Updated Oct 4, 2026 9:48 PM ET.
Kelly calculator · CLV grader · Odds converter · Build an agent · Platforms
Fee-aware Kelly calculator for Kalshi and Polymarket
Enter your fair probability and the price you would pay. The stake is sized on the price plus the fee, which is what makes most Kelly calculators wrong for exchanges: a 0.42c maker fee on a 60c contract is a 0.7% haircut on every edge.
Enter promo code IPREDICT on your first qualifying deposit ($9.99+) within 30 days to claim your 100% match bonus in Fliff Cash.
These run entirely in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere. The formulas are the ones our own agent starter uses, so a bot and this page cannot disagree. Ready to place an order? Check which platforms let an agent trade first. Paper before money; closing-line value before win rate. 18+/21+, state rules apply, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Regulatory Disclosures, Safe-Harbor & Terms of Use
1. Analytical & Research Use Only: iPredictSport is a quantitative research platform publishing statistical estimates for educational, informational, and analytical purposes only. iPredictSport is not an investment adviser, commodity trading advisor (CTA), registered broker-dealer, or sports wagering operator. Nothing contained on this site, in our API, or in our newsletters constitutes financial advice, investment recommendations, or sports betting advice.
2. Hypothetical & Simulated Performance (CFTC Rule 4.41): Performance figures for our autonomous paper agent and proposed bet track records are simulated, hypothetical, and based on paper audits. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading, may not reflect market liquidity, exchange slippage, or trading bans, and cannot account for psychological risk factors. No representation is made that any user will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
3. Market Risk & Capital Loss: Trading binary contracts on prediction markets (such as Kalshi or Polymarket) or placing sports wagers involves substantial financial risk, including the possible loss of 100% of staked capital. Odds and spreads fluctuate continuously. Users assume sole responsibility for their own trading decisions and bankroll sizing.
4. Responsible Gaming & Age Requirements: Fliff sweepstakes is available to legal residents aged 18+ in eligible states. Financial prediction exchanges (including Kalshi) require 18+, and commercial sportsbooks require 21+, subject to jurisdiction. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, confidential crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed 24/7 by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or visiting ncpgambling.org.
5. Affiliate & Compensation Disclosure: iPredictSport may receive affiliate commissions, referral fees, or cost-per-acquisition (CPA) compensation from links to partners (including Fliff, Kalshi, and Polymarket) at no additional cost to you. For Fliff, attribution requires entry of promo code IPREDICT or IPSLIVE in the mobile app. Fliff is a sweepstakes sports product for adults 18+ and is void where prohibited by law (18 excluded states). This commercial compensation does not alter our objective quantitative probabilities, model outputs, or editorial gates.
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