I_PREDICT_SPORT
History — live, settled, audited
455 settled predictions since 2026-07-18 · 122 open · accuracy 55.6% · Brier 0.2510 vs the market's 0.2325 six hours out (market ahead by 0.0176, n=435)
Proposed bets: 10 proposed · 10 settled · 9 won · total P&L +0.219 units on 0.513 staked (1 unit = the bankroll fraction staked on that bet)
ROI (settled bets): overall +42.7% · average per bet +65.3% · average per betting day +60.7% (return on capital staked; per-day averages weight each betting day equally)
Every number here comes from predictions timestamped BEFORE the match and settled automatically against official results — a live audit, not a backtest. Samples are still small; treat every split as provisional until n grows.
All proposed bets
| Date | Model | Match | Pick | Our prob | Market at log | Confidence | Result | Stake | P&L (units) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | a87e772 | Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci | Sebastian Baez | 63% | 48% | medium | won | 0.020 | +0.020 | +100.5% |
| 2026-07-31 | a87e772 | Alexis Galarneau vs Vit Kopriva | Vit Kopriva | 78% | 54% | medium | won | 0.040 | +0.030 | +75.5% |
| 2026-07-28 | bc4ce82 | Alejandro Tabilo vs Terence Atmane | Alejandro Tabilo | 65% | 47% | low | won | 0.014 | +0.013 | +92.6% |
| 2026-07-26 | bc4ce82 | Tallon Griekspoor vs Alejandro Tabilo | Alejandro Tabilo | 63% | 50% | medium | won | 0.009 | +0.009 | +96.5% |
| 2026-07-26 | bc4ce82 | Darwin Blanch vs Coleman Wong | Coleman Wong | 64% | 53% | low | won | 0.011 | +0.010 | +88.9% |
| 2026-07-23 | — | Yuta Shimizu vs Johannus Monday | Johannus Monday | 70% | 54% | low | won | 0.021 | +0.017 | +82.0% |
| 2026-07-21 | — | Arthur Rinderknech vs Sebastian Baez | Arthur Rinderknech | 64% | 47% | medium | lost | 0.098 | -0.101 | -103.7% |
| 2026-07-19 | — | Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Federico Cina | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 67% | 58% | low | won | 0.100 | +0.070 | +69.5% |
| 2026-07-19 | — | Jurij Rodionov vs Joel Schwaerzler | Jurij Rodionov | 77% | 54% | low | won | 0.100 | +0.082 | +82.0% |
| 2026-07-18 | — | Taro Daniel vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Taro Daniel | 74% | 58% | low | won | 0.100 | +0.070 | +69.5% |
All predictions — chronological
| Date | Model | Match | Pick | Our prob | Market at log | Confidence | Status | Result | Bet | Stake | P&L (units) | ROI |
|---|
Lower Brier is better (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip). Machine-readable: track_record.json · predictions.json · for robots.