I_PREDICT_SPORT

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207 open games · generated Oct 4, 10:41 PM ET · de-vigged mid of Kalshi’s three-leg (home / draw / away) book, settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time

Games

Our model is behind the market. model is 4.2 mB behind the market [-5.8, -2.6], n=6495; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear. It is a Poisson goal model rated on 13 seasons of results, shown as a labelled baseline, not a forecast to act on: it has not cleared the bar against the Kalshi price, it trails the bookmaker closing line, and no row here says “take”.

Premier League 20 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Sat Oct 10 7:30 AM est.Arsenal v* Leeds United71 / 17 / 1162 / 24 / 14Arsenal62%71/72c55 · 46 (49 · 46)≤60clisted only
Sat Oct 10 10:00 AM est.Aston Villa v* Brentford36 / 26 / 3838 / 27 / 35Aston Villa38%35/37c57 · 62 (54 · 58)≤37clisted only
Sat Oct 10 10:00 AM est.Chelsea v* Bournemouth57 / 22 / 2041 / 26 / 32Chelsea41%57/58c65 · 64 (57 · 61)≤40clisted only
Sat Oct 10 10:00 AM est.Ipswich Town v* Fulham35 / 27 / 3826 / 27 / 48Fulham48%37/39c56 · 59 (51 · 55)≤46clisted only
Sat Oct 10 10:00 AM est.Sunderland v* Brighton32 / 27 / 4128 / 27 / 46Brighton46%40/41c54 · 57 (51 · 55)≤44clisted only
Sat Oct 10 12:30 PM est.Manchester United v* Tottenham57 / 22 / 2157 / 23 / 20Manchester United57%57/58c64 · 62 (59 · 58)≤55clisted only
Sun Oct 11 9:00 AM est.Crystal Palace v* Nottingham Forest36 / 28 / 3535 / 30 / 36Nottingham Forest36%34/36c48 · 55 (43 · 50)≤34clisted only
Sun Oct 11 9:00 AM est.Hull City v* Everton25 / 28 / 4734 / 31 / 35Everton35%46/48c46 · 51 (40 · 47)≤33clisted only
Sun Oct 11 11:30 AM est.Liverpool v* Manchester City37 / 25 / 3830 / 26 / 44Manchester City44%38/39c60 · 64 (56 · 59)≤42clisted only
Mon Oct 12 3:00 PM est.Coventry v* Newcastle29 / 26 / 4519 / 23 / 57Newcastle57%44/45c— · — (58 · 57)≤55clisted only
Sat Oct 17 7:30 AM est.Everton v* Chelsea34 / 25 / 4139 / 29 / 33Everton39%32/35c— · — (47 · 53)≤37clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:00 AM est.Brentford v* Liverpool34 / 26 / 4038 / 27 / 35Brentford38%33/35c— · — (55 · 59)≤37clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:00 AM est.Fulham v* Hull City58 / 23 / 1844 / 29 / 28Fulham44%55/59c— · — (45 · 51)≤42clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:00 AM est.Manchester City v* Ipswich Town81 / 12 / 783 / 12 / 5Manchester City83%78/79c— · — (72 · 49)≤82clisted only
Sat Oct 17 12:30 PM est.Newcastle v* Aston Villa46 / 25 / 2944 / 26 / 30Newcastle44%44/47c— · — (58 · 61)≤42clisted only
Sun Oct 18 9:00 AM est.Bournemouth v* Sunderland49 / 26 / 2650 / 27 / 23Bournemouth50%46/49c— · — (50 · 53)≤49clisted only
Sun Oct 18 9:00 AM est.Brighton v* Crystal Palace60 / 22 / 1957 / 24 / 19Brighton57%58/60c— · — (55 · 55)≤55clisted only
Sun Oct 18 9:00 AM est.Leeds United v* Manchester United34 / 25 / 4135 / 27 / 38Manchester United38%38/42c— · — (55 · 59)≤37clisted only
Sun Oct 18 11:30 AM est.Nottingham Forest v* Arsenal15 / 24 / 6222 / 29 / 49Arsenal49%46/60c wide— · — (41 · 46)≤47clisted only
Mon Oct 19 3:00 PM est.Tottenham v* Coventry66 / 20 / 1457 / 24 / 19Tottenham57%62/66c— · — (54 · 53)≤55clisted only

La Liga 20 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Fri Oct 9 3:00 PM est.Malaga v* Espanyol34 / 31 / 3541 / 29 / 30Malaga41%33/34c46 · 54 (44 · 50)≤39clisted only
Sat Oct 10 8:00 AM est.Vallecano v* Bilbao31 / 28 / 4140 / 30 / 30Vallecano40%30/32c50 · 56 (43 · 49)≤39clisted only
Sat Oct 10 10:15 AM est.Alaves v* Atletico22 / 25 / 5429 / 27 / 44Atletico44%53/54c52 · 55 (51 · 56)≤42clisted only
Sat Oct 10 12:30 PM est.Barcelona v* Getafe92 / 4 / 380 / 14 / 6Barcelona80%92/93c80 · 40 (64 · 45)≤79clisted only
Sat Oct 10 3:00 PM est.Real Madrid v* Villarreal72 / 15 / 1265 / 19 / 17Real Madrid65%72/73c74 · 62 (72 · 66)≤63clisted only
Sun Oct 11 8:00 AM est.Elche v* Celta Vigo34 / 30 / 3637 / 26 / 37Celta Vigo37%36/37c46 · 54 (57 · 61)≤35clisted only
Sun Oct 11 10:15 AM est.Real Sociedad v* Deportivo De La Coruna56 / 24 / 2051 / 25 / 24Real Sociedad51%55/58c54 · 54 (59 · 60)≤49clisted only
Sun Oct 11 12:30 PM est.Real Betis v* Osasuna60 / 23 / 1759 / 23 / 17Real Betis59%60/61c54 · 53 (55 · 53)≤57clisted only
Sun Oct 11 3:00 PM est.Santander v* Valencia44 / 27 / 2933 / 26 / 41Valencia41%28/30c56 · 59 (56 · 60)≤39clisted only
Mon Oct 12 3:00 PM est.Levante v* Sevilla35 / 29 / 3746 / 25 / 29Levante46%33/36c— · — (58 · 61)≤44clisted only
Fri Oct 16 3:00 PM est.Deportivo De La Coruna v* Levante46 / 27 / 2647 / 25 / 28Deportivo De La Coruna47%44/48c— · — (58 · 61)≤45clisted only
Sat Oct 17 8:00 AM est.Espanyol v* Atletico22 / 25 / 5327 / 26 / 47Atletico47%50/54c— · — (54 · 57)≤45clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:15 AM est.Villarreal v* Elche67 / 19 / 1469 / 17 / 14Villarreal69%64/68c— · — (74 · 65)≤67clisted only
Sat Oct 17 12:30 PM est.Real Betis v* Barcelona15 / 15 / 7023 / 21 / 56Barcelona56%69/70c— · — (71 · 68)≤54clisted only
Sat Oct 17 3:00 PM est.Valencia v* Bilbao26 / 27 / 4738 / 29 / 33Valencia38%23/27c— · — (44 · 51)≤37clisted only
Sun Oct 18 8:00 AM est.Osasuna v* Santander51 / 27 / 2161 / 22 / 17Osasuna61%49/52c— · — (61 · 57)≤60clisted only
Sun Oct 18 10:15 AM est.Celta Vigo v* Alaves48 / 28 / 2551 / 27 / 23Celta Vigo51%46/49c— · — (50 · 53)≤49clisted only
Sun Oct 18 12:30 PM est.Malaga v* Real Sociedad30 / 27 / 4438 / 28 / 34Malaga38%28/31c— · — (51 · 56)≤37clisted only
Sun Oct 18 3:00 PM est.Real Madrid v* Sevilla77 / 14 / 974 / 16 / 10Real Madrid74%75/79c— · — (66 · 53)≤73clisted only
Mon Oct 19 3:00 PM est.Getafe v* Vallecano34 / 30 / 3640 / 33 / 27Getafe40%33/35c— · — (30 · 39)≤38clisted only

Serie A 20 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Sat Oct 10 9:00 AM est.Genoa v* Fiorentina30 / 29 / 4133 / 29 / 38Fiorentina38%40/42c46 · 54 (46 · 52)≤36clisted only
Sat Oct 10 12:00 PM est.Inter v* Parma Calcio86 / 8 / 676 / 16 / 8Inter76%85/87c72 · 44 (64 · 49)≤74clisted only
Sat Oct 10 2:45 PM est.Napoli v* Frosinone68 / 18 / 1458 / 25 / 17Napoli58%67/68c64 · 57 (50 · 50)≤56clisted only
Sun Oct 11 6:30 AM est.Como v* Roma37 / 27 / 3631 / 28 / 41Roma41%35/37c56 · 61 (51 · 55)≤40clisted only
Sun Oct 11 9:00 AM est.Lazio v* Monza62 / 23 / 1560 / 24 / 16Lazio60%60/61c50 · 49 (50 · 49)≤58clisted only
Sun Oct 11 9:00 AM est.Lecce v* Bologna21 / 28 / 5024 / 30 / 46Bologna46%50/51c46 · 51 (39 · 45)≤44clisted only
Sun Oct 11 12:00 PM est.Sassuolo v* Milan21 / 25 / 5425 / 26 / 49Milan49%53/55c52 · 55 (55 · 57)≤47clisted only
Sun Oct 11 2:45 PM est.Cagliari v* Juventus14 / 23 / 6322 / 28 / 50Juventus50%62/64c47 · 46 (42 · 46)≤48clisted only
Mon Oct 12 12:30 PM est.Atalanta v* Venezia62 / 22 / 1663 / 23 / 14Atalanta63%62/63c— · — (50 · 47)≤61clisted only
Mon Oct 12 2:45 PM est.Torino v* Udinese41 / 29 / 3035 / 28 / 36Udinese36%29/31c— · — (48 · 54)≤35clisted only
Fri Oct 16 2:45 PM est.Frosinone v* Sassuolo40 / 27 / 3338 / 27 / 35Frosinone38%38/41c— · — (55 · 59)≤36clisted only
Sat Oct 17 9:00 AM est.Venezia v* Napoli21 / 22 / 5715 / 25 / 60Napoli60%54/58c— · — (47 · 46)≤58clisted only
Sat Oct 17 12:00 PM est.Bologna v* Inter18 / 22 / 6017 / 22 / 61Inter61%57/60c— · — (62 · 59)≤59clisted only
Sat Oct 17 2:45 PM est.Roma v* Genoa77 / 15 / 866 / 22 / 12Roma66%75/77c— · — (52 · 47)≤64clisted only
Sun Oct 18 6:30 AM est.Udinese v* Lecce53 / 26 / 2248 / 29 / 23Udinese48%49/53c— · — (42 · 46)≤47clisted only
Sun Oct 18 9:00 AM est.Fiorentina v* Como28 / 25 / 4726 / 27 / 47Como47%44/47c— · — (52 · 56)≤45clisted only
Sun Oct 18 12:00 PM est.Milan v* Atalanta53 / 25 / 2240 / 29 / 32Milan40%50/53c— · — (47 · 53)≤38clisted only
Sun Oct 18 2:45 PM est.Juventus v* Lazio60 / 24 / 1647 / 29 / 24Juventus47%57/60c— · — (41 · 47)≤45clisted only
Mon Oct 19 12:30 PM est.Monza v* Cagliari44 / 30 / 2627 / 28 / 44Cagliari44%26/27c— · — (46 · 51)≤43clisted only
Mon Oct 19 2:45 PM est.Parma Calcio v* Torino30 / 31 / 3935 / 31 / 34Parma Calcio35%29/31c— · — (40 · 47)≤34clisted only

Bundesliga 18 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Fri Oct 9 2:30 PM est.Dortmund v* Bremen71 / 17 / 1372 / 17 / 11Dortmund72%70/71c69 · 58 (69 · 58)≤70clisted only
Sat Oct 10 9:30 AM est.Augsburg v* Bayern Munich8 / 10 / 8113 / 16 / 71Bayern Munich71%80/82c84 · 66 (80 · 69)≤70clisted only
Sat Oct 10 9:30 AM est.Mainz v* Leverkusen32 / 24 / 4433 / 24 / 43Leverkusen43%42/44c66 · 68 (65 · 66)≤41clisted only
Sat Oct 10 9:30 AM est.Paderborn v* Stuttgart20 / 20 / 6127 / 23 / 50Stuttgart50%60/61c68 · 64 (67 · 67)≤49clisted only
Sat Oct 10 9:30 AM est.Hoffenheim v* Hamburg68 / 18 / 1459 / 21 / 20Hoffenheim59%67/69c68 · 60 (70 · 66)≤57clisted only
Sat Oct 10 9:30 AM est.Union Berlin v* Elversberg42 / 24 / 3445 / 25 / 29Union Berlin45%41/43c61 · 64 (58 · 61)≤44clisted only
Sat Oct 10 12:30 PM est.Leipzig v* Frankfurt63 / 19 / 1859 / 19 / 21Leipzig59%61/64c74 · 68 (77 · 72)≤58clisted only
Sun Oct 11 9:30 AM est.FC Köln v* M´gladbach48 / 23 / 3045 / 24 / 32FC Köln45%46/49c64 · 66 (67 · 68)≤43clisted only
Sun Oct 11 11:30 AM est.Freiburg v* Schalke59 / 23 / 1761 / 21 / 17Freiburg61%59/60c60 · 58 (63 · 59)≤60clisted only
Fri Oct 16 2:30 PM est.Frankfurt v* FC Köln50 / 22 / 2859 / 20 / 21Frankfurt59%48/51c— · — (75 · 70)≤57clisted only
Sat Oct 17 9:30 AM est.Hamburg v* Stuttgart24 / 23 / 5324 / 23 / 53Stuttgart53%50/54c— · — (67 · 66)≤51clisted only
Sat Oct 17 9:30 AM est.Schalke v* Mainz33 / 26 / 4130 / 26 / 44Mainz44%40/42c— · — (56 · 59)≤42clisted only
Sat Oct 17 9:30 AM est.Elversberg v* Augsburg39 / 25 / 3635 / 26 / 39Augsburg39%34/38c— · — (58 · 61)≤38clisted only
Sat Oct 17 9:30 AM est.Bremen v* Paderborn54 / 22 / 2347 / 25 / 27Bremen47%52/55c— · — (58 · 60)≤45clisted only
Sat Oct 17 9:30 AM est.Union Berlin v* Dortmund21 / 22 / 5716 / 20 / 64Dortmund64%55/58c— · — (67 · 61)≤62clisted only
Sat Oct 17 12:30 PM est.Bayern Munich v* Leipzig78 / 13 / 975 / 14 / 12Bayern Munich75%76/80c— · — (84 · 71)≤73clisted only
Sun Oct 18 9:30 AM est.Leverkusen v* Freiburg59 / 20 / 2060 / 21 / 20Leverkusen60%57/59c— · — (71 · 67)≤58clisted only
Sun Oct 18 11:30 AM est.M´gladbach v* Hoffenheim28 / 23 / 4939 / 22 / 39Hoffenheim39%48/50c— · — (74 · 74)≤37clisted only

Ligue 1 18 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Fri Oct 9 2:45 PM est.Lens v* Lyon40 / 24 / 3644 / 26 / 30Lens44%39/40c62 · 64 (55 · 59)≤43clisted only
Sat Oct 10 11:15 AM est.Lille v* Le Havre67 / 19 / 1358 / 26 / 16Lille58%67/68c58 · 51 (42 · 43)≤56clisted only
Sat Oct 10 2:45 PM est.Monaco v* Toulouse61 / 21 / 1854 / 24 / 22Monaco54%60/61c60 · 57 (59 · 59)≤52clisted only
Sat Oct 10 2:45 PM est.Lorient v* Paris FC31 / 29 / 4041 / 28 / 31Lorient41%30/31c50 · 55 (49 · 54)≤39clisted only
Sat Oct 10 2:45 PM est.PSG v* Le Mans91 / 5 / 380 / 14 / 7PSG80%91/92c80 · 42 (70 · 51)≤78clisted only
Sat Oct 10 2:45 PM est.Stade Brest 29 v* Angers49 / 25 / 2648 / 28 / 24Stade Brest 2948%48/49c54 · 57 (45 · 50)≤46clisted only
Sun Oct 11 9:00 AM est.Nice v* Strasbourg Alsace42 / 26 / 3233 / 27 / 41Strasbourg Alsace41%31/32c55 · 60 (55 · 59)≤39clisted only
Sun Oct 11 11:15 AM est.Stade Rennais v* Auxerre67 / 19 / 1453 / 24 / 22Stade Rennais53%66/68c63 · 56 (57 · 58)≤52clisted only
Sun Oct 11 2:45 PM est.Troyes v* Marseille25 / 24 / 5122 / 23 / 54Marseille54%50/52c60 · 60 (62 · 62)≤53clisted only
Fri Oct 16 2:45 PM est.Le Mans v* Toulouse30 / 28 / 4229 / 27 / 45Toulouse45%39/43c— · — (54 · 57)≤43clisted only
Sat Oct 17 11:15 AM est.Strasbourg Alsace v* PSG13 / 15 / 7128 / 24 / 48PSG48%67/71c— · — (62 · 64)≤46clisted only
Sat Oct 17 2:45 PM est.Troyes v* Lens23 / 23 / 5519 / 23 / 58Lens58%51/55c— · — (59 · 57)≤57clisted only
Sat Oct 17 2:45 PM est.Lille v* Stade Brest 2962 / 21 / 1656 / 25 / 19Lille56%59/63c— · — (50 · 51)≤54clisted only
Sun Oct 18 9:00 AM est.Angers v* Marseille30 / 25 / 4525 / 28 / 47Marseille47%43/46c— · — (48 · 52)≤45clisted only
Sun Oct 18 11:15 AM est.Lorient v* Monaco27 / 28 / 4531 / 26 / 43Monaco43%44/46c— · — (58 · 61)≤42clisted only
Sun Oct 18 11:15 AM est.Le Havre v* Auxerre40 / 28 / 3337 / 30 / 32Le Havre37%38/41c— · — (41 · 48)≤36clisted only
Sun Oct 18 11:15 AM est.Paris FC v* Stade Rennais41 / 27 / 3337 / 27 / 36Paris FC37%38/48c— · — (56 · 60)≤36clisted only
Sun Oct 18 2:45 PM est.Lyon v* Nice59 / 22 / 1958 / 24 / 18Lyon58%56/58c— · — (53 · 53)≤56clisted only

Eredivisie 9 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Fri Oct 9 2:00 PM est.Eindhoven v* Heerenveen79 / 11 / 1077 / 13 / 10Eindhoven77%77/80c— · — (82 · 68)≤76clisted only
Sat Oct 10 10:30 AM est.GA Eagles v* Sparta56 / 23 / 2157 / 22 / 21GA Eagles57%51/57c— · — (65 · 63)≤55clisted only
Sat Oct 10 12:45 PM est.Feyenoord v* Alkmaar53 / 25 / 2256 / 22 / 22Feyenoord56%51/54c— · — (67 · 65)≤54clisted only
Sat Oct 10 2:00 PM est.Sittard v* Enschede14 / 16 / 6924 / 24 / 52Enschede52%65/70c— · — (60 · 61)≤50clisted only
Sat Oct 10 3:00 PM est.Ajax v* Nijmegen74 / 15 / 1157 / 21 / 22Ajax57%71/75c— · — (70 · 67)≤55clisted only
Sun Oct 11 6:15 AM est.Utrecht v* Willem II67 / 18 / 1562 / 21 / 17Utrecht62%63/68c— · — (64 · 60)≤60clisted only
Sun Oct 11 8:30 AM est.Telstar v* Den Haag49 / 25 / 2649 / 25 / 25Telstar49%45/51c— · — (56 · 58)≤47clisted only
Sun Oct 11 8:30 AM est.Zwolle v* Cambuur50 / 23 / 2745 / 24 / 32Zwolle45%48/51c— · — (68 · 68)≤43clisted only
Sun Oct 11 10:45 AM est.Excelsior v* Groningen37 / 25 / 3841 / 26 / 33Excelsior41%34/39c— · — (58 · 61)≤40clisted only

MLS 46 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Tue Oct 6 8:30 PM est.Chicago Fire v* Vancouver35 / 24 / 4031 / 24 / 45Vancouver45%40/41c66 · 66 (65 · 67)≤44clisted only
Sat Oct 10 1:00 PM est.Toronto v* Montreal50 / 24 / 2650 / 25 / 25Toronto50%49/50c62 · 63 (56 · 58)≤48clisted only
Sat Oct 10 2:30 PM est.Chicago Fire v* New York City55 / 23 / 2243 / 26 / 31Chicago Fire43%51/55c63 · 62 (58 · 61)≤42clisted only
Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM est.Atlanta v* Cincinnati41 / 25 / 3439 / 24 / 38Atlanta39%40/42c68 · 69 (69 · 70)≤37clisted only
Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM est.Charlotte v* Dallas43 / 25 / 3246 / 25 / 29Charlotte46%42/44c62 · 65 (61 · 63)≤44clisted only
Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM est.Miami v* DC United74 / 15 / 1273 / 15 / 12Miami73%73/74c76 · 64 (80 · 68)≤72clisted only
Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM est.New England v* Seattle52 / 23 / 2641 / 27 / 32New England41%51/52c62 · 64 (52 · 57)≤39clisted only
Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM est.New York RB v* San Diego FC36 / 24 / 4037 / 25 / 38San Diego FC38%39/41c68 · 69 (60 · 63)≤36clisted only
Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM est.Orlando v* Columbus46 / 23 / 3045 / 23 / 32Orlando45%46/47c68 · 67 (72 · 72)≤43clisted only
Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM est.Philadelphia v* Salt Lake68 / 17 / 1461 / 21 / 18Philadelphia61%68/69c69 · 61 (66 · 61)≤60clisted only
Sat Oct 10 8:30 PM est.Austin v* Nashville22 / 24 / 5324 / 27 / 49Nashville49%52/54c55 · 56 (50 · 53)≤47clisted only
Sat Oct 10 8:30 PM est.Minnesota v* Houston46 / 26 / 2843 / 28 / 30Minnesota43%46/47c57 · 60 (50 · 55)≤41clisted only
Sat Oct 10 8:30 PM est.Kansas City v* Portland41 / 23 / 3732 / 23 / 45Portland45%36/37c70 · 70 (72 · 72)≤43clisted only
Sat Oct 10 9:30 PM est.Colorado v* San Jose50 / 24 / 2641 / 25 / 34Colorado41%49/51c62 · 62 (61 · 64)≤40clisted only
Sat Oct 10 10:30 PM est.Los Angeles F v* Vancouver36 / 24 / 4037 / 27 / 36Los Angeles F37%35/39c60 · 63 (53 · 58)≤35clisted only
Sun Oct 11 7:00 PM est.Saint Louis v* Los Angeles G59 / 19 / 2254 / 23 / 23Saint Louis54%58/59c68 · 65 (66 · 65)≤53clisted only
Wed Oct 14 7:30 PM est.Cincinnati v* New England46 / 23 / 3146 / 22 / 32Cincinnati46%42/50c— · — (73 · 72)≤44clisted only
Wed Oct 14 7:30 PM est.Columbus v* Charlotte47 / 24 / 2941 / 26 / 33Columbus41%43/51c— · — (57 · 61)≤39clisted only
Wed Oct 14 7:30 PM est.DC United v* New York RB54 / 23 / 2339 / 27 / 34DC United39%50/58c— · — (54 · 58)≤38clisted only
Wed Oct 14 7:30 PM est.Miami v* New York City65 / 18 / 1655 / 21 / 24Miami55%64/65c— · — (72 · 70)≤54clisted only
Wed Oct 14 7:30 PM est.Montreal v* Atlanta44 / 25 / 3140 / 27 / 33Montreal40%40/48c— · — (54 · 58)≤38clisted only
Wed Oct 14 7:30 PM est.Toronto v* Orlando40 / 23 / 3739 / 24 / 37Toronto39%36/44c— · — (69 · 70)≤38clisted only
Wed Oct 14 8:30 PM est.Chicago Fire v* Philadelphia36 / 21 / 4237 / 24 / 39Philadelphia39%35/46c wide— · — (69 · 70)≤38clisted only
Wed Oct 14 8:30 PM est.Dallas v* Seattle59 / 22 / 1945 / 26 / 29Dallas45%53/62c— · — (56 · 59)≤43clisted only
Wed Oct 14 8:30 PM est.Nashville v* Kansas City72 / 17 / 1276 / 15 / 9Nashville76%70/73c— · — (70 · 56)≤74clisted only
Wed Oct 14 8:30 PM est.Saint Louis v* Vancouver35 / 25 / 4032 / 25 / 43Vancouver43%35/43c— · — (63 · 65)≤41clisted only
Wed Oct 14 9:30 PM est.Colorado v* Minnesota48 / 25 / 2742 / 26 / 32Colorado42%42/54c wide— · — (59 · 62)≤40clisted only
Wed Oct 14 9:30 PM est.Salt Lake v* San Jose55 / 22 / 2342 / 25 / 33Salt Lake42%49/58c— · — (63 · 65)≤40clisted only
Wed Oct 14 10:30 PM est.Los Angeles F v* Austin67 / 19 / 1560 / 24 / 17Los Angeles F60%65/71c— · — (52 · 51)≤58clisted only
Wed Oct 14 10:30 PM est.Los Angeles G v* Portland49 / 25 / 2745 / 24 / 31Los Angeles G45%45/56c wide— · — (66 · 67)≤43clisted only
Wed Oct 14 10:30 PM est.San Diego FC v* Houston51 / 24 / 2546 / 27 / 27San Diego FC46%45/54c— · — (52 · 56)≤44clisted only
Sat Oct 17 2:30 PM est.Philadelphia v* Charlotte38 / 32 / 2953 / 23 / 24Philadelphia53%19/64c wide— · — (63 · 63)≤51clisted only
Sat Oct 17 4:30 PM est.Minnesota v* Saint Louis33 / 33 / 3339 / 24 / 36Minnesota39%11/59c wide— · — (66 · 67)≤38clisted only
Sat Oct 17 7:30 PM est.Atlanta v* Miami32 / 29 / 3926 / 21 / 53Miami53%17/65c wide— · — (74 · 72)≤51clisted only
Sat Oct 17 7:30 PM est.New England v* Chicago Fire37 / 32 / 3143 / 24 / 33New England43%17/64c wide— · — (64 · 66)≤41clisted only
Sat Oct 17 7:30 PM est.New York City v* Los Angeles F33 / 34 / 3337 / 29 / 34New York City37%4/64c wide— · — (46 · 52)≤35clisted only
Sat Oct 17 7:30 PM est.New York RB v* Toronto38 / 31 / 3145 / 27 / 28New York RB45%14/65c wide— · — (53 · 57)≤43clisted only
Sat Oct 17 7:30 PM est.Orlando v* DC United40 / 32 / 2858 / 21 / 21Orlando58%21/65c wide— · — (72 · 68)≤57clisted only
Sat Oct 17 8:30 PM est.Austin v* Vancouver29 / 32 / 3922 / 24 / 54Vancouver54%23/64c wide— · — (57 · 58)≤52clisted only
Sat Oct 17 8:30 PM est.Houston v* Dallas36 / 33 / 3139 / 28 / 33Houston39%16/64c wide— · — (50 · 55)≤37clisted only
Sat Oct 17 8:30 PM est.Kansas City v* Salt Lake33 / 33 / 3434 / 24 / 42Salt Lake42%5/65c wide— · — (65 · 67)≤40clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:30 PM est.Los Angeles G v* San Diego FC34 / 33 / 3341 / 24 / 35Los Angeles G41%8/64c wide— · — (66 · 67)≤39clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:30 PM est.Portland v* Colorado37 / 33 / 3148 / 25 / 28Portland48%14/65c wide— · — (61 · 63)≤46clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:30 PM est.Seattle v* Montreal43 / 32 / 2559 / 23 / 17Seattle59%26/65c wide— · — (55 · 53)≤57clisted only
Sat Oct 17 10:30 PM est.San Jose v* Nashville31 / 33 / 3630 / 25 / 44Nashville44%13/65c wide— · — (59 · 62)≤43clisted only
Sun Oct 18 5:00 PM est.Cincinnati v* Columbus33 / 34 / 3344 / 22 / 33Cincinnati44%3/65c wide— · — (73 · 73)≤43clisted only

La Liga 2 1 game

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Mon Oct 5 2:30 PMCordoba v Tenerife51 / 27 / 2345 / 27 / 28Cordoba45%50/51c50 · 54 (51 · 55)≤43clisted only

2. Bundesliga 1 game

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Fri Oct 9 12:30 PM est.Heidenheim v* Kaiserslautern52 / 26 / 2152 / 24 / 24Heidenheim52%47/53c— · — (59 · 60)≤50clisted only

Champions League 18 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Tue Oct 13 12:45 PM est.Lens v* Sporting CP38 / 25 / 37—Lens38%37/38c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 12:45 PM est.Sabah Masazir v* Slavia Prague26 / 25 / 49—Slavia Prague49%48/50c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 3:00 PM est.Arsenal v* Lille79 / 14 / 8—Arsenal79%78/80c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 3:00 PM est.Atletico v* Manchester United44 / 25 / 31—Atletico44%43/45c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 3:00 PM est.Galatasaray v* Barcelona11 / 13 / 76—Barcelona76%76/77c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 3:00 PM est.Inter v* Club Brugge76 / 15 / 8—Inter76%75/78c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 3:00 PM est.Leipzig v* Eindhoven48 / 22 / 30—Leipzig48%47/49c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 3:00 PM est.Viking v* Bayern Munich4 / 6 / 89—Bayern Munich89%88/90c— · ——listed only
Tue Oct 13 3:00 PM est.Villarreal v* Napoli44 / 26 / 30—Villarreal44%42/44c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 12:45 PM est.LASK v* Liverpool9 / 14 / 78—Liverpool78%77/78c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 12:45 PM est.Feyenoord v* Como28 / 22 / 51—Como51%48/52c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 3:00 PM est.Aston Villa v* Fenerbahce56 / 24 / 21—Aston Villa56%53/57c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 3:00 PM est.Bodoe/Glimt v* Dortmund30 / 23 / 47—Dortmund47%45/47c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 3:00 PM est.Manchester City v* PSG41 / 23 / 36—Manchester City41%40/42c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 3:00 PM est.Real Betis v* Porto44 / 25 / 30—Real Betis44%44/45c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 3:00 PM est.Roma v* Real Madrid26 / 24 / 50—Real Madrid50%49/50c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 3:00 PM est.Shakhtar v* AEK Athens36 / 27 / 38—AEK Athens38%36/39c— · ——listed only
Wed Oct 14 3:00 PM est.Slovan Bratislava v* Stuttgart10 / 15 / 75—Stuttgart75%73/76c— · ——listed only

Europa League 18 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.Alkmaar v* Be`er Sheva75 / 15 / 9—Alkmaar75%71/75c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.NK Celje v* Omonia Nicosia40 / 27 / 33—NK Celje40%36/41c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.Lech Poznan v* Leverkusen21 / 20 / 59—Leverkusen59%56/60c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.Lyon v* Crystal Palace45 / 25 / 31—Lyon45%42/45c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.Salzburg v* Milan23 / 23 / 54—Milan54%51/54c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.Sparta Prague v* Lillestroem72 / 17 / 10—Sparta Prague72%69/72c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.Torreense v* Sunderland14 / 18 / 67—Sunderland67%66/69c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 12:45 PM est.Union Gilloise v* Real Sociedad41 / 26 / 33—Union Gilloise41%40/42c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.SL Benfica v* Celtic78 / 14 / 8—SL Benfica78%75/79c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Bournemouth v* Sturm Graz82 / 12 / 6—Bournemouth82%80/81c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Dinamo Zagreb v* Anderlecht53 / 25 / 23—Dinamo Zagreb53%50/53c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Ferencvarosi v* Plzen52 / 23 / 25—Ferencvarosi52%47/53c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Jagiellonia v* Ararat-Armenia70 / 18 / 12—Jagiellonia70%66/71c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Nijmegen v* Levski Sofia53 / 24 / 23—Nijmegen53%50/53c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Marseille v* Olympiacos45 / 26 / 29—Marseille45%43/45c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Celta Vigo v* Juventus27 / 27 / 46—Juventus46%43/48c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Stade Rennais v* OFI Crete74 / 17 / 9—Stade Rennais74%68/75c— · ——listed only
Thu Oct 15 3:00 PM est.Hoffenheim v* Besiktas50 / 23 / 27—Hoffenheim50%47/50c— · ——listed only

Nations League 18 games

Start (ET)MatchKalshi H / D / A %Ours H / D / A %PickPick %Kalshi bid/askO2.5 · BTTS %CeilingType
Mon Oct 5 12:00 PM est.Cyprus v* Latvia60 / 25 / 16—Cyprus60%59/60c44 · 46—listed only
Mon Oct 5 2:45 PM est.Bosnia and Herzegovina v* Poland32 / 27 / 40—Poland40%40/41c51 · 56—listed only
Mon Oct 5 2:45 PM est.France v* Belgium64 / 19 / 16—France64%64/65c64 · 60—listed only
Mon Oct 5 2:45 PM est.Italy v* Turkiye69 / 18 / 12—Italy69%69/70c64 · 56—listed only
Mon Oct 5 2:45 PM est.Montenegro v* Armenia64 / 22 / 15—Montenegro64%63/64c56 · 52—listed only
Mon Oct 5 2:45 PM est.Northern Ireland v* Georgia40 / 31 / 28—Northern Ireland40%40/41c36 · 44—listed only
Mon Oct 5 2:45 PM est.Romania v* Sweden20 / 23 / 56—Sweden56%56/57c60 · 58—listed only
Mon Oct 5 2:45 PM est.Ukraine v* Hungary38 / 30 / 32—Ukraine38%37/38c42 · 50—listed only
Tue Oct 6 10:00 AM est.Kazakhstan v* Faroe Islands39 / 32 / 30—Kazakhstan39%38/39c36 · 45—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Albania v* San Marino96 / 2 / 1—Albania96%96/97c84 · 27—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Belarus v* Finland24 / 28 / 47—Finland47%46/48c39 · 47—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Croatia v* Spain8 / 13 / 78—Spain78%78/79c66 · 51—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.England v* Czechia86 / 9 / 4—England86%86/87c70 · 42—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Estonia v* Iceland16 / 23 / 61—Iceland61%60/61c50 · 50—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Luxembourg v* Bulgaria46 / 28 / 26—Luxembourg46%45/46c38 · 44—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Moldova v* Slovakia11 / 19 / 69—Slovakia69%69/70c52 · 46—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Scotland v* Slovenia56 / 26 / 19—Scotland56%55/56c42 · 44—listed only
Tue Oct 6 2:45 PM est.Switzerland v* North Macedonia89 / 8 / 4—Switzerland89%88/89c69 · 32—listed only

Not financial advice. Market prices are observations, not our forecast. Home team first. v* = home side presumed from Kalshi’s listing order; est. = kickoff estimated from Kalshi’s scheduled time (both are inferences, not held fields). Champions League, Europa League, Nations League, women’s Champions League and Coppa Italia carry no model: their teams are not in one rated pool.

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