{
 "sport": "nba",
 "track": "traffic",
 "tier": "public",
 "board": "slate",
 "window": "opening night Tue Oct 20",
 "claim": "Our number is a point-in-time NBA Elo (FiveThirtyEight's construction, margin of victory, home court, back-to-back, preseason regression). It scores BEHIND the price -- see track_record for the margin, n and band. Not an edge claim.",
 "disclaimer": "This is not an edge claim. The model on this page scores behind the price, by the margin stated above, and nothing here sizes a bet.",
 "gate": {
  "mode": "show-with-margin",
  "cleared": false,
  "model": "nba_elo_v0",
  "d_brier_mB": -7.2,
  "ci95_mB": [
   -12.8,
   -1.6
  ],
  "n": 931,
  "threshold_mB": 5.0,
  "reason": "model is 7.2 mB behind the market [-12.8, -1.6], n=931; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
  "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:09:37.748529+00:00",
  "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75",
  "whole_board": {
   "n": 1402,
   "n_blocks": 255,
   "powered": true,
   "market_brier_mB": 200.5,
   "model_brier_mB": 208.1,
   "d_brier_mB": -7.6,
   "ci95_mB": [
    -11.8,
    -3.3
   ],
   "ci_clear": true,
   "model_acc": 0.6783,
   "market_acc": 0.6748
  }
 },
 "source": {
  "schedule_asof": "2026-10-05T01:58:34.365367+00:00",
  "book_asof": "2026-10-05T02:27:22.168923+00:00",
  "book_stale_hours": 0.2,
  "book_stale": false,
  "built_utc": "2026-10-05T02:37:39.989272+00:00",
  "licence": "Scores: ESPN public scoreboard (derived only, never republished raw); prices: Kalshi public API"
 },
 "track_record": {
  "source_artifact": "artifacts/nba_score.json",
  "computed_utc": "2026-10-04T23:07:57.799125+00:00",
  "vs_kalshi_t6h": {
   "label": "nba_elo_v0 vs kalshi T-6h",
   "n_all_games": 1402,
   "n_scored": 1402,
   "all": {
    "n": 1402,
    "n_blocks": 255,
    "powered": true,
    "market_brier_mB": 200.5,
    "model_brier_mB": 208.1,
    "d_brier_mB": -7.6,
    "ci95_mB": [
     -11.8,
     -3.3
    ],
    "ci_clear": true,
    "model_acc": 0.6783,
    "market_acc": 0.6748
   },
   "competitive_0.25_0.75": {
    "n": 931,
    "n_blocks": 244,
    "powered": true,
    "market_brier_mB": 232.9,
    "model_brier_mB": 240.2,
    "d_brier_mB": -7.2,
    "ci95_mB": [
     -12.8,
     -1.6
    ],
    "ci_clear": true,
    "model_acc": 0.6037,
    "market_acc": 0.5961
   },
   "lopsided": {
    "n": 68,
    "n_blocks": 44,
    "powered": true,
    "market_brier_mB": 30.1,
    "model_brier_mB": 46.3,
    "d_brier_mB": -16.2,
    "ci95_mB": [
     -22.9,
     -9.0
    ],
    "ci_clear": true,
    "model_acc": 0.9706,
    "market_acc": 0.9706
   }
  },
  "by_season_type": {
   "regular": {
    "n": 1229,
    "n_blocks": 164,
    "powered": true,
    "market_brier_mB": 196.1,
    "model_brier_mB": 204.8,
    "d_brier_mB": -8.8,
    "ci95_mB": [
     -13.3,
     -4.3
    ],
    "ci_clear": true,
    "model_acc": 0.69,
    "market_acc": 0.6851
   },
   "playoffs_playin": {
    "n": 173,
    "n_blocks": 91,
    "powered": true,
    "market_brier_mB": 232.2,
    "model_brier_mB": 231.3,
    "d_brier_mB": 0.9,
    "ci95_mB": [
     -11.8,
     13.7
    ],
    "ci_clear": false,
    "model_acc": 0.5954,
    "market_acc": 0.6012
   }
  },
  "holdout_calibration": {
   "seasons": [
    2025,
    2026
   ],
   "n": 2643,
   "brier": 0.2087,
   "logloss": 0.6041,
   "acc": 0.6739,
   "home_win_rate": 0.5501
  },
  "control_power": 0.75,
  "params": {
   "k": 20.0,
   "hfa": 50.0,
   "regress": 0.4,
   "b2b": 50.0,
   "playoff_mult": 1.25,
   "elo_per_point": 28.0
  }
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "event_id": "401909088",
   "market_key": "game_winner",
   "sides": [
    "DET",
    "BOS"
   ],
   "side_ids": [
    "8",
    "2"
   ],
   "p": [
    0.5784,
    0.4216
   ],
   "track": "traffic",
   "tier": "public",
   "engine_meta": {
    "engine": "nba_elo_v0",
    "params": {
     "k": 20.0,
     "hfa": 50.0,
     "regress": 0.4,
     "b2b": 50.0,
     "playoff_mult": 1.25,
     "elo_per_point": 28.0
    },
    "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T02:37:39.989272+00:00",
    "inputs_asof": {
     "schedule": "2026-10-05T01:58:34.365367+00:00",
     "book": "2026-10-05T02:27:22.168923+00:00"
    }
   },
   "context": {
    "season": 2027,
    "season_type": 2,
    "tip_utc": "2026-10-20T19:00:00+00:00",
    "tip_local": "2026-10-20 15:00 ET",
    "home_name": "Detroit Pistons",
    "away_name": "Boston Celtics",
    "home_record": "0-0",
    "away_record": "0-0",
    "home_b2b": false,
    "away_b2b": false,
    "neutral": false,
    "venue": "Little Caesars Arena",
    "notes": null,
    "elo_home": 1586.1,
    "elo_away": 1581.2,
    "margin_elo_home": 2.0
   },
   "market": {
    "venue": "kalshi",
    "p_home_now": 0.525,
    "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:27:22.168923+00:00",
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbagame/kxnbagame-26oct20bosdet",
    "home": {
     "bid": 0.52,
     "ask": 0.53,
     "mid": 0.525,
     "volume": 18701.3,
     "ticker": "KXNBAGAME-26OCT20BOSDET-DET"
    },
    "away": {
     "bid": 0.47,
     "ask": 0.48,
     "mid": 0.475,
     "volume": 24597.75,
     "ticker": "KXNBAGAME-26OCT20BOSDET-BOS"
    }
   },
   "derivatives": {},
   "gap_vs_market": 0.0534,
   "presumed_wrong": false
  },
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "event_id": "401909089",
   "market_key": "game_winner",
   "sides": [
    "NY",
    "PHI"
   ],
   "side_ids": [
    "18",
    "20"
   ],
   "p": [
    0.749,
    0.251
   ],
   "track": "traffic",
   "tier": "public",
   "engine_meta": {
    "engine": "nba_elo_v0",
    "params": {
     "k": 20.0,
     "hfa": 50.0,
     "regress": 0.4,
     "b2b": 50.0,
     "playoff_mult": 1.25,
     "elo_per_point": 28.0
    },
    "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T02:37:39.989272+00:00",
    "inputs_asof": {
     "schedule": "2026-10-05T01:58:34.365367+00:00",
     "book": "2026-10-05T02:27:22.168923+00:00"
    }
   },
   "context": {
    "season": 2027,
    "season_type": 2,
    "tip_utc": "2026-10-20T23:00:00+00:00",
    "tip_local": "2026-10-20 19:00 ET",
    "home_name": "New York Knicks",
    "away_name": "Philadelphia 76ers",
    "home_record": "0-0",
    "away_record": "0-0",
    "home_b2b": false,
    "away_b2b": false,
    "neutral": false,
    "venue": "Madison Square Garden",
    "notes": null,
    "elo_home": 1673.4,
    "elo_away": 1533.4,
    "margin_elo_home": 6.8
   },
   "market": {
    "venue": "kalshi",
    "p_home_now": 0.63,
    "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:27:22.168923+00:00",
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbagame/kxnbagame-26oct20phinyk",
    "home": {
     "bid": 0.63,
     "ask": 0.64,
     "mid": 0.635,
     "volume": 19244.95,
     "ticker": "KXNBAGAME-26OCT20PHINYK-NYK"
    },
    "away": {
     "bid": 0.37,
     "ask": 0.38,
     "mid": 0.375,
     "volume": 52163.68,
     "ticker": "KXNBAGAME-26OCT20PHINYK-PHI"
    }
   },
   "derivatives": {},
   "gap_vs_market": 0.119,
   "presumed_wrong": false
  },
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "event_id": "401909090",
   "market_key": "game_winner",
   "sides": [
    "SA",
    "OKC"
   ],
   "side_ids": [
    "24",
    "25"
   ],
   "p": [
    0.5894,
    0.4106
   ],
   "track": "traffic",
   "tier": "public",
   "engine_meta": {
    "engine": "nba_elo_v0",
    "params": {
     "k": 20.0,
     "hfa": 50.0,
     "regress": 0.4,
     "b2b": 50.0,
     "playoff_mult": 1.25,
     "elo_per_point": 28.0
    },
    "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T02:37:39.989272+00:00",
    "inputs_asof": {
     "schedule": "2026-10-05T01:58:34.365367+00:00",
     "book": "2026-10-05T02:27:22.168923+00:00"
    }
   },
   "context": {
    "season": 2027,
    "season_type": 2,
    "tip_utc": "2026-10-21T01:30:00+00:00",
    "tip_local": "2026-10-20 21:30 ET",
    "home_name": "San Antonio Spurs",
    "away_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder",
    "home_record": "0-0",
    "away_record": "0-0",
    "home_b2b": false,
    "away_b2b": false,
    "neutral": false,
    "venue": "Frost Bank Center",
    "notes": null,
    "elo_home": 1656.7,
    "elo_away": 1644.0,
    "margin_elo_home": 2.2
   },
   "market": {
    "venue": "kalshi",
    "p_home_now": 0.5525,
    "observed_at": "2026-10-05T02:27:22.168923+00:00",
    "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbagame/kxnbagame-26oct20okcsas",
    "home": {
     "bid": 0.54,
     "ask": 0.56,
     "mid": 0.55,
     "volume": 12556.65,
     "ticker": "KXNBAGAME-26OCT20OKCSAS-SAS"
    },
    "away": {
     "bid": 0.44,
     "ask": 0.45,
     "mid": 0.445,
     "volume": 5856.73,
     "ticker": "KXNBAGAME-26OCT20OKCSAS-OKC"
    }
   },
   "derivatives": {},
   "gap_vs_market": 0.0369,
   "presumed_wrong": false
  }
 ],
 "pickem": [
  {
   "event_id": "401909089",
   "tip_utc": "2026-10-20T23:00:00+00:00",
   "game": "PHI @ NY",
   "elo_pick": "NY",
   "elo_confidence": 0.498,
   "market_pick": "NY",
   "agree": true,
   "confidence_rank": 1
  },
  {
   "event_id": "401909090",
   "tip_utc": "2026-10-21T01:30:00+00:00",
   "game": "OKC @ SA",
   "elo_pick": "SA",
   "elo_confidence": 0.179,
   "market_pick": "SA",
   "agree": true,
   "confidence_rank": 2
  },
  {
   "event_id": "401909088",
   "tip_utc": "2026-10-20T19:00:00+00:00",
   "game": "BOS @ DET",
   "elo_pick": "DET",
   "elo_confidence": 0.157,
   "market_pick": "DET",
   "agree": true,
   "confidence_rank": 3
  }
 ],
 "ratings": [
  {
   "team": "NY",
   "name": "New York Knicks",
   "elo": 1673.4
  },
  {
   "team": "SA",
   "name": "San Antonio Spurs",
   "elo": 1656.7
  },
  {
   "team": "OKC",
   "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder",
   "elo": 1644.0
  },
  {
   "team": "DET",
   "name": "Detroit Pistons",
   "elo": 1586.1
  },
  {
   "team": "BOS",
   "name": "Boston Celtics",
   "elo": 1581.2
  },
  {
   "team": "CHA",
   "name": "Charlotte Hornets",
   "elo": 1579.7
  },
  {
   "team": "DEN",
   "name": "Denver Nuggets",
   "elo": 1579.1
  },
  {
   "team": "CLE",
   "name": "Cleveland Cavaliers",
   "elo": 1564.2
  },
  {
   "team": "HOU",
   "name": "Houston Rockets",
   "elo": 1560.7
  },
  {
   "team": "LAL",
   "name": "Los Angeles Lakers",
   "elo": 1560.5
  },
  {
   "team": "MIN",
   "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves",
   "elo": 1553.9
  },
  {
   "team": "ORL",
   "name": "Orlando Magic",
   "elo": 1543.3
  },
  {
   "team": "TOR",
   "name": "Toronto Raptors",
   "elo": 1537.1
  },
  {
   "team": "PHI",
   "name": "Philadelphia 76ers",
   "elo": 1533.4
  },
  {
   "team": "ATL",
   "name": "Atlanta Hawks",
   "elo": 1525.7
  },
  {
   "team": "PHX",
   "name": "Phoenix Suns",
   "elo": 1524.8
  },
  {
   "team": "POR",
   "name": "Portland Trail Blazers",
   "elo": 1521.7
  },
  {
   "team": "LAC",
   "name": "LA Clippers",
   "elo": 1519.7
  },
  {
   "team": "MIA",
   "name": "Miami Heat",
   "elo": 1515.9
  },
  {
   "team": "GS",
   "name": "Golden State Warriors",
   "elo": 1462.6
  },
  {
   "team": "NO",
   "name": "New Orleans Pelicans",
   "elo": 1446.8
  },
  {
   "team": "DAL",
   "name": "Dallas Mavericks",
   "elo": 1418.9
  },
  {
   "team": "CHI",
   "name": "Chicago Bulls",
   "elo": 1409.2
  },
  {
   "team": "MIL",
   "name": "Milwaukee Bucks",
   "elo": 1408.6
  },
  {
   "team": "IND",
   "name": "Indiana Pacers",
   "elo": 1403.9
  },
  {
   "team": "SAC",
   "name": "Sacramento Kings",
   "elo": 1398.6
  },
  {
   "team": "UTAH",
   "name": "Utah Jazz",
   "elo": 1379.1
  },
  {
   "team": "MEM",
   "name": "Memphis Grizzlies",
   "elo": 1368.3
  },
  {
   "team": "BKN",
   "name": "Brooklyn Nets",
   "elo": 1359.1
  },
  {
   "team": "WSH",
   "name": "Washington Wizards",
   "elo": 1333.9
  }
 ],
 "missing": {
  "game_notes": "the MM/LLM Game Notes layer is not built for the NBA yet",
  "our_picks": "Our Picks needs engines.football.picks.MAX_PICKS['nba']; not wired",
  "injuries": "no player availability in v0: a star resting moves an NBA line 5-10 points",
  "market_t6h_live": "the board shows the book NOW; the scored benchmark is T-6h"
 }
}