History — live, settled, audited
She does the homework. You take the credit. Every pick we publish is graded here against the market price, wins and losses, nothing deleted. When the market is better than us, this page says so first.
4554 settled predictions since 2026-07-18 · 209 open · accuracy 61.9% · Brier 0.2254 vs the market's 0.2125 six hours out (market ahead by 0.0120, n=2126)
Proposed bets: 33 proposed · 32 settled · 19 won · total P&L +0.075 units on 1.229 staked (1 unit = the bankroll fraction staked on that bet)
ROI (settled bets): overall +6.1% · average per bet +10.0% · average per betting day +16.0% (return on capital staked; per-day averages weight each betting day equally)
Every number here comes from predictions timestamped BEFORE the match and settled automatically against official results — a live audit, not a backtest. Samples are still small; treat every split as provisional until n grows.
All proposed bets
| Date | Model | Match | Pick | Our prob | Market at log | Confidence | Result | Stake | P&L (units) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 8:00 PM | d528e43 | Luciano Darderi vs Kyrian Jacquet | Luciano Darderi | 66% | 52% | medium | lost | 0.018 | -0.018 | -103.1% |
| 2026-09-27 8:00 PM | 56458ab | Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto | Matteo Arnaldi | 63% | 45% | low | won | 0.035 | +0.035 | +100.5% |
| 2026-09-25 8:00 PM | 56458ab | Jenson Brooksby vs Nikoloz Basilashvili | Jenson Brooksby | 63% | 51% | medium | lost | 0.026 | -0.027 | -103.3% |
| 2026-09-24 8:00 PM | 56458ab | Lloyd Harris vs Valentin Vacherot | Valentin Vacherot | 61% | 53% | medium | lost | 0.016 | -0.017 | -103.4% |
| 2026-08-31 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Yibing Wu vs James Duckworth | James Duckworth | 68% | 45% | medium | lost | 0.034 | -0.035 | -103.8% |
| 2026-08-30 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Valentin Vacherot vs Kamil Majchrzak | Valentin Vacherot | 64% | 50% | low | won | 0.014 | +0.012 | +88.9% |
| 2026-08-28 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Rei Sakamoto vs Aleksandar Vukic | Aleksandar Vukic | 66% | 54% | medium | lost | 0.048 | -0.050 | -104.1% |
| 2026-08-28 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Valentin Vacherot vs Aleksandar Kovacevic | Valentin Vacherot | 69% | 52% | medium | won | 0.025 | +0.020 | +82.0% |
| 2026-08-28 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Adam Walton vs Yibing Wu | Adam Walton | 64% | 50% | low | lost | 0.014 | -0.015 | -103.4% |
| 2026-08-25 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Fabian Marozsan vs Martin Damm | Fabian Marozsan | 71% | 45% | medium | won | 0.037 | +0.037 | +100.5% |
| 2026-08-24 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Tom Gentzsch vs Francesco Passaro | Francesco Passaro | 71% | 50% | low | won | 0.043 | +0.045 | +104.7% |
| 2026-08-23 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Federico Cina vs Luca Nardi | Luca Nardi | 68% | 54% | low | lost | 0.044 | -0.046 | -104.3% |
| 2026-08-23 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Luciano Darderi vs Mattia Bellucci | Luciano Darderi | 63% | 48% | medium | won | 0.033 | +0.031 | +92.6% |
| 2026-08-23 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Andre Ilagan vs Tristan Boyer | Tristan Boyer | 71% | 54% | low | lost | 0.040 | -0.042 | -103.4% |
| 2026-08-22 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Daniil Glinka vs Pedro Martinez | Pedro Martinez | 78% | 53% | medium | lost | 0.047 | -0.048 | -103.3% |
| 2026-08-22 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Nishesh Basavareddy vs Moise Kouame | Nishesh Basavareddy | 73% | 51% | low | won | 0.025 | +0.019 | +75.5% |
| 2026-08-21 8:00 PM | 30d1f6a | Marcos Giron vs Valentin Royer | Marcos Giron | 62% | 51% | medium | open | 0.012 | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 8:00 PM | 8b640f1 | Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima | Daniil Medvedev | 70% | 52% | high | lost | 0.049 | -0.050 | -103.3% |
| 2026-08-15 8:00 PM | 8b640f1 | Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli | Flavio Cobolli | 67% | 50% | medium | won | 0.045 | +0.043 | +96.5% |
| 2026-08-14 8:00 PM | 8b640f1 | Zizou Bergs vs Daniel Merida | Zizou Bergs | 72% | 47% | medium | lost | 0.045 | -0.046 | -103.6% |
| 2026-08-14 8:00 PM | 8b640f1 | Michael Zheng vs Ugo Humbert | Ugo Humbert | 66% | 51% | medium | lost | 0.031 | -0.032 | -103.4% |
| 2026-08-13 8:00 PM | 7fb8038 | Flavio Cobolli vs Miomir Kecmanovic | Flavio Cobolli | 57% | 52% | medium | won | 0.022 | +0.019 | +85.4% |
| 2026-08-07 8:00 PM | 7fb8038 | Ben Shelton vs Joao Fonseca | Ben Shelton | 64% | 53% | medium | won | 0.025 | +0.020 | +82.0% |
| 2026-07-31 8:00 PM | a87e772 | Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci | Sebastian Baez | 63% | 48% | medium | won | 0.020 | +0.020 | +100.5% |
| 2026-07-30 8:00 PM | a87e772 | Alexis Galarneau vs Vit Kopriva | Vit Kopriva | 78% | 54% | medium | won | 0.040 | +0.030 | +75.5% |
| 2026-07-27 8:00 PM | bc4ce82 | Alejandro Tabilo vs Terence Atmane | Alejandro Tabilo | 65% | 47% | low | won | 0.014 | +0.013 | +92.6% |
| 2026-07-25 8:00 PM | bc4ce82 | Tallon Griekspoor vs Alejandro Tabilo | Alejandro Tabilo | 63% | 50% | medium | won | 0.009 | +0.009 | +96.5% |
| 2026-07-25 8:00 PM | bc4ce82 | Darwin Blanch vs Coleman Wong | Coleman Wong | 64% | 53% | low | won | 0.011 | +0.010 | +88.9% |
| 2026-07-22 8:00 PM | — | Yuta Shimizu vs Johannus Monday | Johannus Monday | 70% | 54% | low | won | 0.021 | +0.017 | +82.0% |
| 2026-07-20 8:00 PM | — | Arthur Rinderknech vs Sebastian Baez | Arthur Rinderknech | 64% | 47% | medium | lost | 0.098 | -0.101 | -103.7% |
| 2026-07-18 8:00 PM | — | Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Federico Cina | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 67% | 58% | low | won | 0.100 | +0.070 | +69.5% |
| 2026-07-18 8:00 PM | — | Jurij Rodionov vs Joel Schwaerzler | Jurij Rodionov | 77% | 54% | low | won | 0.100 | +0.082 | +82.0% |
| 2026-07-17 8:00 PM | — | Taro Daniel vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Taro Daniel | 74% | 58% | low | won | 0.100 | +0.070 | +69.5% |
All predictions — chronological
| Date | Model | Match | Pick | Our prob | Market at log | Confidence | Status | Result | Bet | Stake | P&L (units) | ROI |
|---|
Lower Brier is better (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip). Machine-readable: track_record.json · predictions.json · for robots.
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