Spread—
Total—
Our marginDET +2.0
Our win probability next to the Kalshi price · opening night Tue Oct 20 · built Oct 4, 9:58 PM ET · schedule as of Oct 4, 9:58 PM ET
"Kalshi" is the latest observed bid/ask mid, de-vigged across the two legs where both are quoted, and links to the market; the scored benchmark above is the T-6h mid, not this. Spread and Total are the Kalshi strikes priced nearest 50¢ (the market's own line) with that strike's price, shown once Kalshi opens those ladders. Records are this regular season's, before tip. Preseason ratings carry 40% regression to the mean.
| # | Game | Our pick | Confidence | Market pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI @ NY | NY | 50 | NY |
| 2 | OKC @ SA | SA | 18 | SA |
| 3 | BOS @ DET | DET | 16 | DET |
Confidence is how far our win % sits from a coin flip, scaled 0-100 (|p − 50%| × 2). Market pick is the side the Kalshi book favours now.
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NY | 1673 |
| 2 | SA | 1657 |
| 3 | OKC | 1644 |
| 4 | DET | 1586 |
| 5 | BOS | 1581 |
| 6 | CHA | 1580 |
| 7 | DEN | 1579 |
| 8 | CLE | 1564 |
| 9 | HOU | 1561 |
| 10 | LAL | 1560 |
| 11 | MIN | 1554 |
| 12 | ORL | 1543 |
| 13 | TOR | 1537 |
| 14 | PHI | 1533 |
| 15 | ATL | 1526 |
| 16 | PHX | 1525 |
| 17 | POR | 1522 |
| 18 | LAC | 1520 |
| 19 | MIA | 1516 |
| 20 | GS | 1463 |
| 21 | NO | 1447 |
| 22 | DAL | 1419 |
| 23 | CHI | 1409 |
| 24 | MIL | 1409 |
| 25 | IND | 1404 |
| 26 | SAC | 1399 |
| 27 | UTAH | 1379 |
| 28 | MEM | 1368 |
| 29 | BKN | 1359 |
| 30 | WSH | 1334 |
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