Updated Oct 4, 2026 10:22 PM ET.
Rung 6: backtest your agent against settled markets
A rule that cannot clear zero closing-line value on a few hundred settled markets is a tout, however it feels. This harness grades a rule the way we grade ourselves: enter at T-6h, compare with the close, report CLV with a bootstrap band, and refuse a verdict below n=30.
curl -O https://ipredictsport.com/agent_backtest.py
curl -O https://ipredictsport.com/sports_sample.json
python agent_backtest.py --data sports_sample.json --strategy opening --min-edge 5
python agent_backtest.py --data sports_sample.json --fair-csv my_fairs.csv # ticker,fairmarket: your fair equals the price (you cannot beat what you pay; CLV should be ~0).
opening: your fair is the opening price (bets the open was right and the market drifted; it usually was not).ticker,fair from anything (a model, an LLM, a hunch) and pass --fair-csv.
The output is n, mean CLV, a 95% band, share beating the close, Brier of your fairs, and paper PnL per contract after the maker fee.Where can an agent actually trade? Only where there is an API, and only the exchanges have one. See which platforms let an AI agent trade for you before you go live. Humans open accounts; agents trade. Never automate account creation or identity checks.
Disclosure: the Kalshi link is a partner link; we may earn a referral credit at no cost to you. 18+ on exchanges, 21+ at sportsbooks, state rules apply. Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER. Paper first; the ledger, not the win rate, is the score.
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