	≤53c	take @53c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Stefanos Sakellaridis wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.76/0.79	—	≤79c	make ≤78c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Timofey Skatov wins 2-0 - YES	21%	0.19/0.20	—	≤20c	make ≤19c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Timofey Skatov -1.5 games - YES	32%	0.26/0.32	—	≤30c	make ≤31c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Timofey Skatov wins 2-1 - NO	85%	0.83/0.85	—	≤84c	make ≤84c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Timofey Skatov wins 2-0 - NO	79%	0.80/0.81	—	≤78c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Timofey Skatov wins 2-1 - YES	15%	0.15/0.17	—	≤15c	make ≤15c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Stefanos Sakellaridis -2.5 games - NO	45%	0.47/0.48	—	≤43c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Stefanos Sakellaridis wins 2-0 - NO	56%	0.58/0.60	—	≤54c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Stefanos Sakellaridis wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.21/0.24	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Stefanos Sakellaridis — set 1 - YES	56%	0.59/0.61	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	48%	0.52/0.53	—	≤46c	make ≤47c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Stefanos Sakellaridis — set 2 - YES	56%	0.59/0.61	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Timofey Skatov -1.5 games - NO	68%	0.68/0.74	—	≤67c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Timofey Skatov — set 1 - NO	56%	0.59/0.62	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Stefanos Sakellaridis -5.5 games - NO	72%	0.77/0.79	—	≤70c	make ≤71c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Timofey Skatov — set 2 - NO	55%	0.60/0.63	—	≤54c	make ≤55c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	34%	0.12/0.46	—	≤33c	make ≤34c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	84%	0.65/0.98	—	≤83c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	66%	0.54/0.88	—	≤64c	make ≤65c
ATP Shanghai	Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	16%	0.02/0.35	—	≤15c	no order

Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Noguchi 40% · Set-2 40% · straight sets 22% / 42% · expected games 23.4
Predicted score 0-2 42% · Exact sets — 2-0 22% · 2-1 16% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 42%
Total games — >17.5 86% · >22.5 54% · >27.5 36%
Chosen line — over 22.5 at 0.42 · fair 46% · usable +1.0pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	54%	0.41/0.42	—	≤52c	take @42c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Alexandre Muller wins 2-0 - YES	47%	0.43/0.44	—	≤45c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexandre Muller — set 1 - NO	40%	0.36/0.38	—	≤38c	make ≤37c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rio Noguchi — set 1 - YES	40%	0.35/0.38	—	≤38c	make ≤37c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rio Noguchi — set 2 - YES	40%	0.36/0.39	—	≤38c	make ≤38c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexandre Muller — set 2 - NO	40%	0.36/0.39	—	≤38c	make ≤38c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexandre Muller -3.5 games - NO	52%	0.50/0.51	—	≤50c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexandre Muller wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.78/0.80	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rio Noguchi wins 2-1 - NO	85%	0.84/0.86	—	≤84c	make ≤85c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rio Noguchi wins 2-0 - NO	82%	0.80/0.83	—	≤81c	make ≤81c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rio Noguchi wins 2-1 - YES	15%	0.14/0.16	—	≤14c	make ≤14c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexandre Muller -3.5 games - YES	48%	0.49/0.50	—	≤47c	make ≤48c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Rio Noguchi wins 2-0 - YES	18%	0.17/0.20	—	≤17c	make ≤18c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexandre Muller wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.20/0.22	—	≤19c	make ≤20c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Rio Noguchi -1.5 games - YES	28%	0.25/0.31	—	≤27c	make ≤28c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Rio Noguchi -1.5 games - NO	72%	0.69/0.75	—	≤70c	make ≤71c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexandre Muller — set 1 - YES	60%	0.62/0.64	—	≤59c	make ≤60c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Alexandre Muller wins 2-0 - NO	53%	0.56/0.57	—	≤52c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rio Noguchi — set 2 - NO	60%	0.61/0.64	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Alexandre Muller — set 2 - YES	60%	0.61/0.64	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Rio Noguchi — set 1 - NO	60%	0.62/0.65	—	≤59c	make ≤60c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	36%	0.08/0.42	—	≤34c	make ≤35c
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	46%	0.58/0.59	—	≤44c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	86%	0.61/0.99	—	≤85c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexandre Muller -6.5 games - NO	84%	0.61/0.99	—	≤83c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alexandre Muller -6.5 games - YES	16%	0.01/0.39	—	≤15c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	64%	0.58/0.92	—	≤63c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	14%	0.01/0.39	—	≤13c	no order

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Basilashvili 72% · Set-2 72% · straight sets 56% / 13% · expected games 22.6
Predicted score 2-0 56% · Exact sets — 2-0 56% · 2-1 20% · 1-2 12% · 0-2 13%
Total games — >17.5 82% · >22.5 48% · >27.5 31%
Chosen line — under 22.5 at 0.53 · fair 60% · usable +1.8pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Nikoloz Basilashvili — set 1 - YES	72%	0.62/0.64	—	≤71c	take @64c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Andre Ilagan — set 1 - NO	72%	0.62/0.65	—	≤71c	take @65c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Nikoloz Basilashvili — set 2 - YES	72%	0.62/0.65	—	≤70c	take @65c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Andre Ilagan — set 2 - NO	72%	0.63/0.66	—	≤70c	take @66c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2-0 - YES	48%	0.41/0.44	—	≤46c	take @44c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.74/0.78	—	≤79c	take @78c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Andre Ilagan wins 2-0 - YES	18%	0.14/0.17	—	≤17c	make ≤16c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Andre Ilagan wins 2-1 - NO	86%	0.83/0.86	—	≤85c	make ≤85c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Andre Ilagan -1.5 games - YES	27%	0.25/0.28	—	≤26c	make ≤27c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nikoloz Basilashvili -3.5 games - YES	49%	0.47/0.50	—	≤48c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	52%	0.50/0.53	—	≤50c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	48%	0.47/0.50	—	≤46c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nikoloz Basilashvili -3.5 games - NO	51%	0.50/0.53	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Andre Ilagan -1.5 games - NO	73%	0.72/0.75	—	≤71c	make ≤72c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Andre Ilagan wins 2-1 - YES	14%	0.14/0.17	—	≤13c	make ≤14c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Andre Ilagan wins 2-0 - NO	82%	0.83/0.86	—	≤81c	make ≤82c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.22/0.26	—	≤19c	make ≤20c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2-0 - NO	52%	0.56/0.59	—	≤50c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nikoloz Basilashvili -6.5 games - YES	24%	0.01/0.32	—	≤23c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Andre Ilagan — set 2 - YES	28%	0.34/0.37	—	≤27c	make ≤28c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Nikoloz Basilashvili — set 2 - NO	29%	0.35/0.38	—	≤27c	make ≤28c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Nikoloz Basilashvili — set 1 - NO	28%	0.36/0.38	—	≤26c	make ≤27c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Andre Ilagan — set 1 - YES	28%	0.35/0.38	—	≤26c	make ≤27c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	69%	0.47/0.81	—	≤67c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	82%	0.67/0.98	—	≤80c	make ≤81c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	31%	0.19/0.53	—	≤30c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Nikoloz Basilashvili -6.5 games - NO	76%	0.68/0.99	—	≤74c	make ≤75c
ATP Shanghai	Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre Ilagan	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	19%	0.02/0.33	—	≤17c	no order

Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Gaston 56% · Set-2 56% · straight sets 38% / 25% · expected games 23.1
Predicted score 2-0 38% · Exact sets — 2-0 38% · 2-1 20% · 1-2 17% · 0-2 25%
Total games — >17.5 85% · >22.5 53% · >27.5 35%
Chosen line — over 22.5 at 0.45 · fair 45% · usable -0.4pp · not actionable

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	53%	0.44/0.45	—	≤51c	take @45c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Hugo Gaston wins 2-0 - YES	38%	0.35/0.37	—	≤37c	make ≤36c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Hugo Gaston wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.77/0.80	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Hugo Gaston -4.5 games - NO	68%	0.66/0.68	—	≤67c	make ≤67c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Liam Draxl wins 2-0 - YES	25%	0.22/0.25	—	≤24c	make ≤24c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Liam Draxl -1.5 games - YES	38%	0.36/0.38	—	≤36c	make ≤37c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Hugo Gaston — set 1 - YES	56%	0.54/0.57	—	≤55c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Liam Draxl — set 1 - NO	56%	0.55/0.57	—	≤55c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Hugo Gaston — set 2 - YES	56%	0.54/0.57	—	≤54c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Hugo Gaston -1.5 games - YES	53%	0.52/0.54	—	≤51c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Liam Draxl wins 2-1 - YES	17%	0.16/0.18	—	≤16c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Liam Draxl wins 2-1 - NO	83%	0.82/0.84	—	≤82c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Hugo Gaston -1.5 games - NO	47%	0.46/0.48	—	≤45c	make ≤46c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Liam Draxl — set 2 - YES	44%	0.42/0.45	—	≤42c	make ≤43c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Liam Draxl — set 1 - YES	44%	0.43/0.45	—	≤42c	make ≤43c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Liam Draxl -1.5 games - NO	62%	0.62/0.64	—	≤61c	make ≤62c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Liam Draxl — set 2 - NO	56%	0.55/0.58	—	≤54c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Hugo Gaston -4.5 games - YES	32%	0.32/0.34	—	≤30c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Hugo Gaston — set 2 - NO	44%	0.43/0.46	—	≤42c	make ≤43c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Hugo Gaston — set 1 - NO	44%	0.43/0.46	—	≤42c	make ≤43c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Liam Draxl wins 2-0 - NO	75%	0.75/0.78	—	≤74c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Hugo Gaston wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.20/0.23	—	≤19c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Hugo Gaston wins 2-0 - NO	62%	0.63/0.65	—	≤60c	make ≤61c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	47%	0.55/0.56	—	≤46c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	35%	0.09/0.47	—	≤33c	make ≤34c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	85%	0.62/0.98	—	≤84c	make ≤84c
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	65%	0.53/0.91	—	≤64c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	15%	0.02/0.38	—	≤15c	no order

Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego starts Oct 5, 3:00 AM

Set-1 Dougaz 26% · Set-2 27% · straight sets 12% / 58% · expected games 22.2
Predicted score 0-2 58% · Exact sets — 2-0 12% · 2-1 11% · 1-2 19% · 0-2 58%
Total games — >16.5 87% · >21.5 52% · >26.5 32%
Chosen line — under 21.5 at 0.50 · fair 55% · usable +1.3pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Lorenzo Sonego -4.5 games - YES	53%	0.39/0.40	—	≤51c	take @40c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Lorenzo Sonego wins 2-0 - YES	62%	0.54/0.55	—	≤60c	take @55c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Lorenzo Sonego wins 2-1 - NO	81%	0.75/0.78	—	≤80c	take @78c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Lorenzo Sonego -1.5 games - YES	76%	0.73/0.74	—	≤75c	take @74c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 21.5 games - YES	52%	0.50/0.51	—	≤51c	make ≤50c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Lorenzo Sonego — set 1 - NO	26%	0.24/0.25	—	≤25c	make ≤24c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Aziz Dougaz — set 1 - YES	26%	0.24/0.25	—	≤25c	make ≤24c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Aziz Dougaz wins 2-0 - YES	10%	0.08/0.11	—	≤9c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Aziz Dougaz wins 2-1 - NO	90%	0.88/0.91	—	≤89c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Lorenzo Sonego — set 2 - YES	73%	0.72/0.74	—	≤72c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Lorenzo Sonego — set 2 - NO	27%	0.26/0.28	—	≤26c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Aziz Dougaz — set 2 - YES	27%	0.24/0.28	—	≤26c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Aziz Dougaz wins 2-1 - YES	10%	0.09/0.12	—	≤9c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Aziz Dougaz wins 2-0 - NO	90%	0.89/0.92	—	≤89c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Lorenzo Sonego — set 1 - YES	74%	0.75/0.76	—	≤72c	make ≤73c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Aziz Dougaz — set 1 - NO	74%	0.75/0.76	—	≤72c	make ≤73c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Set winner — Aziz Dougaz — set 2 - NO	73%	0.72/0.76	—	≤72c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lorenzo Sonego -1.5 games - NO	24%	0.26/0.27	—	≤22c	make ≤23c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Lorenzo Sonego wins 2-1 - YES	19%	0.22/0.25	—	≤18c	make ≤18c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Exact match score — Lorenzo Sonego wins 2-0 - NO	38%	0.45/0.46	—	≤37c	make ≤38c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lorenzo Sonego -7.5 games - YES	18%	0.01/0.29	—	≤17c	make ≤17c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - YES	87%	0.70/0.99	—	≤86c	make ≤86c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lorenzo Sonego -4.5 games - NO	47%	0.60/0.61	—	≤45c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - YES	32%	0.12/0.46	—	≤31c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Spread (games) — Lorenzo Sonego -7.5 games - NO	82%	0.71/0.99	—	≤81c	make ≤82c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 26.5 games - NO	68%	0.54/0.88	—	≤66c	make ≤67c
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 21.5 games - NO	48%	0.49/0.50	—	≤46c	no order
ATP Shanghai	Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo Sonego	Oct 5, 3:00 AM	Total games — Over 16.5 games - NO	13%	0.01/0.30	—	≤13c	no order

Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz starts Oct 5, 6:00 AM

Set-1 Minaur 57% · Set-2 57% · straight sets 39% / 24% · expected games 23.5
Predicted score 2-0 39% · Exact sets — 2-0 39% · 2-1 20% · 1-2 17% · 0-2 24%
Total games — >17.5 86% · >22.5 54% · >27.5 36%
Chosen line — under 17.5 at 0.11 · fair 19% · usable +2.4pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Alex de Minaur -2.5 games - YES	45%	0.40/0.41	—	≤43c	take @41c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 1 - NO	57%	0.53/0.55	—	≤56c	take @55c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Alex de Minaur wins 2-0 - YES	36%	0.32/0.33	—	≤34c	take @33c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alex de Minaur — set 1 - YES	57%	0.53/0.55	—	≤56c	take @55c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 2 - NO	57%	0.53/0.55	—	≤55c	take @55c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Alex de Minaur — set 2 - YES	57%	0.54/0.55	—	≤55c	take @55c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-1 - NO	82%	0.79/0.81	—	≤81c	take @81c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-0 - YES	27%	0.24/0.26	—	≤26c	make ≤25c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	36%	0.32/0.35	—	≤34c	make ≤34c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Exact match score — Alex de Minaur wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.77/0.80	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	46%	0.44/0.46	—	≤44c	make ≤45c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	54%	0.54/0.56	—	≤53c	no order
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Spread (games) — Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 games - YES	40%	0.35/0.42	—	≤38c	no order
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Set winner — Alex de Minaur — set 2 - NO	43%	0.45/0.46	—	≤41c	make ≤42c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-1 - YES	18%	0.19/0.21	—	≤17c	no order
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Exact match score — Hubert Hurkacz wins 2-0 - NO	73%	0.74/0.76	—	≤71c	make ≤72c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Exact match score — Alex de Minaur wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.20/0.23	—	≤19c	make ≤19c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Exact match score — Alex de Minaur wins 2-0 - NO	64%	0.67/0.68	—	≤63c	make ≤64c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	64%	0.65/0.68	—	≤62c	no order
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 2 - YES	43%	0.45/0.47	—	≤41c	make ≤42c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Set winner — Alex de Minaur — set 1 - NO	43%	0.45/0.47	—	≤41c	make ≤42c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Set winner — Hubert Hurkacz — set 1 - YES	42%	0.45/0.47	—	≤41c	make ≤42c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alex de Minaur -2.5 games - NO	55%	0.59/0.60	—	≤54c	no order
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Spread (games) — Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 games - NO	60%	0.58/0.65	—	≤58c	no order
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	86%	0.89/0.92	—	≤85c	no order
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alex de Minaur -5.5 games - YES	20%	0.02/0.30	—	≤18c	make ≤19c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Spread (games) — Alex de Minaur -5.5 games - NO	80%	0.70/0.98	—	≤79c	make ≤80c
ATP Beijing	Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz	Oct 5, 6:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	14%	0.08/0.11	—	≤13c	no order

Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka starts Oct 5, 8:00 AM

Set-1 Vacherot 45% · Set-2 46% · straight sets 27% / 36% · expected games 23.9
Predicted score 0-2 36% · Exact sets — 2-0 27% · 2-1 18% · 1-2 20% · 0-2 36%
Total games — >17.5 88% · >22.5 57% · >27.5 38%
Chosen line — under 17.5 at 0.11 · fair 16% · usable +1.6pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 27.5 games - YES	38%	0.33/0.35	—	≤36c	take @35c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 22.5 games - YES	57%	0.53/0.54	—	≤55c	take @54c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Valentin Vacherot — set 2 - YES	46%	0.37/0.40	—	≤44c	take @40c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Valentin Vacherot — set 1 - YES	45%	0.38/0.40	—	≤44c	take @40c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Jiri Lehecka — set 1 - NO	45%	0.40/0.41	—	≤44c	take @41c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Jiri Lehecka wins 2-0 - YES	45%	0.39/0.41	—	≤43c	take @41c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Jiri Lehecka — set 2 - NO	45%	0.37/0.42	—	≤44c	take @42c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Jiri Lehecka -2.5 games - YES	54%	0.50/0.51	—	≤52c	take @51c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Jiri Lehecka wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.74/0.78	—	≤78c	take @78c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Exact match score — Valentin Vacherot wins 2-1 - NO	85%	0.82/0.85	—	≤84c	make ≤84c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Exact match score — Valentin Vacherot wins 2-0 - YES	20%	0.17/0.20	—	≤19c	make ≤19c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Spread (games) — Valentin Vacherot -1.5 games - YES	30%	0.28/0.31	—	≤29c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Spread (games) — Valentin Vacherot -1.5 games - NO	70%	0.69/0.72	—	≤68c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Exact match score — Valentin Vacherot wins 2-0 - NO	80%	0.80/0.83	—	≤79c	make ≤80c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Exact match score — Valentin Vacherot wins 2-1 - YES	15%	0.15/0.18	—	≤14c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Total games — Over 22.5 games - NO	43%	0.46/0.47	—	≤41c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Spread (games) — Jiri Lehecka -2.5 games - NO	46%	0.49/0.50	—	≤44c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - YES	88%	0.89/0.93	—	≤87c	make ≤88c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Total games — Over 27.5 games - NO	62%	0.65/0.67	—	≤60c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Set winner — Jiri Lehecka — set 1 - YES	55%	0.59/0.60	—	≤53c	make ≤54c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Exact match score — Jiri Lehecka wins 2-0 - NO	55%	0.59/0.61	—	≤54c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Exact match score — Jiri Lehecka wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.22/0.26	—	≤19c	make ≤20c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Set winner — Valentin Vacherot — set 1 - NO	55%	0.60/0.62	—	≤53c	make ≤54c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Spread (games) — Jiri Lehecka -5.5 games - YES	24%	0.04/0.32	—	≤23c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Set winner — Jiri Lehecka — set 2 - YES	55%	0.58/0.63	—	≤53c	make ≤54c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Set winner — Valentin Vacherot — set 2 - NO	54%	0.60/0.63	—	≤53c	make ≤54c
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Spread (games) — Jiri Lehecka -5.5 games - NO	76%	0.68/0.96	—	≤75c	no order
ATP Tokyo	Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Lehecka	Oct 5, 8:00 AM	Total games — Over 17.5 games - NO	12%	0.07/0.11	—	≤11c	no order

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev starts Oct 5, 10:00 AM

Set-1 Djokovic 53% · Set-2 53% · straight sets 34% / 28% · expected games 23.5
Predicted score 2-0 34% · Exact sets — 2-0 34% · 2-1 19% · 1-2 18% · 0-2 29%
Total games — >18.5 80% · >23.5 49% · >28.5 32%
Chosen line — under 18.5 at 0.22 · fair 26% · usable +1.1pp

Tournament	Match	Start (ET)	IPS Pick	Pick Win %	Kalshi bid/ask	Poly bid/ask	Ceiling	Type
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 23.5 games - YES	49%	0.45/0.46	—	≤47c	take @46c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Daniil Medvedev — set 1 - NO	53%	0.45/0.46	—	≤51c	take @46c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Novak Djokovic — set 1 - YES	53%	0.44/0.46	—	≤51c	take @46c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Novak Djokovic — set 2 - YES	53%	0.44/0.46	—	≤51c	take @46c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Set winner — Daniil Medvedev — set 2 - NO	53%	0.45/0.47	—	≤51c	take @47c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Exact match score — Daniil Medvedev wins 2-0 - YES	36%	0.31/0.32	—	≤35c	take @32c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Total games — Over 28.5 games - YES	32%	0.23/0.30	—	≤31c	take @30c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Our Pick Spread (games) — Daniil Medvedev -2.5 games - YES	46%	0.43/0.44	—	≤44c	take @44c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Exact match score — Novak Djokovic wins 2-1 - NO	82%	0.80/0.82	—	≤81c	make ≤81c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Exact match score — Novak Djokovic wins 2-0 - YES	26%	0.23/0.26	—	≤25c	make ≤25c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Exact match score — Daniil Medvedev wins 2-1 - NO	80%	0.76/0.80	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Spread (games) — Novak Djokovic -1.5 games - YES	39%	0.35/0.40	—	≤37c	no order
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Exact match score — Novak Djokovic wins 2-1 - YES	18%	0.18/0.20	—	≤17c	make ≤17c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Spread (games) — Daniil Medvedev -2.5 games - NO	54%	0.56/0.57	—	≤52c	no order
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Exact match score — Novak Djokovic wins 2-0 - NO	74%	0.74/0.77	—	≤72c	make ≤73c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Total games — Over 23.5 games - NO	51%	0.54/0.55	—	≤49c	make ≤50c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Spread (games) — Novak Djokovic -1.5 games - NO	61%	0.60/0.65	—	≤59c	make ≤60c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Total games — Over 18.5 games - YES	80%	0.78/0.84	—	≤79c	make ≤79c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Exact match score — Daniil Medvedev wins 2-1 - YES	20%	0.20/0.24	—	≤19c	make ≤19c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Exact match score — Daniil Medvedev wins 2-0 - NO	64%	0.68/0.69	—	≤62c	make ≤63c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Set winner — Daniil Medvedev — set 2 - YES	47%	0.53/0.55	—	≤46c	no order
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Set winner — Daniil Medvedev — set 1 - YES	47%	0.54/0.55	—	≤45c	no order
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Set winner — Novak Djokovic — set 2 - NO	47%	0.54/0.56	—	≤46c	no order
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Set winner — Novak Djokovic — set 1 - NO	47%	0.54/0.56	—	≤45c	no order
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Total games — Over 28.5 games - NO	68%	0.70/0.77	—	≤66c	make ≤67c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Spread (games) — Daniil Medvedev -5.5 games - YES	20%	0.04/0.33	—	≤19c	make ≤20c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Spread (games) — Daniil Medvedev -5.5 games - NO	80%	0.67/0.96	—	≤78c	make ≤79c
ATP Beijing	Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev	Oct 5, 10:00 AM	Total games — Over 18.5 games - NO	20%	0.16/0.22	—	≤19c	no order

Measured performance by slice — withheld. Per-cell realised ROI, the fitted β for every horizon and derivative family, break-even thresholds and order-timing rules are kept in the project repository rather than published here. These markets are two-sided: a full account of which cells we price as soft is also a guide to trading against us.

What is not withheld is the part that matters for reading this page honestly: derivative totals and spreads are DISPLAYED and NOT TRADED; they were tested for promotion on 2026-07-31 and did not pass, because a well-measured slope did not survive the cost of crossing a wide book. Books tighter than 3c are permanently no-bet. Best-of-5 engine parameters remain unverified. Everything here is paper and analytical only — not financial advice.

Best-of-5 caution. The engine's set/games parameters were fitted and verified on best-of-3 only (1,500 forward matches, 8/8 structural checks). They are currently applied to best-of-5 as well, unverified. Treat any Grand Slam or best-of-5 total, spread or exact-score number here as provisional until that verification lands (queue 120).

Fair values are computed in closed form from the same engine that prices the match board — set-1 winner, exact set score, and expected games per match. Strategy column: BUY at ask only when the fair value clears the ask plus fees with margin (rare on tight books, by design); rest bid = a maker limit order below fair value on soft, wide-spread books (exact-score books are typically 5-8¢ wide — crossing the spread there gives the edge away). Both sides of every book are listed. Kalshi lists only one leg — totals appear as “Over X.5”, spreads as the favourite at −X.5 — because each is a single binary contract: NO is the under, and NO is the underdog’s +X.5, priced at 1−fair and quoted at (1−ask)/(1−bid). We show the NO leg explicitly so the whole market is visible; the edge can sit on either side.

Total games and Spread (games) are DISPLAYED but not yet traded. The games distribution previously ran ~1.7 games long with a mis-shaped set distribution; that was traced to a specific mechanism and fixed on 2026-07-29 (per-match performance noise was destroying tiebreaks, because P(reaching 6−6) is concave in the hold gap). Against 1,500 forward best-of-3 matches the engine now matches the archive on every structural check: total games within 0.02 (23.81 vs 23.79), set-1 tiebreak rate 0.217 vs 0.203, and the set-score distribution within noise.

Tested for promotion 2026-07-31, and it did not pass. On 1,424 settled wide-book total-games legs, β — the fraction of an observed edge that proves real — is +0.97 [+0.86, +1.07], our best-measured cell; wide-book game spread is +0.54 [+0.37, +0.72] on 1,311 legs. Both are fold-stable: β is positive in every month tested. That was enough to ask the promotion question properly, so we ran it as a cross-fit backtest — β fitted on the other months, applied to score the held-out one, bought at the actual T−6h touch, taker fee paid, settled 0/1, bootstrapped by match.

The realised answer is +2.75% [−8.93%, +13.90%] over 129 matches, and it is negative in the most recent fold (−15.9%). So the slope is real and the money is not demonstrable. Those are different claims, and the gap between them is the spread: a high β lives on wide books, and wide books are exactly where crossing costs most — the rule fires on only 166 of 15,123 tradeable sides, and on those the half-spread eats most of what β delivers. Resting a maker order would be cheaper, and it is the one route we cannot validate: no wide-book maker fill has ever been observed, by construction.

Verdict: not promoted. These stay displayed, capped at watch, and the honest summary is that we have a well-measured edge with no demonstrated way to collect it. Books tighter than 3c remain permanently no-bet. Best-of-5 remains unverified (see the caution above). Paper/analytical only — not financial advice.

Tennis board Contact

Regulatory Disclosures, Safe-Harbor & Terms of Use

1. Analytical & Research Use Only: iPredictSport is a quantitative research platform publishing statistical estimates for educational, informational, and analytical purposes only. iPredictSport is not an investment adviser, commodity trading advisor (CTA), registered broker-dealer, or sports wagering operator. Nothing contained on this site, in our API, or in our newsletters constitutes financial advice, investment recommendations, or sports betting advice.

2. Hypothetical & Simulated Performance (CFTC Rule 4.41): Performance figures for our autonomous paper agent and proposed bet track records are simulated, hypothetical, and based on paper audits. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading, may not reflect market liquidity, exchange slippage, or trading bans, and cannot account for psychological risk factors. No representation is made that any user will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

3. Market Risk & Capital Loss: Trading binary contracts on prediction markets (such as Kalshi or Polymarket) or placing sports wagers involves substantial financial risk, including the possible loss of 100% of staked capital. Odds and spreads fluctuate continuously. Users assume sole responsibility for their own trading decisions and bankroll sizing.

4. Responsible Gaming & Age Requirements: Fliff sweepstakes is available to legal residents aged 18+ in eligible states. Financial prediction exchanges (including Kalshi) require 18+, and commercial sportsbooks require 21+, subject to jurisdiction. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, confidential crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed 24/7 by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or visiting ncpgambling.org.

5. Affiliate & Compensation Disclosure: iPredictSport may receive affiliate commissions, referral fees, or cost-per-acquisition (CPA) compensation from links to partners (including Fliff, Kalshi, and Polymarket) at no additional cost to you. For Fliff, attribution requires entry of promo code IPREDICT or IPSLIVE in the mobile app. Fliff is a sweepstakes sports product for adults 18+ and is void where prohibited by law (18 excluded states). This commercial compensation does not alter our objective quantitative probabilities, model outputs, or editorial gates.

Full text: Terms of Use · Disclaimer · Affiliate & Advertising Disclosure · Privacy Policy