{
 "sport": "nfl",
 "market_key": "season_odds",
 "season": 2026,
 "after_week": 4,
 "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:54:27.387451+00:00",
 "model": {
  "engine": "nfl_season_sim",
  "game_model": "point-in-time team Elo (hot, ratings update inside each simulation)",
  "rating_uncertainty_sigma": 120.0,
  "sims": 20000,
  "tiebreaks": "standings ties broken by coin flip, not the NFL's tiebreak rules",
  "backtest": {
   "fit_seasons": "2015-2019",
   "test_seasons": "2020-2025",
   "sigma": 120,
   "vs_standings_mB": -6.76,
   "vs_standings_ci95_mB": [
    -14.92,
    5.14
   ],
   "preseason_mB": -23.47,
   "preseason_ci95_mB": [
    -32.46,
    -13.35
   ],
   "week8_mB": 1.72,
   "week12_mB": 2.62,
   "calibration": [
    [
     0.019,
     0.024
    ],
    [
     0.127,
     0.123
    ],
    [
     0.303,
     0.289
    ],
    [
     0.494,
     0.512
    ],
    [
     0.689,
     0.686
    ],
    [
     0.873,
     0.873
    ],
    [
     0.982,
     0.977
    ]
   ]
  }
 },
 "label": "Early in the season it leans better than the standings, but not by a demonstrated margin. Calibrated: on 2020-2025 seasons it never saw, teams it gave about 70% made the playoffs 69% of the time, and every band was within about 2 points. No betting-market comparison exists for these numbers.",
 "teams": [
  {
   "team": "BUF",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC East",
   "record": "3-0",
   "elo": 1651.9,
   "proj_wins": 12.16,
   "p_playoffs": 0.8639,
   "p_division": 0.7218,
   "p_top_seed": 0.2964,
   "p_conference": 0.2308,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.1242
  },
  {
   "team": "JAX",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC South",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1601.8,
   "proj_wins": 10.79,
   "p_playoffs": 0.7584,
   "p_division": 0.636,
   "p_top_seed": 0.1205,
   "p_conference": 0.1299,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0672
  },
  {
   "team": "DEN",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC West",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1604.3,
   "proj_wins": 10.53,
   "p_playoffs": 0.6897,
   "p_division": 0.4007,
   "p_top_seed": 0.1108,
   "p_conference": 0.1231,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0621
  },
  {
   "team": "KC",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC West",
   "record": "3-0",
   "elo": 1559.2,
   "proj_wins": 10.51,
   "p_playoffs": 0.6817,
   "p_division": 0.3901,
   "p_top_seed": 0.1187,
   "p_conference": 0.0987,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0469
  },
  {
   "team": "BAL",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC North",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1548.9,
   "proj_wins": 9.93,
   "p_playoffs": 0.6022,
   "p_division": 0.3224,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0869,
   "p_conference": 0.0792,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0369
  },
  {
   "team": "CIN",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC North",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1525.1,
   "proj_wins": 9.84,
   "p_playoffs": 0.5906,
   "p_division": 0.3013,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0796,
   "p_conference": 0.0657,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0305
  },
  {
   "team": "NE",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC East",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1576.7,
   "proj_wins": 9.15,
   "p_playoffs": 0.5112,
   "p_division": 0.2228,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0458,
   "p_conference": 0.0776,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0404
  },
  {
   "team": "CLE",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC North",
   "record": "3-1",
   "elo": 1461.6,
   "proj_wins": 9.28,
   "p_playoffs": 0.5057,
   "p_division": 0.2213,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0479,
   "p_conference": 0.0379,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.014
  },
  {
   "team": "PIT",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC North",
   "record": "2-2",
   "elo": 1507.5,
   "proj_wins": 8.66,
   "p_playoffs": 0.4254,
   "p_division": 0.1552,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0255,
   "p_conference": 0.0402,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.018
  },
  {
   "team": "LV",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC West",
   "record": "3-0",
   "elo": 1455.0,
   "proj_wins": 8.72,
   "p_playoffs": 0.4143,
   "p_division": 0.1807,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0408,
   "p_conference": 0.0307,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0127
  },
  {
   "team": "HOU",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC South",
   "record": "0-3",
   "elo": 1533.8,
   "proj_wins": 7.93,
   "p_playoffs": 0.3619,
   "p_division": 0.1989,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0119,
   "p_conference": 0.0431,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0215
  },
  {
   "team": "IND",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC South",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1448.5,
   "proj_wins": 7.41,
   "p_playoffs": 0.2782,
   "p_division": 0.1461,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0101,
   "p_conference": 0.0209,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0088
  },
  {
   "team": "NYJ",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC East",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1375.7,
   "proj_wins": 5.66,
   "p_playoffs": 0.1087,
   "p_division": 0.0323,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0028,
   "p_conference": 0.0059,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "team": "LAC",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC West",
   "record": "0-3",
   "elo": 1441.0,
   "proj_wins": 5.3,
   "p_playoffs": 0.0955,
   "p_division": 0.0285,
   "p_top_seed": 0.001,
   "p_conference": 0.0089,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0038
  },
  {
   "team": "MIA",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC East",
   "record": "0-3",
   "elo": 1394.7,
   "proj_wins": 4.97,
   "p_playoffs": 0.073,
   "p_division": 0.0232,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0008,
   "p_conference": 0.0057,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0026
  },
  {
   "team": "TEN",
   "conf": "AFC",
   "division": "AFC South",
   "record": "0-3",
   "elo": 1314.2,
   "proj_wins": 3.96,
   "p_playoffs": 0.0394,
   "p_division": 0.0191,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0004,
   "p_conference": 0.0016,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0005
  },
  {
   "team": "MIN",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC North",
   "record": "3-0",
   "elo": 1611.3,
   "proj_wins": 11.92,
   "p_playoffs": 0.8177,
   "p_division": 0.5139,
   "p_top_seed": 0.2564,
   "p_conference": 0.1669,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.088
  },
  {
   "team": "SEA",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC West",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1678.5,
   "proj_wins": 11.56,
   "p_playoffs": 0.8008,
   "p_division": 0.4523,
   "p_top_seed": 0.2029,
   "p_conference": 0.2182,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.1275
  },
  {
   "team": "SF",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC West",
   "record": "3-0",
   "elo": 1617.0,
   "proj_wins": 11.36,
   "p_playoffs": 0.7591,
   "p_division": 0.3965,
   "p_top_seed": 0.2018,
   "p_conference": 0.1577,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0818
  },
  {
   "team": "DET",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC North",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1553.6,
   "proj_wins": 10.04,
   "p_playoffs": 0.5977,
   "p_division": 0.2437,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0854,
   "p_conference": 0.079,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0391
  },
  {
   "team": "PHI",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC East",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1544.6,
   "proj_wins": 9.65,
   "p_playoffs": 0.5915,
   "p_division": 0.4652,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0627,
   "p_conference": 0.0697,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0318
  },
  {
   "team": "CHI",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC North",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1567.2,
   "proj_wins": 9.73,
   "p_playoffs": 0.5582,
   "p_division": 0.1897,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0675,
   "p_conference": 0.0752,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0369
  },
  {
   "team": "LA",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC West",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1576.8,
   "proj_wins": 8.87,
   "p_playoffs": 0.4453,
   "p_division": 0.125,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0321,
   "p_conference": 0.065,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0333
  },
  {
   "team": "NO",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC South",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1443.3,
   "proj_wins": 7.52,
   "p_playoffs": 0.3666,
   "p_division": 0.3127,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0112,
   "p_conference": 0.0211,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0084
  },
  {
   "team": "ATL",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC South",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1460.9,
   "proj_wins": 7.36,
   "p_playoffs": 0.3367,
   "p_division": 0.2811,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0119,
   "p_conference": 0.0227,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0097
  },
  {
   "team": "NYG",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC East",
   "record": "2-1",
   "elo": 1442.7,
   "proj_wins": 7.92,
   "p_playoffs": 0.3335,
   "p_division": 0.2213,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0217,
   "p_conference": 0.0242,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0097
  },
  {
   "team": "CAR",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC South",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1442.0,
   "proj_wins": 6.9,
   "p_playoffs": 0.281,
   "p_division": 0.2326,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0079,
   "p_conference": 0.0196,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0076
  },
  {
   "team": "WAS",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC East",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1452.4,
   "proj_wins": 7.38,
   "p_playoffs": 0.2727,
   "p_division": 0.1631,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0105,
   "p_conference": 0.0203,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0079
  },
  {
   "team": "DAL",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC East",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1455.1,
   "proj_wins": 7.23,
   "p_playoffs": 0.2497,
   "p_division": 0.1504,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0097,
   "p_conference": 0.0191,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0073
  },
  {
   "team": "GB",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC North",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1470.6,
   "proj_wins": 7.2,
   "p_playoffs": 0.2296,
   "p_division": 0.0527,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0101,
   "p_conference": 0.0186,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0088
  },
  {
   "team": "TB",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC South",
   "record": "0-3",
   "elo": 1429.2,
   "proj_wins": 6.11,
   "p_playoffs": 0.2081,
   "p_division": 0.1736,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0031,
   "p_conference": 0.0123,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0057
  },
  {
   "team": "ARI",
   "conf": "NFC",
   "division": "NFC West",
   "record": "1-2",
   "elo": 1414.9,
   "proj_wins": 6.44,
   "p_playoffs": 0.1517,
   "p_division": 0.0261,
   "p_top_seed": 0.0051,
   "p_conference": 0.0104,
   "p_super_bowl": 0.0041
  }
 ],
 "licence": "Schedule and results: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0). Odds: iPredictSport.",
 "disclaimer": "Season simulations, not betting advice."
}