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Machine-learning win probabilities for every ATP and WTA match, set next to the live Kalshi and Polymarket books, graded in public against the price.
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Match board

TournamentMatchStart (ET)IPS PickPick Win %Kalshi bid/askPoly bid/askCeilingType
ATP
Rolex Shanghai Masters
Federico Cina vs Xiao LinangOct 5, 12:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
—not priced (cold start)———
ATP
Tokyo
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume MunarOct 5, 1:00 AMJaume Munar
Bet on Fliff
11%0.12/0.13—≤10cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystJapan Open final in Tokyo. Top seed Carlos Alcaraz meets Jaume Munar a day after both won semifinals on Oct 4. No injury news found in Oct 4 searches for either man, so both look ready. Alcaraz has won three times this week but needed first-set tiebreaks each time and showed wobble on his retooled serve (tennisworldusa.org, Oct 3). Munar is the form story after upsetting Taylor Fritz in three (newsday.com, Oct 1) then two quick wins. His long rallies can test Alcaraz's second serve and force errors casual fans miss. Still, Alcaraz is far stronger overall. This is a lopsided ATP match, the spot where this approach has trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Rolex Shanghai Masters
Te Rigele vs Adam WaltonOct 5, 1:30 AM
Bet on Fliff
—not priced (cold start)———
WTA
Beijing
Iva Jovic vs Kamilla RakhimovaOct 5, 2:00 AMIva Jovic
Bet on Fliff
80%0.79/0.800.79/0.80≤78cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThird round of the China Open in Beijing on outdoor hard courts, best-of-three sets. Tenth seed Iva Jovic needed 2 hours 45 minutes to rally past Harriet Dart 2-6 6-3 6-3 (tennistonic.com, Oct 4 2026), showing tough comeback form after winning Guadalajara (sports.yahoo.com, Oct 4 2026). Kamilla Rakhimova, world No. 76, upset Leylah Fernandez 6-2 4-6 6-3 for her second Top-30 win (wtatennis.com, Oct 3 2026) but carries 50 games in seven days versus 26 for Jovic. Searches found no current injury for either player. Jovic's cleaner striking should thrive against heavier legs in longer rallies. This is a lopsided WTA book where this model has tied the market overall but lost ground on lopsided prices, so keep trust modest. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA
Beijing
Our Pick Coco Gauff vs Xinran SunOct 5, 2:00 AMXinran Sun
Bet on Fliff
9%0.06/0.070.06/0.07≤9cmake ≤6c · fill 71%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystRound of 32 at the Beijing WTA 1000, outdoor hard courts in China, best-of-three sets. Third seed Coco Gauff faces 16-year-old home wildcard Xinran Sun, the junior world No.1 in her first WTA event. Gauff ground past Camila Osorio 7-6 4-6 6-2 on Oct 3 (espn.com Oct 4) and needed medicine for her back (straitstimes.com Oct 4), but won the third 6-2 with no pull-out talk. Sun beat Cristina Bucsa 6-4 7-5 Oct 3 for a first Top 50 win (wtatennis.com Oct 4) after Eva Lys retired with a foot injury Oct 1 (tenniswatcher.com Oct 1). Gauff's big-match return game should feast on second serves, Sun has never faced top-5 pace, and short rest favors veteran legs. This is a lopsided WTA book where our read has tied the market on tour but lost ground on shape, so treat this as modest trust. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA
Beijing
Our Pick Ann Li vs Belinda BencicOct 5, 2:00 AMAnn Li
Bet on Fliff
32%0.29/0.300.30/0.31≤30ctake @30c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a Round 3 WTA 1000 match in Beijing on outdoor hard courts, best of three sets. Belinda Bencic, the 9th seed, beat Anastasia Zakharova 6-1 7-6(3) on Oct 3 after trailing 4-2 in the second (wtatennis.com, Oct 4). Ann Li beat Ashlyn Krueger 6-4 6-2 the same day (Associated Press via wfmz.com, Oct 3). Searches found no current injury for either player. Bencic's first-strike return should pressure Li's second serve, and her experience in big WTA 1000 moments is the edge casual fans miss. Both arrive fresh with one straight-set win this week. This is a WTA match on a lopsided book, where this model has tied the price on tour but lost ground on lopsided prices, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA
Beijing
Marie Bouzkova vs Qinwen ZhengOct 5, 2:00 AMQinwen Zheng
Bet on Fliff
57%0.57/0.580.57/0.58≤56cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a third-round WTA 1000 match in Beijing on outdoor hard courts, best-of-three sets, with home hope Qinwen Zheng facing Marie Bouzkova. Zheng is coming back from right elbow surgery last summer (Yahoo Sports, Sept 30 2026) and has battled through two long matches, including a retirement win over Anna Kalinskaya (wtatennis.com, Oct 3 2026). Bouzkova is fresher after a crisp 6-4 6-4 over Kimberly Birrell in 84 minutes (wtatennis.com, Oct 3 2026). Zheng's bigger first strike and home crowd lift should trouble Bouzkova's steady defense, while Bouzkova's fresher legs after Zheng's 57 games in seven days is the worry. No new injury news was found for either player. This is a close-priced WTA match where our read has historically tied the market, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA
Beijing
Alina Charaeva vs Sonay KartalOct 5, 2:00 AMSonay Kartal
Bet on Fliff
65%0.63/0.640.63/0.64≤63cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThird round of the China Open in Beijing, outdoor hard court, best-of-three sets where first to two sets wins. Sonay Kartal meets world No. 118 Alina Charaeva, who stunned new No. 1 Elena Rybakina 3-6 6-4 6-3 on Saturday night (wtatennis.com, Oct 4). Kartal returned from a six-month lower-back layoff suffered at Indian Wells in March (aol.com, Oct 1) with two easy wins, including 6-3 6-2 over Wang Xinyu in 79 minutes (wtatennis.com, Oct 4). Charaeva's heavy legs after a 3:12 marathon plus a 2:11 late-night upset matter most, with 60 games in seven days to Kartal's 34 in our data. Kartal's fresh, first-strike hitting should thrive as rallies get longer against a tired opponent. No new injury news was found in searches. This is a WTA match on a mildly lopsided board, where our past reads have run about even with the market, so treat this as a modest-trust read. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Ilia Simakin vs Luka PavlovicOct 5, 3:00 AMLuka Pavlovic
Bet on Fliff
37%0.32/0.33—≤35ctake @33c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a Shanghai hard-court match starting early Oct 5, likely best-of-three sets in qualifying or round one. Luka Pavlovic just lost badly 6-2 6-3 on Oct 1 in Jingshan after a 1-2 run, while Ilia Simakin won five in a row to take the Phan Thiet title on Sept 20 in our data. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either man. Pavlovic's angle is his stronger long-run rating and fresher match rhythm against Simakin's 15-day layoff and travel from Vietnam to China. But Simakin's title form and the market making him a clear favorite matter more. This is a lopsided ATP book where our read has trailed the price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Elias Ymer vs Mattia BellucciOct 5, 3:00 AMElias Ymer
Bet on Fliff
19%0.14/0.16—≤18cmake ≤15c · fill 72%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a Shanghai ATP stop on Oct 5, listed as best-of-three on an unconfirmed surface, likely an early-round match after the Jingshan Challenger week. No injury or withdrawal news was found for either man in searches on Oct 4. Elias Ymer comes in fresher after losing to Cina on Oct 2 in Jingshan, with a retirement win over Atmane on Sep 30 in our data. Mattia Bellucci just lost a 29-game final to Harris on Oct 4 after beating Erel and a walkover from Tomic. Bellucci's overnight Jingshan-to-Shanghai turnaround after six matches in seven days and Ymer's three clear days to prepare are the angles others miss and give the underdog his path through longer rallies. This is a lopsided ATP book where this model has trailed the price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kimmer CoppejansOct 5, 3:00 AMKimmer Coppejans
Bet on Fliff
17%0.13/0.14—≤16ctake @14c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a Shanghai ATP opener in China, outdoors on hard courts, best-of-three sets. Nishesh Basavareddy comes in hot after five wins at the San Diego Challenger in late September, while Kimmer Coppejans was just beaten 1-6 1-6 by Luka Mikrut in Genoa on Sept 23. Searches on Oct 4 found no new injury news for either man. Basavareddy's recent run gives him the sharper baseline game right now, and Coppejans' heavy defeat is hard to ignore. The angle for Coppejans is experience over 72 archived matches and a steadier serve if rallies stay short. This is a lopsided ATP book where the market has beaten this model, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Federico Agustin Gomez vs Michael ZhengOct 5, 3:00 AMFederico Agustin Gomez
Bet on Fliff
15%0.14/0.15—≤14cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai Masters in Shanghai, outdoor hard court, best-of-three sets in the early October Asian swing. Michael Zheng comes in match-tough from Hangzhou and Jingshan in China, while Federico Gomez last played in San Diego ten days ago and faces long travel. Targeted searches on Oct 4 found no injury news for either man, so both look available. Zheng's Asian acclimation and Gomez's U.S.-to-China travel matter most, plus Zheng's heavy favourite price shows the market trusts his hard-court level. Gomez can thrive if he serves big and shortens points early. This is a lopsided ATP book where our past reads have trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Rei Sakamoto vs Seongchan HongOct 5, 3:00 AMSeongchan Hong
Bet on Fliff
28%0.22/0.23—≤26ctake @23c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is Shanghai Masters qualifying, first round, on outdoor hard courts in Shanghai. Best-of-three sets, so a fast start matters a lot. Rei Sakamoto, 20, is World No.137 (atptour.com, Sept 30) and just pushed Arnaldi to three sets in Tokyo on Sept 30. Seongchan Hong, career-high No.139 in 2024 (wikipedia, Sept 28), recently returned from 18-month military service (economictimes.com, Sept 17) and lost 6-4 6-0 to Nagal on Sept 30. Searches found no current injury news for either man. Hong's long layoff and zero recent tour-level wins hurt him, while Sakamoto's youth and hard-court form should win most long rallies. Hong's only path is early first-strike tennis before rust shows. This is a lopsided ATP book where our past reads have trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Alex Bolt vs Lloyd HarrisOct 5, 3:00 AMAlex Bolt
Bet on Fliff
17%0.17/0.18—≤17cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a hard-court match at Shanghai, scheduled for Oct 5, best-of-three sets where first to two sets wins. Lloyd Harris arrives after winning in Jingshan on Oct 4 (our archive), including a semifinal win over Alex Bolt two days earlier that ended 0-0 in the third with a retirement flag. Bolt therefore faces an immediate rematch against the man who just beat him after a possible injury ending two days ago. Harris also carries heavy legs after five matches and a 29-game final the day before, which is Bolt's one opening if long rallies build. Web searches on Oct 4 found no injury news. This is an ATP match on a lopsided book where this model has trailed the price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Dalibor Svrcina vs Billy HarrisOct 5, 3:00 AMBilly Harris
Bet on Fliff
30%0.28/0.29—≤29ctake @29c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystEarly Shanghai hard-court meeting in China, outdoors on quick hard, best-of-three sets. Billy Harris arrives after a 7-6 in the third loss to Balshaw on Sep 29 and two losses in three (our archive). Dalibor Svrcina lost in three to Sharipov on Sep 30 after a win over Noguchi (our archive). Targeted searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either man. Harris can thrive if his extra day of rest after a 35-game battle lets him serve first and turn tight tiebreak losses into tight wins, while no doubles or qualifying load is visible. This is a lopsided ATP book where this approach has trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Tianhui Zhang vs Kyrian JacquetOct 5, 3:00 AMTianhui Zhang
Bet on Fliff
12%0.05/0.06—≤11ctake @6c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a Shanghai Masters early-round match in Shanghai, outdoor hard, best-of-three sets, with Kyrian Jacquet arriving from Tokyo and Tianhui Zhang rested after a month off. Jacquet beat Holger Rune 6-3 6-1 and Luciano Darderi this week in Tokyo (our archive), then lost to Jaume Munar October 4. Zhang lost 6-4 6-0 to Chun-hsin Tseng September 1 and has not played since. Searches today found no injury news for either man. Jacquet's one-day Tokyo-to-Shanghai turnaround and Zhang's fresh legs after 34 days off give the underdog his only lane: a flat favorite. Rune win shows Jacquet's level is far higher when fresh. This is a lopsided ATP book where this model has trailed the price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Alexis Galarneau vs Roman SafiullinOct 5, 3:00 AMAlexis Galarneau
Bet on Fliff
19%0.15/0.17—≤18ctake @17c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai Masters first round in Shanghai, outdoor hard, best-of-three sets. Roman Safiullin arrives after Beijing, where our data has him beating Cobolli 6-3 6-2 on Oct 1 and pushing Rublev to three sets Oct 3. Alexis Galarneau lost twice to Harris last week, including 2-6 3-6 on Sep 30 in Jingshan (our archive). Searches found no injury news for either man. Galarneau's only edge is fresher legs after five days off against a foe with 44 games in seven days plus Beijing-to-Shanghai travel. He must serve big and shorten points to spring the upset. This is a lopsided ATP book where our read has trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Rigele Te vs Adam WaltonOct 5, 3:00 AMRigele Te
Bet on Fliff
11%0.06/0.07—≤10ctake @7c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is Shanghai Masters qualifying, first round in Shanghai, on hard courts, first to two sets wins. Adam Walton, ranked near 97, went 2-1 last week in Jingshan with two easy wins before losing 7-5 6-2 to Bellucci on Oct 1 (tennis.com). Rigele Te, a Chinese wild card ranked near 840 (flashscore.ro, Oct 4), has lost three in a row, including to Tomic in Hangzhou (ESPN, Sep 22). Walton's tour-level serve and return should dominate rallies, while Te's rest edge after seven days off and home crowd support are his only real lifts. No injury or withdrawal news was found for either player. This is a lopsided ATP book where the market has beaten this model, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Bernard Tomic vs Terence AtmaneOct 5, 3:00 AMBernard Tomic
Bet on Fliff
33%0.28/0.29—≤31ctake @29c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a hard-court match at the Shanghai event, with first serve set for Oct 5. It is played as best-of-three sets, so a fast start matters a lot. Bernard Tomic comes in after a tough three-set win over Shimizu on Oct 2 and a same-day walkover loss to Bellucci in Jingshan (our data). Terence Atmane won twice in Jingshan then stopped mid-match against Ymer on Sept 30 with a retirement (our data). Atmane's retirement five days ago and Tomic's heavier week of 65 games in seven days are the keys. Tomic's angle is longer rallies testing Atmane's legs late. Searches found no new injury news. This is an ATP match on a lopsided book where this model has trailed the market price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Our Pick Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aleksandr ShevchenkoOct 5, 3:00 AMYoshihito Nishioka
Bet on Fliff
39%0.35/0.36—≤37ctake @36c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystEarly-round Shanghai Masters action in Shanghai, outdoor hard courts, best-of-three sets. Yoshihito Nishioka arrives rested after a straight-sets loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Tokyo on Sept 28 (our data), with no matches in the last week. Aleksandr Shevchenko played four matches and 72 games in seven days at the Asian Games through Oct 1 (our data), including a three-set loss to Himeno Matsuoka. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either man. Shevchenko's heavy week against weak opposition meets Nishioka's full week off, and Nishioka's return game can force long rallies on this surface. This is an ATP close-book call with both sides under 60c, where this model has held its own best, though on ATP overall it has trailed the price — so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Our Pick Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas MejiaOct 5, 3:00 AMChun-Hsin Tseng
Bet on Fliff
66%0.59/0.61—≤64ctake @61c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai Masters qualifying Round 1 in Shanghai, outdoor hard, first to two sets. Chun-Hsin Tseng flew in from Nagoya after going 2-1 in Asian Games singles (olympics.com, Oct 1) plus mixed doubles, so his legs are busy. Nicolas Mejia has rested 13 days but his last match ended in a 1-4 retirement on Sept 22 with an injured tag on Sept 25 (tennisexplorer.com). Mejia's recent retirement cloud is the biggest question. Tseng's three matches in seven days plus travel from Nagoya could leave him flat early. The wide 9-cent price gap shows the market doubts Mejia's body. Mejia's rest helps if he is fit, and a slow start from Tseng opens the door. Searches found no fresh withdrawal news. This is an ATP match on a lopsided book where the model has trailed the price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Martin Damm vs Pavel KotovOct 5, 3:00 AMPavel Kotov
Bet on Fliff
34%0.32/0.33—≤33cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai Masters first week in China, scheduled Oct 5, best-of-three sets with our feed not listing surface. Pavel Kotov arrives after a 7-5 6-3 loss to Mochizuki in Chengdu (Sept 23) and a heavy 0-6 3-6 loss to Sharipov, while Martin Damm beat the same Mochizuki 6-1 6-4 (Sept 24) and pushed Hurkacz and Fils. Searches today found no injury news for either man. Damm's straight-set win over a common opponent is the clearest form edge, while Kotov's 12 days of rest against Damm's busier week is his best hope if rallies get long. This is an ATP lopsided book where this model has trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Dane Sweeny vs Tristan SchoolkateOct 5, 3:00 AMTristan Schoolkate
Bet on Fliff
59%0.57/0.58—≤57cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is a Shanghai hard-court meeting with a spot in the next round on the line, played outdoors in quick conditions in a first-to-two-sets format. Dane Sweeny arrives 2-1 last week in Jingshan, China, while Tristan Schoolkate went 1-2 in France, all from our archive. Searches today found no injury or withdrawal news for either man. Sweeny is already in China and match-sharp while Schoolkate faces a France-to-China trip on four days that can dull serving and returning. That travel gap is the angle most miss. This is an ATP row on a lopsided book where this approach has trailed the market and held best only in close books, so keep trust low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Jie Cui vs Aleksandar VukicOct 5, 3:00 AMAleksandar Vukic
Bet on Fliff
68%0.67/0.69—≤67cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai Masters first round on outdoor hard in Shanghai, best of three sets. Aleksandar Vukic meets China's Jie Cui with a home crowd behind the underdog. Searches on Oct 4 found no new injury news for either man. Recent form from our archive: Cui beat Altmaier then lost to Van de Zandschulp in Beijing, while Vukic beat Seggerman then retired trailing Zhu in Jingshan on Sept 29. The angle others miss is Vukic's bigger first serve on Shanghai's quick courts, which should win cheap points against Cui's weaker return, plus Cui's extra pressure playing at home. This is an ATP match on a lopsided book, where this approach has trailed the market, so keep trust low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Cruz Hewitt vs Coleman WongOct 5, 3:00 AMCruz Hewitt
Bet on Fliff
20%0.20/0.21—≤19cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai ATP event in China, scheduled Oct 5, best-of-three sets where first to two sets wins. Cruz Hewitt, the pick, rested 17 days since a 1-6 3-6 loss to Simakin on Sept 18 (our archive), while Coleman Wong won three straight at the Asian Games Oct 1-3 including 6-2 6-4 over Wu (our archive). Wong's heavy week of five matches and 98 games could leave him tired, and Hewitt's long rest is the angle for an upset. Searches found no injury news for either player. This is a lopsided ATP book where this model has trailed the market price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Shintaro Mochizuki vs Taro DanielOct 5, 3:00 AMShintaro Mochizuki
Bet on Fliff
44%0.42/0.43—≤43cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is Shanghai qualifying Round 1 on outdoor hard in Shanghai, best-of-three sets. Shintaro Mochizuki faces fellow Japanese Taro Daniel with a main-draw spot on the line. Both lost in Tokyo qualifying on Sept 28 in straight sets (our data), then had a full week off, and searches on Oct 4 found no injury news for either. The qualifying setting keeps sets short and rewards the faster starter. A week of rest means tired legs should not decide it. Mochizuki's quicker first strike can rush Daniel early and steal the breaker moments. This is an ATP match on a close book, where this model has trailed the price overall but held up best when prices are close, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Timofey Skatov vs Stefanos SakellaridisOct 5, 3:00 AMTimofey Skatov
Bet on Fliff
37%0.36/0.37—≤36cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is the Shanghai Masters on outdoor hard courts in China, early in the event, best-of-three sets where first to two sets wins. Timofey Skatov is the pick against Stefanos Sakellaridis. Our data shows Sakellaridis has lost three straight, including a heavy loss to Alex Molcan, while Skatov split recent Asian Games matches with a three-set comeback win. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either man. Skatov's recent deciding-set toughness could help if this gets long, and Sakellaridis's cold form is hard to ignore. Skatov's heavy week of 73 games is a worry for tired legs. This is a lopsided ATP book where this model has trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre MullerOct 5, 3:00 AMRio Noguchi
Bet on Fliff
32%0.33/0.34—≤31cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai Masters hard court in Shanghai, early-round best-of-three on outdoor hard. Rio Noguchi, challenger-level grinder, meets tour regular Alexandre Muller, who has lost two straight including 6-0 6-3 to Bellucci on Sept 30 (our data). Noguchi is 1-2 in his last three but rested 12 days with no matches in the last week, while Muller played six matches in 14 days. Searches today found no injury news for either man. Noguchi can thrive if he drags rallies and attacks Muller's shaky second serve after a heavy stretch, and his fresh legs in a third set matter most. This is an ATP lopsided book where our read has trailed the price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andre IlaganOct 5, 3:00 AMNikoloz Basilashvili
Bet on Fliff
71%0.68/0.69—≤70ctake @69c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is an early-round Shanghai Masters match on outdoor hard in Shanghai, best-of-three sets. Nikoloz Basilashvili arrives rested after a solid Chengdu run with wins over Brooksby and Van de Zandschulp, while Andre Ilagan comes from the Jingshan Challenger where he lost to Harris on Oct 2. Targeted searches today found no injury news for either player. Basilashvili's tour-level baseline weight should press Ilagan's Challenger-level defense, and a full week's rest against three matches in seven days favors the pick late. Ilagan's recent Challenger wins keep him sharp early. This is an ATP match on a lopsided book, where this system has trailed the market price, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Our Pick Hugo Gaston vs Liam DraxlOct 5, 3:00 AMLiam Draxl
Bet on Fliff
44%0.41/0.42—≤42ctake @42c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystShanghai ATP hard-court match in best-of-three sets, with both men rested after early exits last month. Hugo Gaston went 2-1 at Hangzhou, pushing Andrey Rublev to three sets on Sept 27, while Liam Draxl went 1-1 at a San Diego Challenger and beat Arthur Rinderknech 6-2 7-5 in Davis Cup on Sept 18. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either man. Draxl should thrive because his flat deep returns can rush Gaston's drop-shot game and his Davis Cup win shows top-100 level on hard courts, while both arrive fresh after 8-12 days off so legs should hold. This is an ATP match on a close book where both sides are under 60c, the spot where this model has held up best even though it has trailed the price on ATP overall, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Aziz Dougaz vs Lorenzo SonegoOct 5, 3:00 AMAziz Dougaz
Bet on Fliff
20%0.20/0.21—≤19cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is an opening-round match at the Shanghai Masters in China, played outdoors on hard courts in a best-of-three format. Lorenzo Sonego arrives after tour-level matches in Chengdu and Tokyo in late September, losing two of his last three in our data, while Aziz Dougaz has been playing Futures and Davis Cup ties, with a loss to Komagata on Sept 23 as his latest held result. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury news for either player, so health looks even. Dougaz could thrive if Sonego's recent dip continues and his own match rhythm from qualifying carries over, plus low pressure as a big underdog lets him swing freely. This is a lopsided ATP book where this model has trailed the market, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Shanghai
Linang Xiao vs Federico CinaOct 5, 3:00 AMFederico Cina
Bet on Fliff
92%0.92/0.93——listed only
ATP
Beijing
Alex De Minaur vs Hubert HurkaczOct 5, 6:00 AMAlex De Minaur
Bet on Fliff
61%0.55/0.56—≤60ctake @56c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystBeijing final on outdoor hard in China, first to two sets wins. Alex De Minaur has won three straight this week, including a comeback over Rublev on Oct 4, and searches on Oct 4 found no injury news for him. Hubert Hurkacz also won three straight, beating Khachanov in straights on Oct 4, with no injury news found. De Minaur's fresher legs matter after playing 79 games in seven days to Hurkacz's 109. Hurkacz's heavy two weeks with eight matches in 14 days can dull his big serve late. De Minaur's speed and return should thrive in longer rallies. This is a close ATP book where this approach has held its own best but has trailed the market overall, so treat this as modest trust. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Tokyo
Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri LeheckaOct 5, 8:00 AMValentin Vacherot
Bet on Fliff
38%0.35/0.36—≤36ctake @36c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystTokyo Japan Open final, hard outdoor court in Tokyo, best-of-three sets (first to two sets wins). Valentin Vacherot has won three straight this week, beating Tsitsipas and Fils in three-set battles, but yesterday's 32-game semifinal left him with 91 games in seven days. Jiri Lehecka also won three straight, but crushed his semifinal 6-1 6-1, playing only 14 games yesterday and looking much fresher. No injury news was found in searches, so both look healthy. Vacherot's angle is his tiebreak nerve and return game that survived two deciders. This is an ATP match on a mildly lopsided book where this style of read has trailed the market price, so trust here is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ATP
Beijing
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil MedvedevOct 5, 10:00 AMNovak Djokovic
Bet on Fliff
43%0.44/0.45—≤42cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystBeijing final on outdoor hard, best-of-three, Djokovic vs Medvedev on Oct 5. Djokovic, 39, ground through Zverev 4-6 6-4 6-4 yesterday for his third win of the week (our archive), while Medvedev swept Cerundolo 7-6 6-3 for his third straight-sets win. Live searches today found no fresh injury news, and pre-read chatter about a Djokovic timeout could not be confirmed by searches on Oct 4. Medvedev's fresher legs and flat deep returns test Djokovic's movement, yet Djokovic's clutch serving to beat Zverev keeps him live. This is an ATP close-priced match where the model has trailed the price overall but held up best in close books, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou Qualification
Darya Khomutsianskaya vs Katarina ZavatskaOct 5, 1:00 AMDarya Khomutsianskaya
Bet on Fliff
57%0.53/0.54—≤53cno order · +EV ≤53c · fill ~57%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Aliona Falei vs Hanyu GuoOct 5, 1:00 AMHanyu Guo
Bet on Fliff
43%0.42/0.43—≤41cno order · +EV ≤41c · fill ~50%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan ShaoOct 5, 1:00 AMYulia Putintseva
Bet on Fliff
94%0.92/0.94—≤93cno order · +EV ≤93c · fill ~62%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Tyra Caterina Grant vs Alexandra ShubladzeOct 5, 1:00 AMAlexandra Shubladze
Bet on Fliff
57%0.54/0.58—≤55cno order · +EV ≤55c · fill ~51%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Zhuoxuan Bai vs Moyuka UchijimaOct 5, 1:00 AMMoyuka Uchijima
Bet on Fliff
53%0.51/0.52—≤50cno order · +EV ≤50c · fill ~51%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Linda Fruhvirtova vs Mananchaya SawangkaewOct 5, 1:00 AMMananchaya Sawangkaew
Bet on Fliff
63%0.61/0.62—≤60cno order · +EV ≤60c · fill ~51%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou Qualification
Han Shi vs Yidi YangOct 5, 1:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.80/0.81——listed only
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou Qualification
Jia-Jing Lu vs Wushuang ZhengOct 5, 1:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.57/0.58——listed only
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Mai Hontama vs Emerson JonesOct 5, 1:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.42/0.43——listed only
CH
Challenger Wuning 3 Qualification
Keisuke Saitoh vs Yusuke TakahashiOct 5, 1:00 AMKeisuke Saitoh
Bet on Fliff
63%0.60/0.61——listed only
CH
Challenger Wuning 3 Qualification
Martin Borisiouk vs Kristjan TammOct 5, 1:00 AMMartin Borisiouk
Bet on Fliff
76%0.76/0.77——listed only
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou Qualification
Our Pick Kyoka Okamura vs Sijia WeiOct 5, 2:10 AMKyoka Okamura
Bet on Fliff
40%0.31/0.32—≤38ctake @32c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystQualifying at the WTA 125 in Suzhou, China, with a main-draw spot on the line in a best-of-three sets match. Kyoka Okamura comes in after a 6-3 7-6 win over Nugroho yesterday in Suzhou and a tight quarterfinal loss to Jones in Jingshan, while Sijia Wei routed Matsuda 6-2 6-2 yesterday after a three-set loss to Shubladze. Searches today found no injury or withdrawal news for either player. Okamura's edge is experience and tiebreak toughness, but her heavy week of four matches and 95 games against Wei's fresher legs and home soil in China and Wei's cleaner straight-sets form yesterday point the other way. This is a close-priced WTA Challenger where our read usually tracks the market, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Alevtina Ibragimova vs Rebecca SramkovaOct 5, 2:10 AMAlevtina Ibragimova
Bet on Fliff
44%0.42/0.43—≤42cno order · +EV ≤42c · fill ~54%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Tatiana Prozorova vs Ruien ZhangOct 5, 2:10 AMTatiana Prozorova
Bet on Fliff
91%0.90/0.91—≤90cno order · +EV ≤90c · fill ~58%
CH
Challenger Wuning 3 Qualification
Yuta Kikuchi vs Ryuki MatsudaOct 5, 3:00 AMRyuki Matsuda
Bet on Fliff
69%0.69/0.70——listed only
CH
Challenger Wuning 3 Qualification
Blake Bayldon vs Max PurcellOct 5, 3:00 AMMax Purcell
Bet on Fliff
90%0.94/0.95——listed only
CH
Challenger Wuning 3 Qualification
Ryan Seggerman vs Maxim ZhukovOct 5, 3:00 AMMaxim Zhukov
Bet on Fliff
27%0.20/0.21——listed only
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Elsa Jacquemot vs Claire LiuOct 5, 3:20 AMElsa Jacquemot
Bet on Fliff
39%0.38/0.39—≤37cno order · +EV ≤37c · fill ~50%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Darya Astakhova vs Sofia CostoulasOct 5, 3:20 AMSofia Costoulas
Bet on Fliff
55%0.52/0.54—≤52cno order · +EV ≤52c · fill ~55%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Elvina Kalieva vs Yexin MaOct 5, 3:20 AMElvina Kalieva
Bet on Fliff
59%0.58/0.59—≤57cno order · +EV ≤57c · fill ~50%
WTA-CH
125K Suzhou
Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Xinxin YaoOct 5, 4:30 AMXinxin Yao
Bet on Fliff
14%0.13/0.14—≤13cno order · +EV ≤13c · fill ~65%
CH
Challenger Wuning 3
Beibit Zhukayev vs Yaroslav DeminOct 5, 5:00 AMYaroslav Demin
Bet on Fliff
48%0.43/0.440.42/0.43—listed only
CH
Challenger Wuning 3
Sergey Fomin vs Timofei DerepaskoOct 5, 5:00 AMSergey Fomin
Bet on Fliff
65%0.65/0.660.66/0.67—listed only
CH
Challenger Wuning 3
Semen Pankin vs Marat SharipovOct 5, 5:00 AMSemen Pankin
Bet on Fliff
23%0.13/0.140.14/0.15—listed only
CH
Challenger Wuning 3
Akira Santillan vs Luca CastelnuovoOct 5, 7:00 AMAkira Santillan
Bet on Fliff
49%0.46/0.470.46/0.48≤47ctake @47c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is an early-round match at Challenger Wuning 3 in China on outdoor hard courts, best-of-three sets meaning first to two sets wins. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either man, so both look healthy. Akira Santillan last played Sept 29, losing to Pavlovic, with a strong 6-3 6-0 win over Kang on Sept 22 in our data. Luca Castelnuovo has been idle since Sept 22, when he pushed Kotov to three sets, and his prior win came when Jasika retired. Match sharpness favors Santillan after Castelnuovo's two-week layoff, and Santillan's dominant last win is the angle others miss. This is a close book where our read has tied the market on Challenger, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA-CH
125K Samsun Qualification
Our Pick Mariam Bolkvadze vs Mariia TkachevaOct 5, 7:00 AMMariam Bolkvadze
Bet on Fliff
58%0.54/0.56—≤56cmake ≤55c · fill 72%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystQualifying at the WTA 125 in Samsun, Turkey for a place in the main draw. Best-of-three sets, so the steadier player over two sets moves on. Mariam Bolkvadze won her opener 6-1 6-0 yesterday and Mariia Tkacheva won 6-2 6-2 yesterday, from our results archive. Bolkvadze's opener was more dominant and she brings the deeper record. Both played yesterday so legs are even and neither carries extra load. Searches today found no injury or withdrawal news on either player. Bolkvadze should thrive because her cleaner ball-striking takes time away from a fellow qualifier who lost twice at ITF level last month. Trust is modest: this is a close price under 60c on a WTA Challenger, the spot where this model has tied the market rather than beaten it. — iPredictSport analyst
WTA-CH
125K Samsun Qualification
Elena Micic vs Noma Noha AkugueOct 5, 7:00 AMElena Micic
Bet on Fliff
32%0.31/0.32—≤31cno order · +EV ≤31c · fill ~60%
WTA-CH
125K Samsun Qualification
Weronika Falkowska vs Caroline WernerOct 5, 7:30 AMWeronika Falkowska
Bet on Fliff
53%0.50/0.53—≤51cno order · +EV ≤51c · fill ~63%
CH
Challenger Villena Qualification
Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Oliver TarvetOct 5, 8:00 AMDiego Dedura-Palomero
Bet on Fliff
30%0.24/0.25—≤27ctake @25c
CH
Challenger Villena Qualification
Georgii Kravchenko vs Hugo GrenierOct 5, 8:00 AMGeorgii Kravchenko
Bet on Fliff
35%0.33/0.34—≤34cno order · +EV ≤33c · fill ~65%
CH
Challenger Braga Qualification
Vladyslav Orlov vs Johan NiklesOct 5, 8:00 AMVladyslav Orlov
Bet on Fliff
39%0.34/0.36—≤38cmake ≤35c · fill 72%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystBraga Challenger qualifying in Portugal, final rounds before the main draw, outdoor clay in cool October air, best-of-three sets. Both men won easily yesterday — Orlov 6-1 6-1 and Nikles 6-1 6-2 from our archive — so both are fresh with almost no fatigue. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either man. Orlov's angle is clean early striking that can rush Nikles' second serve, while Nikles has shown a bit more fight in recent weeks. Thin history on both men means the numbers are shaky. This is a lopsided Challenger qualifying book, the spot where this read has lost ground in the past, so keep trust low. — iPredictSport analyst
CH
Challenger Villena Qualification
Marko Topo vs Dominic StrickerOct 5, 8:00 AMMarko Topo
Bet on Fliff
38%0.37/0.38—≤38cno order · +EV ≤37c · fill ~65%
CH
Challenger Braga Qualification
Olle Wallin vs Tiago CacaoOct 5, 8:00 AMOlle Wallin
Bet on Fliff
62%0.63/0.64——listed only
CH
Challenger Braga Qualification
Filip Misolic vs Patrick SchoenOct 5, 8:00 AMPatrick Schoen
Bet on Fliff
48%0.36/0.39——listed only
CH
Challenger Palermo Qualification
Kalin Ivanovski vs Federico ArnaboldiOct 5, 8:00 AMKalin Ivanovski
Bet on Fliff
47%0.44/0.46——listed only
CH
Challenger Palermo Qualification
Yanaki Milev vs Daniel SiniakovOct 5, 8:00 AMDaniel Siniakov
Bet on Fliff
56%0.52/0.53——listed only
CH
Challenger Palermo Qualification
Pedro Vives Marcos vs Gerard Campana LeeOct 5, 8:00 AMGerard Campana Lee
Bet on Fliff
50%0.48/0.49——listed only
WTA-CH
125K Samsun
Lucia Bronzetti vs Fiona CrawleyOct 5, 8:10 AMFiona Crawley
Bet on Fliff
56%0.54/0.56—≤54cno order · +EV ≤54c · fill ~64%
WTA-CH
125K Samsun
Dalma Galfi vs Julia GrabherOct 5, 8:10 AMJulia Grabher
Bet on Fliff
36%0.34/0.35—≤34cno order · +EV ≤34c · fill ~62%
WTA-CH
125K Samsun Qualification
Dalila Jakupovic vs Alana SmithOct 5, 8:40 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.50/0.53——listed only
CH
Challenger Braga Qualification
Filip Pieczonka vs Oleksii KrutykhOct 5, 9:10 AMOleksii Krutykh
Bet on Fliff
53%0.50/0.52—≤51cmake ≤51c · fill 70%
CH
Challenger Villena Qualification
Pyotr Nesterov vs Hynek BartonOct 5, 9:10 AMPyotr Nesterov
Bet on Fliff
40%0.38/0.39—≤38cno order · +EV ≤38c · fill ~65%
CH
Challenger Braga Qualification
Nicolas Barrientos vs Javier Barranco CosanoOct 5, 9:10 AMNicolas Barrientos
Bet on Fliff
32%0.26/0.28—≤28ctake @28c
CH
Challenger Braga Qualification
Benjamin Hassan vs Ryan NijboerOct 5, 9:10 AMBenjamin Hassan
Bet on Fliff
59%0.56/0.57—≤57ctake @57c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystBraga Challenger qualifying on outdoor clay in Portugal, final round for the main draw, best-of-three sets. Benjamin Hassan arrives fresh after a 6-3 6-1 win yesterday (our archive), while Ryan Nijboer needed three sets and 31 games to survive the same day after playing five matches and 116 games in seven days. Searches today found no injury news. Hassan's fresh legs should show in long rallies, and Nijboer's heavy week with back-to-back three-setters points to a slow start. Clay rewards the steadier mover, which favors Hassan here. This is a close-priced Challenger qualifier where this approach has held its own with the market, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
CH
Challenger Palermo Qualification
Christian Langmo vs Oleksandr OvcharenkoOct 5, 9:10 AMChristian Langmo
Bet on Fliff
33%0.31/0.32—≤32cno order · +EV ≤31c · fill ~65%
CH
Challenger Palermo Qualification
Dimitris Sakellaridis vs Matyas CernyOct 5, 9:10 AMDimitris Sakellaridis
Bet on Fliff
41%0.35/0.38——listed only
CH
Challenger Palermo Qualification
Filippo Moroni vs Ignacio Parisca RomeraOct 5, 9:10 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.47/0.50——listed only
WTA-CH
125K Samsun
Himeno Sakatsume vs Dominika SalkovaOct 5, 9:20 AMHimeno Sakatsume
Bet on Fliff
53%0.50/0.51—≤50cmake ≤50c · fill 71%
WTA-CH
125K Samsun
Polina Iatcenko vs Suzan LamensOct 5, 9:20 AMPolina Iatcenko
Bet on Fliff
53%0.52/0.53—≤51cno order · +EV ≤51c · fill ~64%
CH
Challenger Villena Qualification
Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Philip HenningOct 5, 9:30 AMIvan Marrero Curbelo
Bet on Fliff
26%0.23/0.25—≤25cmake ≤24c · fill 72%
CH
Challenger Villena Qualification
Max Hans Rehberg vs Mili PoljicakOct 5, 10:00 AMMili Poljicak
Bet on Fliff
41%0.37/0.39—≤39cmake ≤38c · fill 72%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystQualifying at the Villena Challenger in Spain, best-of-three sets — first to two sets wins. Surface was not listed in our data. Both men won long three-setters yesterday, so legs are heavy but searches found no injury news. Rehberg (around No. 274 on his ATP Tour profile, checked Oct 4) arrives with two easy Futures wins in September, while Poljicak lost 6-2 6-0 on Oct 1 then went the distance yesterday. Poljicak's heavier week (45 games in seven days vs 31) and Rehberg's steadier form tilt this matchup, yet Poljicak's grinding style can drag sets long if Rehberg cools off. This is a close book on a Challenger, the spot where this model has tied the market, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
CH
Challenger Braga
Zsombor Piros vs Tristan BoyerOct 5, 10:20 AMTristan Boyer
Bet on Fliff
42%0.37/0.38—≤38cmake ≤37c · fill 71%
CH
Challenger Braga
Filip Cristian Jianu vs Duje AjdukovicOct 5, 10:20 AMFilip Cristian Jianu
Bet on Fliff
43%0.41/0.42—≤40cno order · +EV ≤40c · fill ~62%
CH
Challenger Braga
Goncalo Marques vs Nikolas Sanchez IzquierdoOct 5, 10:20 AMGoncalo Marques
Bet on Fliff
19%0.11/0.12——listed only
CH
Challenger Villena
Dino Prizmic vs Jack Pinnington JonesOct 5, 11:00 AMJack Pinnington Jones
Bet on Fliff
29%0.22/0.240.23/0.24≤26cmake ≤23c · fill 78%
CH
Challenger Villena
Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Daniel RinconOct 5, 11:00 AMAlejo Sanchez Quilez
Bet on Fliff
34%0.34/0.35—≤33cno order · +EV ≤33c · fill ~62%
CH
Challenger Braga
Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer MollerOct 5, 11:30 AMElmer Moller
Bet on Fliff
48%0.46/0.47—≤45cno order · +EV ≤45c · fill ~63%
CH
Challenger Braga
Vilius Gaubas vs Joao DominguesOct 5, 11:30 AMVilius Gaubas
Bet on Fliff
69%0.81/0.83——listed only
CH
Challenger Antofagasta Qualification
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Joaquin Aguilar CardozoOct 5, 12:00 PMLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Bet on Fliff
22%0.15/0.16—≤19ctake @16c
CH
Challenger Antofagasta Qualification
Alan Magadan vs Joao Eduardo SchiesslOct 5, 12:00 PMAlan Magadan
Bet on Fliff
50%0.46/0.48—≤49cmake ≤47c · fill 78%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is qualifying at the Antofagasta Challenger in Chile, on outdoor clay (atptour.com, Oct 4) in best-of-three sets. Alan Magadan (Mexico, No.515) and Joao Schiessl (Brazil, No.514) per entry lists (ticktocktennis.com, Sep 30) both survived 31-game three-set wins yesterday to reach this round. Schiessl has played six matches in 14 days and 78 games in seven days while Magadan has played just once in two weeks, so fresher legs should help the pick on slow clay. Both men are low-ranked grinders with thin scouting, so longer rallies favor the steadier server. No injury or withdrawal news found for either player. This is a close Challenger book where our read has tied the market, so trust is modest. — iPredictSport analyst
CH
Challenger Antofagasta Qualification
Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Hernan CasanovaOct 5, 12:00 PMHernan Casanova
Bet on Fliff
73%0.70/0.73——listed only
CH
Challenger Villena
Moez Echargui vs Raul BrancaccioOct 5, 12:10 PMRaul Brancaccio
Bet on Fliff
41%0.30/0.350.34/0.40≤34cmake ≤34c · fill 78%
ITF-M
Kigali
LUCAS GONCALVES FRANCA vs Rishabhdev Rajshekar RamanOct 4, 4:58 PMRishabhdev Rajshekar Raman
Bet on Fliff
52%0.20/0.240.15/0.29—listed only
ITF-W
Chisinau
Nala Kovacic vs Sophie LuescherOct 5, 9:00 AMNala Kovacic
Bet on Fliff
16%0.07/0.15—≤15cmake ≤14c · fill 72%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is an early-round ITF women's match in Chisinau, played October 5, best-of-three sets. Surface was not confirmed in our package. Both players won easily yesterday in the same event — Luescher 6-0 6-0 and Kovacic 6-0 6-2, from our archive. Targeted searches today found no injury or withdrawal news for either player. Luescher brings deeper experience with 42 archived matches to 16 for Kovacic and the cleaner last win. Both are fresh with only short matches yesterday, so fitness should not decide it. The angle others miss is how thin Kovacic's record is, which makes any rating shaky. This is a lopsided ITF board where our model is unvalidated, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ITF-W
Burgas
avoid Maia Ilinca Burcescu vs Sarah Van EmstOct 5, 9:00 AMMaia Ilinca Burcescu
Bet on Fliff
51%0.41/0.61 wide—≤50cno order · +EV ≤50c · fill ~57%
ITF-W
Heraklion
Juliette Mazzoni vs Giulia Alessia MonteleoneOct 5, 9:00 AMGiulia Alessia Monteleone
Bet on Fliff
32%0.24/0.26—≤30cmake ≤25c · fill 72%
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is an early-round ITF women's match in Heraklion, Greece, set for Oct 5, played as best-of-three sets. Juliette Mazzoni comes in after a 6-4 6-2 win over Fusil on Oct 4 in our data, while Giulia Alessia Monteleone last lost 6-2 6-0 to Ercan on Sept 20 in our data. Targeted searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either player. Monteleone's case is two weeks of rest against a player on a next-day turnaround and a thin ITF book where prices swing on little money. The worry is her heavy last loss shows poor form. This is a lopsided book where computer picks like this have trailed the market before, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ITF-W
Chisinau
Alina Nesmianovych vs Luisa SchruffOct 5, 9:00 AMAlina Nesmianovych
Bet on Fliff
57%0.41/0.70 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Chisinau
Justine Bretnacher vs Sonia Erika Butuc CerchezOct 5, 9:00 AMSonia Erika Butuc Cerchez
Bet on Fliff
30%0.21/0.35——listed only
ITF-W
Chisinau
Delia Gaillard vs Onalee WagnerOct 5, 9:00 AMOnalee Wagner
Bet on Fliff
37%0.31/0.41——listed only
ITF-W
Burgas
Bianca Elena Barbulescu vs Melis RasimOct 5, 9:00 AMMelis Rasim
Bet on Fliff
32%0.12/0.50 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Burgas
Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Beatris SpasovaOct 5, 9:00 AMBeatris Spasova
Bet on Fliff
10%0.07/0.10——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Stella Jurina vs Leticia RomanovaOct 5, 9:00 AMStella Jurina
Bet on Fliff
21%0.18/0.20——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Georgina Groth vs Anastasia HuijsegomsOct 5, 9:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.85/0.92——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Luisa Hrda vs Noa Krznaric UygungulOct 5, 9:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.36/0.40——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Mattia Nannelli vs Andrea PaoliniOct 5, 9:30 AMMattia Nannelli
Bet on Fliff
32%0.24/0.37——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Mihai Alexandru Coman vs Jasza SzajrychOct 5, 9:30 AMMihai Alexandru Coman
Bet on Fliff
58%0.41/0.74 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Ole Bredschneijder vs Arthur LabordeOct 5, 9:30 AMOle Bredschneijder
Bet on Fliff
19%0.07/0.28 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Ares Teixido GarciaOct 5, 9:30 AMAres Teixido Garcia
Bet on Fliff
40%0.29/0.50 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva vs Marina Quesada OyonarteOct 5, 9:30 AMMarina Quesada Oyonarte
Bet on Fliff
18%0.06/0.28 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Cristina Diaz Adrover vs Ana Maye MartinezOct 5, 9:30 AMAna Maye Martinez
Bet on Fliff
24%0.05/0.38 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Burgas
Nicole Gadient vs Diana-Ioana SimionescuOct 5, 10:00 AMNicole Gadient
Bet on Fliff
17%0.16/0.18—≤16cno order · +EV ≤16c · fill ~59%
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Sean HODKIN vs Tom JonioOct 5, 10:00 AMTom Jonio
Bet on Fliff
29%0.10/0.46 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Martin SIMON vs Ids WaterbolkOct 5, 10:00 AMMartin SIMON
Bet on Fliff
41%0.31/0.48 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Victor Bonnet Eymard vs Thomas GerbaudOct 5, 10:00 AMVictor Bonnet Eymard
Bet on Fliff
32%0.05/0.56 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Kigali
Chetanna Amadike vs Gauderic VilmaureOct 5, 10:00 AMChetanna Amadike
Bet on Fliff
44%0.08/0.78 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Kigali
Lawrence Bataljin vs Nnamdi Alexander OjiOct 5, 10:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.07/0.92 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Chisinau
Ekaterina Agureeva vs Maria Pares Bergnes de las CasasOct 5, 10:00 AMMaria Pares Bergnes de las Casas
Bet on Fliff
25%0.19/0.27——listed only
ITF-W
Chisinau
Aurora Corvi vs Yeva GaliievskaOct 5, 10:00 AMYeva Galiievska
Bet on Fliff
38%0.19/0.55 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Chisinau
Alessia Marinescu vs Yelizaveta TrushOct 5, 10:00 AMAlessia Marinescu
Bet on Fliff
51%0.31/0.68 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Chisinau
Sophia Ksandinov vs Thea MarcuOct 5, 10:00 AMSophia Ksandinov
Bet on Fliff
60%0.40/0.80 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Burgas
Andzhelina Kostova vs Galena KrastenovaOct 5, 10:00 AMAndzhelina Kostova
Bet on Fliff
19%0.14/0.21——listed only
ITF-W
Burgas
Lucie Petruzelova vs Darya VelikovaOct 5, 10:00 AMDarya Velikova
Bet on Fliff
15%0.12/0.15——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Mia Chudejova vs Zejda VeljacicOct 5, 10:00 AMMia Chudejova
Bet on Fliff
68%0.57/0.78 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Emma Mazzoni vs Cristina PESCUCCIOct 5, 10:00 AMEmma Mazzoni
Bet on Fliff
14%0.10/0.15——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Noemi La Cagnina vs Maria RentoumiOct 5, 10:00 AMMaria Rentoumi
Bet on Fliff
38%0.26/0.37——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Keira Blackbeard vs Charlotte PikkaartOct 5, 10:00 AMKeira Blackbeard
Bet on Fliff
19%0.13/0.23——listed only
ITF-M
Kigali
George Gregoriou vs Lenny PetitOct 5, 10:30 AMGeorge Gregoriou
Bet on Fliff
10%0.06/0.10——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Richard Antoni vs Cian MaguireOct 5, 10:30 AMRichard Antoni
Bet on Fliff
54%0.38/0.67 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Vardan Manukyan vs Timo Rosenkranz KoenigOct 5, 10:30 AMVardan Manukyan
Bet on Fliff
36%0.05/0.62 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Mihail Ivanov vs Maximilian TodorovOct 5, 10:30 AMMaximilian Todorov
Bet on Fliff
57%0.41/0.73 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
Anna Burchak vs Lian TranOct 5, 10:30 AMAnna Burchak
Bet on Fliff
14%0.07/0.15——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
Liv Boulard vs Hanna BougouffaOct 5, 10:30 AMLiv Boulard
Bet on Fliff
63%0.55/0.71 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Esther Lopez Alcaraz vs Maria Trujillo GarnicaOct 5, 10:30 AMMaria Trujillo Garnica
Bet on Fliff
19%0.07/0.29 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Anna Cabassers Morros vs Silvia CalimanOct 5, 10:30 AMSilvia Caliman
Bet on Fliff
41%0.38/0.43——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Ailish Garcia Fernandez vs Vanja GudeljOct 5, 10:30 AMVanja Gudelj
Bet on Fliff
21%0.15/0.27——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Laura Boehner vs Angelica SaraOct 5, 10:30 AMLaura Boehner
Bet on Fliff
30%0.26/0.34——listed only
ITF-W
Burgas
Anna Ozerova vs Giulia Safina PopaOct 5, 11:00 AMAnna Ozerova
Bet on Fliff
9%0.05/0.06—≤8ctake @6c
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystBurgas W15 in Bulgaria moves to its next round on Oct 5 in a short best-of-three sets format. Searches found no injury or withdrawal news for either player. Anna Ozerova is fresh after a 6-3 2-6 6-2 win on Oct 4, while Giulia Safina Popa won three straight including two straight-set wins on Oct 4. The angle others miss is fresh legs against heavy legs, with Popa logging 128 games in seven days against Ozerova's one match. That tired edge is the only path for the underdog against an in-form favorite. This is a lopsided book on an ITF where this system is untested, so trust is low. — iPredictSport analyst
ITF-W
Burgas
Oana Georgeta Simion vs Sonja ZhenikhovaOct 5, 11:00 AMOana Georgeta Simion
Bet on Fliff
59%0.55/0.59—≤56cno order · +EV ≤56c · fill ~62%
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Romain Andres vs Lilian ChidekhOct 5, 11:00 AMRomain Andres
Bet on Fliff
54%0.46/0.62 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Alex Kobelt vs Noah MaligeOct 5, 11:00 AMNoah Malige
Bet on Fliff
57%0.51/0.62——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Rahul Dhokia vs Louis SALLARDOct 5, 11:00 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.06/0.90 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Kigali
Yash Chaurasia vs Ethan TerblancheOct 5, 11:00 AMEthan Terblanche
Bet on Fliff
18%0.13/0.18——listed only
ITF-M
Kigali
Niklas Grunewald vs Mehluli Don Ayanda SibandaOct 5, 11:00 AMMehluli Don Ayanda Sibanda
Bet on Fliff
56%0.10/0.94 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Kigali
Mayank Sharma vs Darrshan SureshOct 5, 11:00 AMDarrshan Suresh
Bet on Fliff
68%0.38/0.94 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Cezar Stefan Bentzel vs Maxim KhorozovOct 5, 11:30 AMMaxim Khorozov
Bet on Fliff
36%0.10/0.59 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Mario Arce Fernandez vs Daniel BatistaOct 5, 11:30 AMDaniel Batista
Bet on Fliff
27%0.16/0.19——listed only
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Pedro Anton Ruibal vs Diogo MarquesOct 5, 11:30 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.06/0.15——listed only
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Javier Munoz Fuster vs Ramon Talin maizOct 5, 11:30 AM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.88/0.92——listed only
ITF-M
Burgas
Matei Florin Breazu vs Benedikt SzerencsitsOct 5, 11:30 AMMatei Florin Breazu
Bet on Fliff
73%0.58/0.87 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
Charlotte CORA--BRUNETON vs Marie VilletOct 5, 11:30 AMCharlotte CORA--BRUNETON
Bet on Fliff
33%0.14/0.24——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
Kaat Coppez vs Lilian PolingOct 5, 11:30 AMKaat Coppez
Bet on Fliff
50%0.46/0.53——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Helena Muzinic vs Maria Eleni PoulkaOct 5, 11:30 AMHelena Muzinic
Bet on Fliff
58%0.54/0.61——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Eleni Chatziavraam vs Lola GizaOct 5, 11:30 AMEleni Chatziavraam
Bet on Fliff
8%0.05/0.06——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Tilwith Di Girolami vs Sofia NikolaidouOct 5, 11:30 AMSofia Nikolaidou
Bet on Fliff
16%0.05/0.24 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Maddalena Giordano vs Maayan LaronOct 5, 11:30 AMMaayan Laron
Bet on Fliff
72%0.46/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Helene Pellicano vs Laura Rabasco SeguraOct 5, 11:30 AMLaura Rabasco Segura
Bet on Fliff
18%0.06/0.27 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Seville
Yasmine Kabbaj vs Neus Torner SensanoOct 5, 12:00 PMYasmine Kabbaj
Bet on Fliff
76%0.72/0.78—≤75cno order
Match Notes
iPredictSport analystThis is an ITF women's match in Seville, Spain, planned for Oct 5. Women's ITF matches are best-of-three, first to win two sets. Both players should be rested — our data shows no singles matches in the last two weeks for either. Searches on Oct 4 found no injury or withdrawal news for either player. Kabbaj arrives in better form with two wins in her last three in Valencia in mid-September, while Torner Sensano lost her last three, all in straight sets. The key angle is recent level: Kabbaj has been winning sets comfortably and Torner has not. This is a lopsided ITF book where this approach has historically been less reliable than on close matches, so keep trust low. — iPredictSport analyst
ITF-W
Lagos
Miroslava Medvedeva vs Georgiana MititeluOct 5, 12:00 PMGeorgiana Mititelu
Bet on Fliff
28%0.22/0.25——listed only
ITF-W
Lagos
Elizabeth Jurna vs Stefaniya PushkarOct 5, 12:00 PMStefaniya Pushkar
Bet on Fliff
47%0.42/0.50——listed only
ITF-W
Lagos
Sana Garakani vs Katarina KujovicOct 5, 12:00 PMSana Garakani
Bet on Fliff
11%0.06/0.10——listed only
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Ian Lucca Cervantes Tomas vs Luis Garcia PaezOct 5, 12:30 PMLuis Garcia Paez
Bet on Fliff
57%0.42/0.68 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Yannick Castelnuovo vs Vasco Leote PrataOct 5, 12:30 PMYannick Castelnuovo
Bet on Fliff
11%0.05/0.10——listed only
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento vs Fermin Barcala LopezOct 5, 12:30 PMMateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Bet on Fliff
62%0.49/0.68 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Hugo Cardinaud vs VALENTIN LATRUBESSEOct 5, 1:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.06/0.90 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Justin Lenders vs Ruslan SerazhetdinovOct 5, 1:00 PMRuslan Serazhetdinov
Bet on Fliff
35%0.17/0.48 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Axel Garcian vs Sacha GrandvincentOct 5, 1:00 PMSacha Grandvincent
Bet on Fliff
35%0.10/0.52 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
eunchae Kim vs Mariella ThammOct 5, 1:00 PMeunchae Kim
Bet on Fliff
26%0.19/0.25——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
Kim Chiarello vs Heerae ImOct 5, 1:00 PMHeerae Im
Bet on Fliff
41%0.29/0.46 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lagos
Georgina Hays vs Polina IsakovaOct 5, 1:00 PMGeorgina Hays
Bet on Fliff
50%0.47/0.51——listed only
ITF-W
Lagos
Daisy Mewett vs Maaya Rajeshwaran RevathiOct 5, 1:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lagos
Analu Freitas vs Kennedy GibbsOct 5, 1:00 PMAnalu Freitas
Bet on Fliff
23%0.20/0.24——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Elena Korokozidi vs Katja WiersholmOct 5, 1:00 PMKatja Wiersholm
Bet on Fliff
16%0.11/0.14——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Lara Schmidt vs Viktoria VelevaOct 5, 1:00 PMViktoria Veleva
Bet on Fliff
44%0.36/0.47——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Sofia Kryvoruchko vs Simona OgescuOct 5, 1:00 PMSofia Kryvoruchko
Bet on Fliff
24%0.14/0.22——listed only
ITF-W
Heraklion
Mika Buchnik vs Maria HerazoOct 5, 1:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.52/0.56——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
Elise Renard vs Klara VeldmanOct 5, 2:00 PMKlara Veldman
Bet on Fliff
64%0.59/0.69—≤63cno order · +EV ≤63c · fill ~61%
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Rodrigo Duarte vs Noah ThurnerOct 5, 2:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.06/0.34 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Pontevedra
Carlos Giraldi vs Nicolas Rafael Goldberg AlvianiOct 5, 2:00 PMNicolas Rafael Goldberg Alviani
Bet on Fliff
26%0.14/0.34 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Octave Caillat vs Jaume Casas BlasiOct 5, 2:00 PMOctave Caillat
Bet on Fliff
50%0.06/0.90 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Bienvenue Bolangi vs Albin ColetteOct 5, 2:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.50 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Yannick Baluska vs Yannis BatsabakenOct 5, 2:00 PMYannick Baluska
Bet on Fliff
43%0.18/0.62 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Villeneuve d'Ascq
Margaux Komano vs Marine SzostakOct 5, 2:00 PMMargaux Komano
Bet on Fliff
27%0.18/0.21——listed only
ITF-W
Lagos
Beatriz Castro vs Carlotta MocciaOct 5, 2:00 PMBeatriz Castro
Bet on Fliff
24%0.05/0.06——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Jules Alias vs Philippe RenardOct 5, 3:00 PMPhilippe Renard
Bet on Fliff
53%0.10/0.94 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Julien Dando vs Robin EldinOct 5, 3:00 PMJulien Dando
Bet on Fliff
57%0.06/0.90 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Maxence Rivet vs Paul TheateOct 5, 3:00 PMPaul Theate
Bet on Fliff
39%0.17/0.28——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Melina Maria Maruca vs Fernanda RainOct 5, 3:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.86 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Gabriela Kawano Cho vs Agustina Soto NeiraOct 5, 3:00 PMGabriela Kawano Cho
Bet on Fliff
42%0.36/0.46——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Agustina Daniela Duarte vs Aiken TejadaOct 5, 3:00 PMAiken Tejada
Bet on Fliff
32%0.05/0.50 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
avoid Eva Maria Ionescu vs Maria KononovaOct 5, 4:00 PMEva Maria Ionescu
Bet on Fliff
58%0.05/0.95 wide—≤56cmake ≤56c · fill 80%
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Alexis Nguyen vs Catherine RennardOct 5, 4:00 PMCatherine Rennard
Bet on Fliff
52%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Carlota Moreno vs Victoria OsuigweOct 5, 4:00 PMCarlota Moreno
Bet on Fliff
64%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Ema Burgic vs Serafima ElizarovaOct 5, 4:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Amparo Corvalan Mitilli vs Camila MarkusOct 5, 4:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Diva Bhatia vs Isabella MaiOct 5, 4:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Justina Lassaga vs Emily ZornadaOct 5, 4:00 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Megan Heuser vs Kira MatushkinaOct 5, 5:00 PMKira Matushkina
Bet on Fliff
68%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Helena Buchwald vs Tatum EvansOct 5, 5:00 PMTatum Evans
Bet on Fliff
62%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Francoise Abanda vs Charlotte NartiOct 5, 5:00 PMFrancoise Abanda
Bet on Fliff
55%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Jane Dunyon vs Pietra RivoliOct 5, 5:00 PMPietra Rivoli
Bet on Fliff
54%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Quito
Juan Sebastian Dominguez Collado vs Facundo PerlovOct 5, 5:30 PMFacundo Perlov
Bet on Fliff
54%0.10/0.94 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Quito
Miles Clark vs Diego GiraldoOct 5, 5:30 PMDiego Giraldo
Bet on Fliff
57%0.10/0.94 wide——listed only
ITF-M
Quito
Victor Bini vs Enmanuel MunozOct 5, 5:30 PMVictor Bini
Bet on Fliff
51%0.06/0.90 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Ana Victoria Gobbi Monllau vs Sol Ailin Larraya GuidiOct 5, 5:30 PMAna Victoria Gobbi Monllau
Bet on Fliff
39%0.05/0.56 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Guadalupe Rondinoni vs CAIRA DELFINA VEGA GUDINOOct 5, 5:30 PMCAIRA DELFINA VEGA GUDINO
Bet on Fliff
54%0.06/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-M
+H Rodez
Leo Lagarrigue vs Jeremy LAUMONOct 5, 6:00 PMLeo Lagarrigue
Bet on Fliff
58%0.06/0.90 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
avoid Diana Maria Ilie vs Isabella MartonOct 5, 6:30 PMIsabella Marton
Bet on Fliff
70%0.05/0.95 wide—≤66cmake ≤66c · fill 80%
ITF-W
Cipolletti
Marina Bulbarella vs Abril PajelloOct 5, 6:30 PMAbril Pajello
Bet on Fliff
55%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Katherine Hui vs Briley RhodenOct 5, 6:30 PMKatherine Hui
Bet on Fliff
55%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Bella Bergqvist Larsson vs Anna FreyOct 5, 6:30 PMBella Bergqvist Larsson
Bet on Fliff
53%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Nalah Kaler vs McKenna SchaefbauerOct 5, 6:30 PM
Bet on Fliff
not rated0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
avoid Astra Sharma vs Lavinia TanasieOct 5, 7:30 PMAstra Sharma
Bet on Fliff
63%0.05/0.95 wide—≤61cmake ≤61c · fill 80%
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Amaliia Elizarova vs Misa MalkinOct 5, 7:30 PMMisa Malkin
Bet on Fliff
69%0.05/0.98 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Kate Sharabura vs Mia SlamaOct 5, 7:30 PMMia Slama
Bet on Fliff
60%0.05/0.95 wide——listed only
ITF-W
Lexington SC
Jensen Diianni vs Diae El JardiOct 5, 7:30 PMJensen Diianni
Bet on Fliff
51%0.02/0.95 wide——listed only

One row per match, Kalshi-priced or not. Highlighted rows (green edge) are the ones the model's betting layer would actually stake: the price edge passed every gate, including a second model that scores how likely the edge is REAL (a big edge against a thin-data player usually isn't). All other rows are dimmed — the prediction stands, but the model would not bet it; a dimmed row can show high confidence AND a large edge and still be a pass, because confidence measures how reliable the win probability is, not whether the market price is beatable. Best bet is the side with the most value against its own ask — often the underdog (a 20%-chance player is a great buy at a 5¢ ask). "—" means no open Kalshi market. Poly bid/ask is the same pick side on Polymarket (a second exchange) — bid/ask when a book is available, else its last trade; those markets can trade in-play and some Challenger/ITF books are thin (wide spreads, low size), so treat Poly as a second venue snapshot, not a sharp fair price.

66.1%
Tour Accuracy ↗
Out-of-sample ATP holdout
View accuracy record →
+6.1%
Settled Bet ROI ↗
19 of 32 won · quarter-Kelly
View bet breakdown →
+12.0%
Paper Agent Return ↗
$10k → $11.2k paper
View agent performance →
4,554
Audited Matches ↗
Pre-match audited settlements
View match ledger →
Market status
130matches scanned
Every active pre-match line is priced inside our fair bounds right now.
Our 4-tier edge filter rejects thin-liquidity and coin-flip lines. The board below still carries every match win probability, and the derivatives board has spreads and totals.

Where we beat the market, and where we don’t

Our predictions match or beat the prediction market in some slices, not across the board. Out of 24 cuts we grade, we hold our own in 2; the market wins the other 22. On Tennis Challenger and Tennis ITF the market is clearly the better forecaster, and the band says so. When we break hard from the market, the market is usually right. So read our number as a second opinion that sharpens close calls, not a reason to bet against the price. None of these leads is proven yet: every band still crosses zero, and we will say so until one doesn’t.

Tennis ATP: we say under 60%. Ours 0.253 vs market 0.258, edge +4.8 mB (95% band -11.9 to +21.4), n=187.
↑ betterWeek of 2026-07-13: ours 0.246, market 0.215 (n=21)Week of 2026-07-20: ours 0.261, market 0.301 (n=24)Week of 2026-07-27: ours 0.246, market 0.273 (n=43)Week of 2026-08-03: ours 0.253, market 0.238 (n=21)Week of 2026-08-10: ours 0.258, market 0.232 (n=37)Week of 2026-08-24: ours 0.261, market 0.264 (n=26)Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3Aug 10Aug 24
our modelthe market, same games
Tennis ATP: differ from market <10pp. Ours 0.229 vs market 0.233, edge +3.7 mB (95% band -2.6 to +9.9), n=266.
↑ betterWeek of 2026-07-13: ours 0.213, market 0.214 (n=16)Week of 2026-07-20: ours 0.249, market 0.277 (n=35)Week of 2026-07-27: ours 0.246, market 0.245 (n=58)Week of 2026-08-03: ours 0.240, market 0.242 (n=41)Week of 2026-08-10: ours 0.235, market 0.225 (n=51)Week of 2026-08-24: ours 0.211, market 0.224 (n=35)Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3Aug 10Aug 24
our modelthe market, same games
Every slice (24 rows, the losing ones included)
GroupSlicenOur BrierMarketEdge mB95% bandPicked winner (us / mkt)
Tennis ATPall matches3950.2310.229-1.3-11.6 to +9.058% / 60%
Tennis ATPwe say 70%+1010.1860.182-3.6-19.4 to +12.375% / 75%
Tennis ATPwe say 60-70%1070.2340.224-9.8-29.0 to +9.364% / 62%
Tennis ATPwe say under 60%1870.2530.258+4.8-11.9 to +21.445% / 51%
Tennis ATPdiffer from market <10pp2660.2290.233+3.7-2.6 to +9.957% / 59%
Tennis ATPdiffer from market 10pp+1290.2340.222-11.5-40.2 to +17.260% / 62%
Tennis Challengerall matches6000.2510.226-24.9-36.4 to -13.356% / 64%
Tennis Challengerwe say 70%+1340.2450.221-24.6-51.0 to +1.762% / 63%
Tennis Challengerwe say 60-70%1360.2630.246-16.9-43.0 to +9.253% / 60%
Tennis Challengerwe say under 60%3300.2480.220-28.2-42.7 to -13.855% / 65%
Tennis Challengerdiffer from market <10pp3010.2350.233-2.1-8.1 to +4.062% / 61%
Tennis Challengerdiffer from market 10pp+2990.2670.219-47.8-69.8 to -25.851% / 66%
Tennis WTAall matches5840.2020.196-5.8-12.7 to +1.067% / 68%
Tennis WTAwe say 70%+2210.1310.130-1.3-9.8 to +7.184% / 83%
Tennis WTAwe say 60-70%1820.2420.237-5.3-19.5 to +8.961% / 60%
Tennis WTAwe say under 60%1810.2470.236-11.9-25.5 to +1.652% / 57%
Tennis WTAdiffer from market <10pp4240.1960.193-2.5-6.7 to +1.768% / 67%
Tennis WTAdiffer from market 10pp+1600.2180.203-14.6-37.1 to +7.963% / 70%
Tennis ITFall matches2,0590.2320.180-52.2-60.2 to -44.361% / 73%
Tennis ITFwe say 70%+3280.1860.152-34.1-51.0 to -17.175% / 76%
Tennis ITFwe say 60-70%6810.2340.178-55.7-69.7 to -41.763% / 74%
Tennis ITFwe say under 60%1,0500.2450.189-55.6-67.1 to -44.156% / 71%
Tennis ITFdiffer from market <10pp5350.2230.218-4.6-9.1 to -0.163% / 63%
Tennis ITFdiffer from market 10pp+1,5240.2350.166-68.9-79.4 to -58.460% / 76%

Market = Kalshi price 6 hours before the scheduled start; Brier score, lower is better; edge = market Brier minus ours, in thousandths. "We say" = our favourite's probability; "differ" = gap between us and that T-6h price. Level or ahead = edge ≥ −1, n ≥ 30, and a band not wholly below zero; a rule fixed before this page was built. Tennis is graded on forecasts logged before each match. ITF prices exist only 2026-08-10 to 2026-09-08 (the ITF quote harvest stopped). Raw JSON.

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