CWS SPAnthony Kay-2
CLE SPGavin Williams+14
Our win probability next to the Kalshi price, every game today and tomorrow · built Oct 4, 9:38 PM ET · schedule as of Oct 4, 9:10 PM ET
"Kalshi" is the latest observed bid/ask mid, de-vigged across the two legs where both are quoted, and links to the market; the scored benchmark above is the T-6h mid, not this. Run line is the Kalshi 1.5-run spread on the side nearer even money; Total and F5 total are the strikes priced nearest 50¢ (the market's own line); F5 spread is the first-five-innings spread strike nearest 50¢ (Kalshi lists 1.5 and 2.5 only). SP is the probable starter listed now (ESPN; MLB's Stats API for earlier seasons); the number beside him is his adjustment in Elo points. Records are this regular season's.
| # | Game | Our pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CWS @ CLE · Mon | CLE | 14 |
| 2 | NYY @ TB · Mon | NYY | 2 |
Confidence is |p − 50%| × 2, 0-100. Baseball is close to a coin flip: a 60% pick scores 20.
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIL | 1582 |
| 2 | LAD | 1567 |
| 3 | NYY | 1551 |
| 4 | SD | 1550 |
| 5 | TB | 1549 |
| 6 | ATL | 1533 |
| 7 | PHI | 1532 |
| 8 | BOS | 1526 |
| 9 | CHC | 1524 |
| 10 | AZ | 1518 |
| 11 | CLE | 1509 |
| 12 | TOR | 1509 |
| 13 | PIT | 1505 |
| 14 | HOU | 1503 |
| 15 | CWS | 1500 |
| 16 | BAL | 1498 |
| 17 | MIA | 1496 |
| 18 | TEX | 1494 |
| 19 | NYM | 1493 |
| 20 | DET | 1486 |
| 21 | CIN | 1486 |
| 22 | SEA | 1485 |
| 23 | MIN | 1475 |
| 24 | STL | 1475 |
| 25 | WSH | 1472 |
| 26 | KC | 1465 |
| 27 | SF | 1454 |
| 28 | ATH | 1438 |
| 29 | LAA | 1428 |
| 30 | COL | 1396 |
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