Updated Oct 4, 2026 9:48 PM ET.
About
I_PREDICT_SPORT publishes daily match probabilities across ATP, ATP Challenger and WTA from a purpose-built prediction engine: chronological Elo-family ratings (surface-specific, margin-of-victory aware, uncertainty-scaled), an exact point-by-point serve/return match model, and gradient-boosted ensembles — trained on tour-level results and enriched with Challenger and lower-tour data that most public models never see. The women's board runs a separate model built the same way on 40,935 WTA matches.
On strictly time-ordered validation the men's model holds roughly 66% winner accuracy with a Brier score near 0.213. The women's model was measured against a bookmaker on 4,077 out-of-sample 2026 matches and is at parity overall (0.1963 against 0.1965) and ahead on grass (0.1977 against 0.2053); it is not ahead on hard courts, where the market is sharpest.
Every published probability is logged with the price at the time and audited against the settled outcome. What that audit says today is worth stating plainly: on an unselected population we do not beat a tradeable price. The board is a research instrument and a public track record, not a tipping service — it is paper throughout, and the honest negative results are published alongside the positive ones.
Why Our Algorithms Beat Prediction Markets
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are highly efficient near match start, but suffer from significant pricing inertia 6 to 18 hours out. Public consensus odds rely heavily on static player rankings that lag behind court-speed dynamics, serve-plus-one efficiency, and fatigue clusters.
The iPredictSport Edge: Rather than betting on every match, our dual-stage architecture models point-level Markov probabilities and then subjects potential discrepancies to a strict edge-reliability gate. On an unselected population, the market is tough to beat; our edge comes from knowing when not to trade. Filtered proposed bets that pass every gate have achieved a +9.0% total ROI (18 of 28 won, +18.9% average bet ROI) under fee-aware quarter-Kelly sizing.
The person behind it
Alex Houck — Founder & CEO
An AI and prediction veteran with over 15 years of experience across development, marketing and prediction. BS in Engineering from the University of Minnesota Duluth.
Alex is a machine learning and AI engineer who builds prediction systems where being wrong has a price: sports outcome modeling, medical-device AI, surgical robotics, clinical outcome prediction, financial markets, and applied data science. His work spans the full arc from raw data pipelines to validated, deployed models with live accountability for their accuracy.
Alex has consulted for Fortune 500 companies and early-stage startups alike, and is open to consulting engagements — particularly where rigorous prediction, calibration, and honest evaluation matter more than hype.
We're hiring a Senior Developer and a VP of Marketing. See the roles → Or partner with us, or read our investor overview.
Regulatory Disclosures, Safe-Harbor & Terms of Use
1. Analytical & Research Use Only: iPredictSport is a quantitative research platform publishing statistical estimates for educational, informational, and analytical purposes only. iPredictSport is not an investment adviser, commodity trading advisor (CTA), registered broker-dealer, or sports wagering operator. Nothing contained on this site, in our API, or in our newsletters constitutes financial advice, investment recommendations, or sports betting advice.
2. Hypothetical & Simulated Performance (CFTC Rule 4.41): Performance figures for our autonomous paper agent and proposed bet track records are simulated, hypothetical, and based on paper audits. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading, may not reflect market liquidity, exchange slippage, or trading bans, and cannot account for psychological risk factors. No representation is made that any user will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
3. Market Risk & Capital Loss: Trading binary contracts on prediction markets (such as Kalshi or Polymarket) or placing sports wagers involves substantial financial risk, including the possible loss of 100% of staked capital. Odds and spreads fluctuate continuously. Users assume sole responsibility for their own trading decisions and bankroll sizing.
4. Responsible Gaming & Age Requirements: Fliff sweepstakes is available to legal residents aged 18+ in eligible states. Financial prediction exchanges (including Kalshi) require 18+, and commercial sportsbooks require 21+, subject to jurisdiction. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, confidential crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed 24/7 by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or visiting ncpgambling.org.
5. Affiliate & Compensation Disclosure: iPredictSport may receive affiliate commissions, referral fees, or cost-per-acquisition (CPA) compensation from links to partners (including Fliff, Kalshi, and Polymarket) at no additional cost to you. For Fliff, attribution requires entry of promo code IPREDICT or IPSLIVE in the mobile app. Fliff is a sweepstakes sports product for adults 18+ and is void where prohibited by law (18 excluded states). This commercial compensation does not alter our objective quantitative probabilities, model outputs, or editorial gates.
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