{
 "sport": "mlb",
 "track": "traffic",
 "tier": "public",
 "board": "slate",
 "claim": "Our number is a point-in-time team Elo with a starting-pitcher adjustment (the 538 construction, re-fit on 2014-2022). It has not beaten the price -- see track_record for the margin, n and band. Not an edge claim.",
 "disclaimer": "This is not an edge claim. The model on this page has not beaten the price (the margin and its band are stated above), and nothing here sizes a bet.",
 "gate": {
  "mode": "show-with-margin",
  "cleared": false,
  "model": "mlb_elo_sp_v0",
  "d_brier_mB": -0.6,
  "ci95_mB": [
   -1.9,
   0.7
  ],
  "n": 4056,
  "threshold_mB": 5.0,
  "reason": "model is 0.6 mB behind the market [-1.9, +0.7], n=4056; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
  "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:07:56.685119+00:00",
  "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75",
  "block_key": "date"
 },
 "source": {
  "schedule_asof": "2026-10-05T01:10:25.977122+00:00",
  "book_asof": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
  "book_stale_hours": 0.1,
  "book_stale": false,
  "built_utc": "2026-10-05T02:41:43.730605+00:00",
  "slate_dates_et": [
   "2026-10-04",
   "2026-10-05"
  ],
  "licence": "Schedules/pitchers: MLB Stats API (MLBAM, non-commercial terms) to late Sep 2026, ESPN public scoreboard since (queue 1091); both derived only. Prices: Kalshi public API"
 },
 "track_record": {
  "source_artifact": "artifacts/mlb_score.json",
  "computed_utc": "2026-10-04T23:07:56.686243+00:00",
  "vs_kalshi_t6h_2026": {
   "label": "mlb_elo_sp_v0",
   "n_all_games": 4075,
   "n_scored": 4075,
   "all": {
    "n": 4075,
    "n_blocks": 362,
    "powered": true,
    "market_brier_mB": 243.1,
    "model_brier_mB": 243.7,
    "d_brier_mB": -0.6,
    "ci95_mB": [
     -1.9,
     0.7
    ],
    "ci_clear": false,
    "model_acc": 0.5642,
    "market_acc": 0.5575
   },
   "competitive_0.25_0.75": {
    "n": 4056,
    "n_blocks": 362,
    "powered": true,
    "market_brier_mB": 243.7,
    "model_brier_mB": 244.3,
    "d_brier_mB": -0.6,
    "ci95_mB": [
     -1.9,
     0.7
    ],
    "ci_clear": false,
    "model_acc": 0.5626,
    "market_acc": 0.556
   },
   "lopsided": {
    "n": 0
   }
  },
  "holdout_2023_2025": {
   "n": 7420,
   "brier_mB": 243.56,
   "logloss": 0.68,
   "acc": 0.5636,
   "base_rate_home": 0.5276
  },
  "window": [
   "2025-04-16",
   "2026-09-22"
  ]
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "event_id": 849834,
   "market_key": "game_winner",
   "sides": [
    "CLE",
    "CWS"
   ],
   "p": [
    0.5701,
    0.4299
   ],
   "track": "traffic",
   "tier": "public",
   "engine_meta": {
    "engine": "mlb_elo_sp_v0",
    "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T02:41:43.730605+00:00",
    "inputs_asof": {
     "schedule": "2026-10-05T01:10:25.977122+00:00",
     "book": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00"
    }
   },
   "context": {
    "season": 2026,
    "game_type": "D",
    "first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z",
    "official_date": "2026-10-05",
    "status": "Scheduled",
    "venue": "Progressive Field",
    "home_name": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "away_name": "Chicago White Sox",
    "home_record": "85-77",
    "away_record": "84-78",
    "home_sp": "Gavin Williams",
    "away_sp": "Anthony Kay",
    "sp_adj_home_elo": 13.8,
    "sp_adj_away_elo": -1.9,
    "elo_home": 1508.9,
    "elo_away": 1499.5
   },
   "market": {
    "venue": "kalshi",
    "p_home_now": 0.595,
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbgame/kxmlbgame-26oct051700cwscle",
    "home": {
     "bid": 0.59,
     "ask": 0.6,
     "mid": 0.595,
     "ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT051700CWSCLE-CLE",
     "event_ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT051700CWSCLE",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "strike": null,
     "volume": 32938.54
    },
    "away": {
     "bid": 0.4,
     "ask": 0.41,
     "mid": 0.405,
     "ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT051700CWSCLE-CWS",
     "event_ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT051700CWSCLE",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "strike": null,
     "volume": 86214.17
    }
   },
   "derivatives": {
    "run_line": {
     "bid": 0.38,
     "ask": 0.39,
     "mid": 0.385,
     "strike": 1.5,
     "team": "CLE",
     "ticker": "KXMLBSPREAD-26OCT051700CWSCLE-CLE2",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbspread/kxmlbspread-26oct051700cwscle"
    },
    "total": {
     "bid": 0.51,
     "ask": 0.52,
     "mid": 0.515,
     "strike": 6.5,
     "team": null,
     "ticker": "KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT051700CWSCLE-7",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbtotal/kxmlbtotal-26oct051700cwscle"
    },
    "f5_side": {
     "bid": 0.33,
     "ask": 0.35,
     "mid": 0.34,
     "strike": 1.5,
     "team": "CLE",
     "ticker": "KXMLBF5SPREAD-26OCT051700CWSCLE-CLE2",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbf5spread/kxmlbf5spread-26oct051700cwscle"
    },
    "f5_total": {
     "bid": 0.48,
     "ask": 0.49,
     "mid": 0.485,
     "strike": 3.5,
     "team": null,
     "ticker": "KXMLBF5TOTAL-26OCT051700CWSCLE-4",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbf5total/kxmlbf5total-26oct051700cwscle"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "event_id": 849839,
   "market_key": "game_winner",
   "sides": [
    "TB",
    "NYY"
   ],
   "p": [
    0.4881,
    0.5119
   ],
   "track": "traffic",
   "tier": "public",
   "engine_meta": {
    "engine": "mlb_elo_sp_v0",
    "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T02:41:43.730605+00:00",
    "inputs_asof": {
     "schedule": "2026-10-05T01:10:25.977122+00:00",
     "book": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00"
    }
   },
   "context": {
    "season": 2026,
    "game_type": "D",
    "first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z",
    "official_date": "2026-10-05",
    "status": "Scheduled",
    "venue": "Tropicana Field",
    "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays",
    "away_name": "New York Yankees",
    "home_record": "98-64",
    "away_record": "93-68",
    "home_sp": "Freddy Peralta",
    "away_sp": "Cam Schlittler",
    "sp_adj_home_elo": 1.2,
    "sp_adj_away_elo": 31.5,
    "elo_home": 1548.9,
    "elo_away": 1551.0
   },
   "market": {
    "venue": "kalshi",
    "p_home_now": 0.465,
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbgame/kxmlbgame-26oct052000nyytb",
    "home": {
     "bid": 0.46,
     "ask": 0.47,
     "mid": 0.465,
     "ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT052000NYYTB-TB",
     "event_ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT052000NYYTB",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "strike": null,
     "volume": 39910.76
    },
    "away": {
     "bid": 0.53,
     "ask": 0.54,
     "mid": 0.535,
     "ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT052000NYYTB-NYY",
     "event_ticker": "KXMLBGAME-26OCT052000NYYTB",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "strike": null,
     "volume": 145220.97
    }
   },
   "derivatives": {
    "run_line": {
     "bid": 0.38,
     "ask": 0.39,
     "mid": 0.385,
     "strike": 1.5,
     "team": "NYY",
     "ticker": "KXMLBSPREAD-26OCT052000NYYTB-NYY2",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbspread/kxmlbspread-26oct052000nyytb"
    },
    "total": {
     "bid": 0.51,
     "ask": 0.52,
     "mid": 0.515,
     "strike": 6.5,
     "team": null,
     "ticker": "KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT052000NYYTB-7",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbtotal/kxmlbtotal-26oct052000nyytb"
    },
    "f5_side": {
     "bid": 0.29,
     "ask": 0.31,
     "mid": 0.3,
     "strike": 1.5,
     "team": "NYY",
     "ticker": "KXMLBF5SPREAD-26OCT052000NYYTB-NYY2",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbf5spread/kxmlbf5spread-26oct052000nyytb"
    },
    "f5_total": {
     "bid": 0.45,
     "ask": 0.46,
     "mid": 0.455,
     "strike": 3.5,
     "team": null,
     "ticker": "KXMLBF5TOTAL-26OCT052000NYYTB-4",
     "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbf5total/kxmlbf5total-26oct052000nyytb"
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "pickem": [
  {
   "event_id": 849834,
   "first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z",
   "game": "CWS @ CLE \u00b7 Mon",
   "elo_pick": "CLE",
   "elo_confidence": 0.14,
   "market_pick": "CLE",
   "agree": true,
   "confidence_rank": 1
  },
  {
   "event_id": 849839,
   "first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z",
   "game": "NYY @ TB \u00b7 Mon",
   "elo_pick": "NYY",
   "elo_confidence": 0.024,
   "market_pick": "NYY",
   "agree": true,
   "confidence_rank": 2
  }
 ],
 "ratings": [
  {
   "team": "MIL",
   "elo": 1582.3
  },
  {
   "team": "LAD",
   "elo": 1567.1
  },
  {
   "team": "NYY",
   "elo": 1551.0
  },
  {
   "team": "SD",
   "elo": 1550.1
  },
  {
   "team": "TB",
   "elo": 1548.9
  },
  {
   "team": "ATL",
   "elo": 1533.2
  },
  {
   "team": "PHI",
   "elo": 1532.0
  },
  {
   "team": "BOS",
   "elo": 1525.9
  },
  {
   "team": "CHC",
   "elo": 1524.5
  },
  {
   "team": "AZ",
   "elo": 1518.2
  },
  {
   "team": "CLE",
   "elo": 1508.9
  },
  {
   "team": "TOR",
   "elo": 1508.7
  },
  {
   "team": "PIT",
   "elo": 1505.4
  },
  {
   "team": "HOU",
   "elo": 1502.6
  },
  {
   "team": "CWS",
   "elo": 1499.5
  },
  {
   "team": "BAL",
   "elo": 1498.0
  },
  {
   "team": "MIA",
   "elo": 1496.2
  },
  {
   "team": "TEX",
   "elo": 1493.9
  },
  {
   "team": "NYM",
   "elo": 1492.8
  },
  {
   "team": "DET",
   "elo": 1486.1
  },
  {
   "team": "CIN",
   "elo": 1485.7
  },
  {
   "team": "SEA",
   "elo": 1484.7
  },
  {
   "team": "MIN",
   "elo": 1475.4
  },
  {
   "team": "STL",
   "elo": 1475.1
  },
  {
   "team": "WSH",
   "elo": 1472.3
  },
  {
   "team": "KC",
   "elo": 1465.4
  },
  {
   "team": "SF",
   "elo": 1454.0
  },
  {
   "team": "ATH",
   "elo": 1437.9
  },
  {
   "team": "LAA",
   "elo": 1428.3
  },
  {
   "team": "COL",
   "elo": 1395.7
  }
 ],
 "missing": {
  "game_notes": "MM/LLM notes layer not built for MLB yet",
  "travel_rest": "538's travel and rest adjustments are not in v0",
  "market_t6h_live": "the board shows the book NOW; the scored benchmark is T-6h"
 }
}