Chess Tournaments

Live · Updated Oct 4, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Our tournament probabilities next to the Kalshi price · built Oct 4, 10:37 PM ET · ratings through 2026-09-29

What the number is, and how good it is. Our number is a Monte Carlo of the whole 11-round Swiss: every player at his chess.com blitz rating as of the previous Titled Tuesday, attendance drawn from how often he has played lately (Kalshi settles a no-show as No), the rest of the field filled with typical newcomers, Dutch-style pairings by score group, draws from the rating gap (fitted scale 0.8775, draw rate 0.1, event form spread 60.0 Elo), and chess.com's tiebreak (Buchholz cut 1). Scored against the Kalshi price six hours before each Titled Tuesday started: -0.2 mB [-2.6, +2.0], n=1162 over 16 Tuesdays (positive = we beat the market). Per market: top 10 +6.2 mB (n=97); top 3 -0.2 mB (n=349); top 5 -3.8 mB (n=215); top 8 -0.2 mB (n=324); win +0.6 mB (n=177). This is not an edge claim. Our Titled Tuesday number is scored against the Kalshi price above, with its n and band, and nothing here sizes a bet.

Titled Tuesday 2 open

Titled Tuesdaychess.com · blitz Swiss

Titled Tuesday · Sep 29, 2026

11-round blitz Swiss, chess.com, ~480 titled players

#	Player	Us win	Kalshi win	Us top 8	Kalshi top 8
1	Hikaru Nakamura	17%	—	45%	—
2	Aleksei Sarana	5%	—	29%	—
3	Sina Movahed	4%	—	25%	—
4	Denis Lazavik	4%	—	24%	—
5	Parham Maghsoodloo	4%	—	24%	—
6	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	4%	—	20%	—
7	Alireza Firouzja	3%	—	20%	—
8	Ian Nepomniachtchi	3%	—	20%	—
9	Pranav Venkatesh	3%	—	21%	—
10	Maxime Vachier-Lagrave	3%	—	17%	—
11	Wesley So	3%	—	15%	—
12	Arjun Erigaisi	2%	—	19%	—

All 71 listed

13	Zhamsaran Tsydypov	2%	—	18%	—
14	Hans Niemann	2%	—	14%	—
15	Jeffery Xiong	2%	—	19%	—
16	Liem Le	2%	—	17%	—
17	Dmitry Andreikin	2%	—	16%	—
18	Haik Martirosyan	2%	—	14%	—
19	Matthias Bluebaum	2%	—	16%	—
20	Fabiano Caruana	1%	—	10%	—
21	Le Tuan Minh	1%	—	11%	—
22	Vladislav Artemiev	1%	—	10%	—
23	Andrey Esipenko	1%	—	9%	—
24	Oleksandr Bortnyk	<1%	—	12%	—
25	Maxim Matlakov	<1%	—	12%	—
26	Nikolas Theodorou	<1%	—	12%	—
27	Aravindh Chithambaram	<1%	—	10%	—
28	Vincent Keymer	<1%	—	5%	—
29	Faustino Oro	<1%	—	5%	—
30	Magnus Carlsen	<1%	—	3%	—
31	Aleksandr Usov	<1%	—	9%	—
32	Alexander Grischuk	<1%	—	8%	—
33	Christopher Woojin Yoo	<1%	—	6%	—
34	Renato Terry Lujan	<1%	—	11%	—
35	Martyn Kravtsiv	<1%	—	5%	—
36	Pranesh Munirethinam	<1%	—	6%	—
37	Frederik Svane	<1%	—	4%	—
38	Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu	<1%	—	2%	—
39	Nihal Sarin	<1%	—	2%	—
40	Dincer Tasdogen	<1%	—	6%	—
41	Artin Ashraf	<1%	—	5%	—
42	Rasmus Svane	<1%	—	5%	—
43	Jules Moussard	<1%	—	3%	—
44	Yoseph Theolifus Taher	<1%	—	3%	—
45	Tobias Koelle	<1%	—	4%	—
46	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	<1%	—	1%	—
47	Shant Sargsyan	<1%	—	2%	—
48	Jose Martinez	<1%	—	2%	—
49	Bogdan-Daniel Deac	<1%	—	2%	—
50	Benjamin Bok	<1%	—	4%	—
51	Awonder Liang	<1%	—	1%	—
52	Haowen Xue	<1%	—	<1%	—
53	Nguyen Ngoc Truong Son	<1%	—	2%	—
54	Aleksandar Indjic	<1%	—	1%	—
55	Shamsiddin Vokhidov	<1%	—	<1%	—
56	Rudik Makarian	<1%	—	2%	—
57	Javokhir Sindarov	<1%	—	<1%	—
58	Cristobal Henriquez Villagra	<1%	—	3%	—
59	Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei	<1%	—	1%	—
60	Levon Aronian	<1%	—	<1%	—
61	Dau Khuong Duy	<1%	—	1%	—
62	Bardiya Daneshvar	<1%	—	<1%	—
63	Nitzan Steinberg	<1%	—	<1%	—
64	David Anton	<1%	—	1%	—
65	Zarina Nurgaliyeva	0%	—	0%	—
66	Volen Dyulgerov	0%	—	0%	—
67	Sam Sevian	0%	—	<1%	—
68	Aleksandr Shimanov	0%	—	1%	—
69	Akshay Borgaonkar	0%	—	<1%	—
70	Sergey Sklokin	—	—	—	—
71	Artem Avanesian	—	—	—	—

Start 11:00 AM ET (median start of the last 8 Titled Tuesdays (not yet posted by chess.com)). Expected field 482.7: 345.9 named players by attendance rate + 137 occasional/new entrants. Kalshi columns are raw mids (not de-vigged: the listed names are not the whole field). Rated by us but not listed on Kalshi: Daniil Dubov 3%.

Titled Tuesdaychess.com · blitz Swiss

Titled Tuesday · Oct 6, 2026

11-round blitz Swiss, chess.com, ~480 titled players

#	Player	Us win	Kalshi win	Us top 8	Kalshi top 8
1	Hikaru Nakamura	17%	14%	45%	46%
2	Aleksei Sarana	5%	4%	29%	27%
3	Sina Movahed	4%	4%	25%	22%
4	Denis Lazavik	4%	7%	24%	36%
5	Parham Maghsoodloo	4%	4%	24%	18%
6	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	4%	4%	20%	20%
7	Alireza Firouzja	3%	7%	20%	19%
8	Ian Nepomniachtchi	3%	2%	20%	15%
9	Pranav Venkatesh	3%	2%	21%	18%
10	Maxime Vachier-Lagrave	3%	4%	17%	14%
11	Wesley So	3%	2%	15%	16%
12	Arjun Erigaisi	2%	2%	19%	23%

All 71 listed

13	Zhamsaran Tsydypov	2%	—	18%	16%
14	Hans Niemann	2%	2%	14%	12%
15	Jeffery Xiong	2%	2%	19%	18%
16	Liem Le	2%	2%	17%	11%
17	Dmitry Andreikin	2%	2%	16%	26%
18	Haik Martirosyan	2%	2%	14%	14%
19	Matthias Bluebaum	2%	—	16%	7%
20	Fabiano Caruana	1%	2%	10%	20%
21	Le Tuan Minh	1%	—	11%	13%
22	Vladislav Artemiev	1%	—	10%	15%
23	Andrey Esipenko	1%	—	9%	9%
24	Oleksandr Bortnyk	<1%	—	12%	10%
25	Maxim Matlakov	<1%	2%	12%	8%
26	Nikolas Theodorou	<1%	—	12%	9%
27	Aravindh Chithambaram	<1%	—	10%	6%
28	Vincent Keymer	<1%	2%	5%	18%
29	Faustino Oro	<1%	—	5%	6%
30	Magnus Carlsen	<1%	4%	3%	13%
31	Aleksandr Usov	<1%	—	9%	7%
32	Alexander Grischuk	<1%	—	8%	9%
33	Christopher Woojin Yoo	<1%	—	6%	10%
34	Renato Terry Lujan	<1%	—	11%	8%
35	Martyn Kravtsiv	<1%	—	5%	8%
36	Pranesh Munirethinam	<1%	—	6%	9%
37	Frederik Svane	<1%	—	4%	8%
38	Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu	<1%	—	2%	8%
39	Nihal Sarin	<1%	—	2%	8%
40	Artin Ashraf	<1%	2%	5%	6%
41	Dincer Tasdogen	<1%	—	6%	5%
42	Jules Moussard	<1%	2%	3%	8%
43	Rasmus Svane	<1%	—	5%	9%
44	Tobias Koelle	<1%	2%	4%	12%
45	Yoseph Theolifus Taher	<1%	—	3%	6%
46	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	<1%	—	1%	9%
47	Shant Sargsyan	<1%	—	2%	8%
48	Jose Martinez	<1%	—	2%	9%
49	Bogdan-Daniel Deac	<1%	—	2%	8%
50	Benjamin Bok	<1%	—	4%	6%
51	Awonder Liang	<1%	—	1%	8%
52	Haowen Xue	<1%	—	<1%	5%
53	Nguyen Ngoc Truong Son	<1%	—	2%	9%
54	Aleksandar Indjic	<1%	—	1%	5%
55	Shamsiddin Vokhidov	<1%	—	<1%	8%
56	Rudik Makarian	<1%	—	2%	7%
57	Javokhir Sindarov	<1%	—	<1%	—
58	Cristobal Henriquez Villagra	<1%	—	3%	6%
59	Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei	<1%	—	1%	10%
60	Levon Aronian	<1%	—	<1%	5%
61	Dau Khuong Duy	<1%	—	1%	5%
62	Bardiya Daneshvar	<1%	—	<1%	11%
63	Nitzan Steinberg	<1%	—	<1%	5%
64	David Anton	<1%	—	1%	6%
65	Zarina Nurgaliyeva	0%	—	0%	4%
66	Volen Dyulgerov	0%	—	0%	—
67	Sam Sevian	0%	—	<1%	8%
68	Aleksandr Shimanov	0%	—	1%	6%
69	Akshay Borgaonkar	0%	—	<1%	4%
70	Sergey Sklokin	—	—	—	9%
71	Artem Avanesian	—	—	—	7%

"Kalshi" is the latest observed bid/ask mid, linked to the market (hover for bid and ask), shown only when the spread is 10¢ or less; a wider book shows its bid–ask range instead, and a dash is a one-sided book. The scored benchmark above is the mid six hours before the start, not this. Hover a name for the chess.com account, rating and our attendance estimate.

Other chess markets 19 open · market only

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2027-01-07

top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Javokhir Sindarov	95%	—
2	Hikaru Nakamura	95%	—
3	Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa	94%	—
4	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	94%	—
5	Wesley So	92%	—
6	Vincent Keymer	89%	—
7	Wei Yi	80%	—
8	Alireza Firouzja	75%	—
9	Anish Giri	45%	—
10	Arjun Erigaisi	15%	—
11	Viswanathan Anand	5%	—
12	Le Quang Liem	5%	—

All 20 listed

13	Leinier Domínguez Pérez	5%	—
14	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	5%	—
15	Liren Ding	4%	—
16	Hans Moke Niemann	4%	—
17	Magnus Carlsen	—	—
18	Jorden Van Foreest	—	—
19	Gukesh Dommaraju	—	—
20	Fabiano Caruana	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2027-01-07

top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Magnus Carlsen	96%	—
2	Hikaru Nakamura	96%	—
3	Javokhir Sindarov	94%	—
4	Fabiano Caruana	92%	—
5	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	60%	—
6	Wesley So	40%	—
7	Vincent Keymer	15%	—
8	Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa	15%	—
9	Wei Yi	4%	—
10	Anish Giri	—	—
11	Viswanathan Anand	—	—
12	Le Quang Liem	—	—

All 20 listed

13	Leinier Domínguez Pérez	—	—
14	Liren Ding	—	—
15	Jorden Van Foreest	—	—
16	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	—	—
17	Hans Moke Niemann	—	—
18	Gukesh Dommaraju	—	—
19	Alireza Firouzja	—	—
20	Arjun Erigaisi	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2027-01-07

top 10 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in December 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Hou Yifan	96%	—
2	Lei Tingjie	96%	—
3	Anna Muzychuk	95%	—
4	Aleksandra Goryachkina	95%	—
5	Ju Wenjun	95%	—
6	Zhu Jiner	94%	—
7	Tan Zhongyi	94%	—
8	Koneru Humpy	86%	—
9	Bibisara Assaubayeva	85%	—
10	Polina Shuvalova	78%	—
11	Kateryna Lagno	22%	—
12	Divya Deshmukh	20%	—

All 20 listed

13	Carissa Yip	17%	—
14	Mariya Muzychuk	8%	—
15	Alina Kashlinskaya	6%	—
16	Nana Dzagnidze	5%	—
17	Alexandra Kosteniuk	5%	—
18	Nino Batsiashvili	4%	—
19	Vaishali Rameshbabu	—	—
20	Anastasiia Hnatyshyn	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2027-01-07

top 5 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in December 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Hou Yifan	96%	—
2	Zhu Jiner	95%	—
3	Ju Wenjun	95%	—
4	Lei Tingjie	94%	—
5	Aleksandra Goryachkina	72%	—
6	Tan Zhongyi	31%	—
7	Bibisara Assaubayeva	9%	—
8	Divya Deshmukh	8%	—
9	Kateryna Lagno	5%	—
10	Koneru Humpy	5%	—
11	Vaishali Rameshbabu	5%	—
12	Anna Muzychuk	5%	—

All 20 listed

13	Alexandra Kosteniuk	5%	—
14	Nana Dzagnidze	4%	—
15	Polina Shuvalova	—	—
16	Nino Batsiashvili	—	—
17	Mariya Muzychuk	—	—
18	Carissa Yip	—	—
19	Alina Kashlinskaya	—	—
20	Anastasiia Hnatyshyn	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-12-07

top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in November 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Vincent Keymer	96%	—
2	Javokhir Sindarov	95%	—
3	Hikaru Nakamura	95%	—
4	Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa	94%	—
5	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	94%	—
6	Wesley So	92%	—
7	Wei Yi	80%	—
8	Alireza Firouzja	75%	—
9	Anish Giri	45%	—
10	Arjun Erigaisi	22%	—
11	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	6%	—
12	Viswanathan Anand	5%	—

All 20 listed

13	Le Quang Liem	5%	—
14	Leinier Domínguez Pérez	5%	—
15	Liren Ding	4%	—
16	Hans Moke Niemann	4%	—
17	Fabiano Caruana	—	—
18	Magnus Carlsen	—	—
19	Jorden Van Foreest	—	—
20	Gukesh Dommaraju	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-12-07

top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in November 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Hikaru Nakamura	95%	—
2	Javokhir Sindarov	94%	—
3	Fabiano Caruana	92%	—
4	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	74%	—
5	Wesley So	39%	—
6	Vincent Keymer	9%	—
7	Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa	9%	—
8	Wei Yi	4%	—
9	Viswanathan Anand	—	—
10	Magnus Carlsen	—	—
11	Le Quang Liem	—	—
12	Leinier Domínguez Pérez	—	—

All 20 listed

13	Liren Ding	—	—
14	Jorden Van Foreest	—	—
15	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	—	—
16	Hans Moke Niemann	—	—
17	Gukesh Dommaraju	—	—
18	Anish Giri	—	—
19	Alireza Firouzja	—	—
20	Arjun Erigaisi	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-12-07

top 10 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in November 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Hou Yifan	96%	—
2	Lei Tingjie	96%	—
3	Anna Muzychuk	95%	—
4	Aleksandra Goryachkina	95%	—
5	Ju Wenjun	95%	—
6	Zhu Jiner	94%	—
7	Tan Zhongyi	94%	—
8	Bibisara Assaubayeva	92%	—
9	Koneru Humpy	86%	—
10	Polina Shuvalova	78%	—
11	Kateryna Lagno	22%	—
12	Carissa Yip	17%	—

All 20 listed

13	Divya Deshmukh	12%	—
14	Mariya Muzychuk	8%	—
15	Alexandra Kosteniuk	6%	—
16	Alina Kashlinskaya	6%	—
17	Nana Dzagnidze	5%	—
18	Nino Batsiashvili	4%	—
19	Vaishali Rameshbabu	—	—
20	Anastasiia Hnatyshyn	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-12-07

top 5 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in November 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Hou Yifan	96%	—
2	Ju Wenjun	95%	—
3	Lei Tingjie	95%	—
4	Zhu Jiner	93%	—
5	Aleksandra Goryachkina	69%	—
6	Tan Zhongyi	31%	—
7	Bibisara Assaubayeva	9%	—
8	Divya Deshmukh	8%	—
9	Kateryna Lagno	6%	—
10	Koneru Humpy	5%	—
11	Vaishali Rameshbabu	5%	—
12	Anna Muzychuk	5%	—

All 20 listed

13	Alexandra Kosteniuk	5%	—
14	Nana Dzagnidze	4%	—
15	Polina Shuvalova	—	—
16	Nino Batsiashvili	—	—
17	Mariya Muzychuk	—	—
18	Carissa Yip	—	—
19	Alina Kashlinskaya	—	—
20	Anastasiia Hnatyshyn	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-11-07

top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in October 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Wesley So	—	—
2	Wei Yi	—	—
3	Vincent Keymer	—	—
4	Magnus Carlsen	—	—
5	Javokhir Sindarov	—	—
6	Hikaru Nakamura	—	—
7	Fabiano Caruana	—	—
8	Alireza Firouzja	—	—
9	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	—	—
10	Anish Giri	—	—
11	Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa	—	—
12	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	—	—

All 20 listed

13	Viswanathan Anand	—	—
14	Le Quang Liem	—	—
15	Leinier Domínguez Pérez	—	—
16	Liren Ding	—	—
17	Jorden Van Foreest	—	—
18	Hans Moke Niemann	—	—
19	Gukesh Dommaraju	—	—
20	Arjun Erigaisi	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-11-07

top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in October 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Magnus Carlsen	—	—
2	Fabiano Caruana	—	—
3	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	—	—
4	Hikaru Nakamura	—	—
5	Javokhir Sindarov	—	—
6	Anish Giri	—	—
7	Vincent Keymer	—	—
8	Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa	—	—
9	Arjun Erigaisi	—	—
10	Wesley So	—	—
11	Wei Yi	—	—
12	Viswanathan Anand	—	—

All 20 listed

13	Le Quang Liem	—	—
14	Leinier Domínguez Pérez	—	—
15	Liren Ding	—	—
16	Jorden Van Foreest	—	—
17	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	—	—
18	Hans Moke Niemann	—	—
19	Gukesh Dommaraju	—	—
20	Alireza Firouzja	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-11-07

top 10 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in October 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Polina Shuvalova	—	—
2	Aleksandra Goryachkina	—	—
3	Tan Zhongyi	—	—
4	Lei Tingjie	—	—
5	Ju Wenjun	—	—
6	Hou Yifan	—	—
7	Bibisara Assaubayeva	—	—
8	Zhu Jiner	—	—
9	Anna Muzychuk	—	—
10	Koneru Humpy	—	—
11	Kateryna Lagno	—	—
12	Divya Deshmukh	—	—

All 20 listed

13	Vaishali Rameshbabu	—	—
14	Nana Dzagnidze	—	—
15	Nino Batsiashvili	—	—
16	Mariya Muzychuk	—	—
17	Carissa Yip	—	—
18	Alexandra Kosteniuk	—	—
19	Alina Kashlinskaya	—	—
20	Anastasiia Hnatyshyn	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

FIDERATINGTOPcloses 2026-11-07

top 5 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in October 2026

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Zhu Jiner	—	—
2	Lei Tingjie	—	—
3	Hou Yifan	—	—
4	Ju Wenjun	—	—
5	Tan Zhongyi	—	—
6	Aleksandra Goryachkina	—	—
7	Bibisara Assaubayeva	—	—
8	Vaishali Rameshbabu	—	—
9	Polina Shuvalova	—	—
10	Nana Dzagnidze	—	—
11	Nino Batsiashvili	—	—
12	Mariya Muzychuk	—	—

All 20 listed

13	Kateryna Lagno	—	—
14	Koneru Humpy	—	—
15	Divya Deshmukh	—	—
16	Carissa Yip	—	—
17	Anna Muzychuk	—	—
18	Alexandra Kosteniuk	—	—
19	Alina Kashlinskaya	—	—
20	Anastasiia Hnatyshyn	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

OLYMPIADcloses 2026-10-15

46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Uzbekistan	—	—
2	China	—	—
3	Iran	—	—
4	Germany	—	—
5	Spain	—	—
6	Serbia	—	—
7	Netherlands	—	—
8	India	—	—
9	France	—	—
10	Armenia	—	—
11	United States of America	—	—
12	Ukraine	—	—

All 40 listed

13	Hungary	—	—
14	Croatia	—	—
15	Azerbaijan	—	—
16	Argentina	—	—
17	Vietnam	—	—
18	Turkiye	—	—
19	Turkmenistan	—	—
20	Sweden	—	—
21	Slovenia	—	—
22	Romania	—	—
23	Poland	—	—
24	Norway	—	—
25	Mexico	—	—
26	Moldova	—	—
27	Lithuania	—	—
28	Latvia	—	—
29	Kazakhstan	—	—
30	Greece	—	—
31	Georgia	—	—
32	England	—	—
33	Egypt	—	—
34	Czech Republic	—	—
35	Colombia	—	—
36	Chile	—	—
37	Canada	—	—
38	Bulgaria	—	—
39	Brazil	—	—
40	Austria	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

OLYMPIADcloses 2026-10-15

46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Women's Tournament

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	China	—	—
2	Georgia	—	—
3	United States of America	—	—
4	Uzbekistan	—	—
5	Poland	—	—
6	Kazakhstan	—	—
7	India	—	—
8	Zimbabwe	—	—
9	Zambia	—	—
10	Yemen	—	—
11	Wales	—	—
12	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	—	—

All 192 listed

13	Vietnam	—	—
14	Venezuela	—	—
15	Vanuatu	—	—
16	Uzbekistan 3	—	—
17	Uzbekistan 2	—	—
18	Uruguay	—	—
19	Ukraine	—	—
20	Uganda	—	—
21	United Arab Emirates	—	—
22	Turkiye	—	—
23	Tunisia	—	—
24	Trinidad & Tobago	—	—
25	Chinese Taipei	—	—
26	Togo	—	—
27	Timor-Leste	—	—
28	Turkmenistan	—	—
29	Tajikistan	—	—
30	Thailand	—	—
31	Tanzania	—	—
32	Syria	—	—
33	Eswatini	—	—
34	Sweden	—	—
35	Slovakia	—	—
36	Suriname	—	—
37	Switzerland	—	—
38	Sudan	—	—
39	Sao Tome and Principe	—	—
40	South Sudan	—	—
41	Sri Lanka	—	—
42	Serbia	—	—
43	Somalia	—	—
44	San Marino	—	—
45	Slovenia	—	—
46	Sierra Leone	—	—
47	Saint Kitts and Nevis	—	—
48	Singapore	—	—
49	Seychelles	—	—
50	Senegal	—	—
51	Scotland	—	—
52	South Africa	—	—
53	Romania	—	—
54	Puerto Rico	—	—
55	Portugal	—	—
56	Papua New Guinea	—	—
57	Palau	—	—
58	Palestine	—	—
59	Philippines	—	—
60	Peru	—	—
61	Paraguay	—	—
62	Panama	—	—
63	Pakistan	—	—
64	Oman	—	—
65	New Zealand	—	—
66	Norway	—	—
67	Niger	—	—
68	Nigeria	—	—
69	Nepal	—	—
70	Netherlands	—	—
71	Nicaragua	—	—
72	Namibia	—	—
73	Myanmar	—	—
74	Mauritania	—	—
75	Mauritius	—	—
76	Mozambique	—	—
77	Montenegro	—	—
78	Monaco	—	—
79	Malta	—	—
80	Mali	—	—
81	North Macedonia	—	—
82	Mongolia	—	—
83	Mexico	—	—
84	Maldives	—	—
85	Moldova	—	—
86	Malawi	—	—
87	Malaysia	—	—
88	Morocco	—	—
89	Madagascar	—	—
90	Luxembourg	—	—
91	Lithuania	—	—
92	Liechtenstein	—	—
93	Lesotho	—	—
94	Saint Lucia	—	—
95	Liberia	—	—
96	Lebanon	—	—
97	Latvia	—	—
98	Laos	—	—
99	Saudi Arabia	—	—
100	Kosovo	—	—
101	South Korea	—	—
102	Kyrgyzstan	—	—
103	Kenya	—	—
104	Japan	—	—
105	Jordan	—	—
106	Jersey	—	—
107	Jamaica	—	—
108	British Virgin Islands	—	—
109	Italy	—	—
110	US Virgin Islands	—	—
111	Israel	—	—
112	Iceland	—	—
113	Iraq	—	—
114	Ireland	—	—
115	Iran	—	—
116	Indonesia	—	—
117	Hungary	—	—
118	Honduras	—	—
119	Hong Kong, China	—	—
120	Haiti	—	—
121	Guyana	—	—
122	Guam	—	—
123	Guinea	—	—
124	Guatemala	—	—
125	Grenada	—	—
126	Greece	—	—
127	Ghana	—	—
128	Germany	—	—
129	Equatorial Guinea	—	—
130	Gambia	—	—
131	Gabon	—	—
132	France	—	—
133	Finland	—	—
134	Fiji	—	—
135	FIDE/UNHCR Refugee Team	—	—
136	Ethiopia	—	—
137	Estonia	—	—
138	Spain	—	—
139	El Salvador	—	—
140	Eritrea	—	—
141	England	—	—
142	Egypt	—	—
143	Ecuador	—	—
144	Dominican Republic	—	—
145	Dominica	—	—
146	Djibouti	—	—
147	Denmark	—	—
148	Czech Republic	—	—
149	Cyprus	—	—
150	Curacao	—	—
151	Cuba	—	—
152	Croatia	—	—
153	Costa Rica	—	—
154	Cape Verde	—	—
155	Comoros Islands	—	—
156	Colombia	—	—
157	Democratic Republic of the Congo	—	—
158	Cameroon	—	—
159	Cote d’Ivoire	—	—
160	Chile	—	—
161	Chad	—	—
162	Cayman Islands	—	—
163	Canada	—	—
164	Cambodia	—	—
165	Burkina Faso	—	—
166	Bulgaria	—	—
167	Brunei Darussalam	—	—
168	Bahrain	—	—
169	Brazil	—	—
170	Botswana	—	—
171	Bolivia	—	—
172	Belarus	—	—
173	Bosnia and Herzegovina	—	—
174	Bhutan	—	—
175	Bermuda	—	—
176	Belgium	—	—
177	Burundi	—	—
178	Barbados	—	—
179	Bangladesh	—	—
180	Bahamas	—	—
181	Azerbaijan	—	—
182	Austria	—	—
183	Australia	—	—
184	Aruba	—	—
185	Armenia	—	—
186	Argentina	—	—
187	Antigua and Barbuda	—	—
188	Angola	—	—
189	Andorra	—	—
190	Algeria	—	—
191	Albania	—	—
192	Afghanistan	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

TOURNAMENTcloses 2026-11-27

2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Magnus Carlsen	50%	—
2	Fabiano Caruana	12%	—
3	Wesley So	6%	—
4	Alireza Firouzja	6%	—
5	Nodirbek Abdusattorov	4%	—
6	Arjun Erigaisi	4%	—
7	Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu	3%	—
8	Vaishali Rameshbabu	—	—
9	Vincent Keymer	—	—
10	Vladislav Artemiev	—	—
11	Shakhriyar Mamedyarov	—	—
12	Richard Rapport	—	—

All 24 listed

13	Maxime Vachier-Lagrave	—	—
14	Liem Le	—	—
15	Levon Aronian	—	—
16	Jorden van Foreest	—	—
17	Jan-Krzysztof Duda	—	—
18	Ian Nepomniachtchi	—	—
19	Hans Moke Niemann	—	—
20	Haik M. Martirosyan	—	—
21	Bibisara Assaubayeva	—	—
22	Abhimanyu Mishra	—	—
23	Andrew Hong	—	—
24	Anish Giri	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

TOURNAMENTcloses 2026-10-29

2026 U.S. Chess Championship chess tournament

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Fabiano Caruana	40%	41%
2	Wesley So	32%	33%
3	Hans Niemann	13%	14%
4	Levon Aronian	12%	12%
5	Sam Shankland	—	—
6	Sam Sevian	—	—
7	Ray Robson	—	—
8	Jeffery Xiong	—	—
9	Grigoriy Oparin	—	—
10	Andy Woodward	—	—
11	Abhimanyu Mishra	—	—
12	Awonder Liang	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). de-vigged across the listed field.

TOURNAMENTcloses 2026-10-29

2026 U.S. Women's Chess Championship chess tournament

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Alice Lee	34%	—
2	Carissa Yip	32%	—
3	Rachael Li	5%	—
4	Anna Sargsyan	5%	—
5	Thalia Cervantes	—	—
6	Tatev Abrahamyan	—	—
7	Rose Atwell	—	—
8	Nazi Paikidze	—	—
9	Megan Paragua	—	—
10	Jennifer Yu	—	—
11	Irina Krush	—	—
12	Anna Zatonskih	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

TOURNAMENTcloses 2027-03-22

2027 Finnish Championship League chess tournament

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	MatSK	22%	—
2	Aatos	19%	—
3	TammerSh	19%	—
4	Gambiitti	12%	—
5	HSC	8%	—
6	HSK	6%	—
7	TuTS	5%	—
8	VSS	—	—
9	VammSK	—	—
10	RaahLi	—	—
11	JyS	—	—
12	EtVaS	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). not de-vigged: the listed mids do not sum to a whole field.

WORLDCHAMPIONcloses 2028-12-30

World Chess Championship

#	Player / team	Kalshi	De-vigged
1	Javokhir Sindarov	69%	69%
2	Gukesh Dommaraju	30%	31%
3	Andrey Esipenko	—	—
4	Matthias Bluebaum	—	—
5	Anish Giri	—	—
6	Wei Yi	—	—
7	Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa	—	—
8	Hikaru Nakamura	—	—
9	Fabiano Caruana	—	—

no model for this format yet (queue 1038: Titled Tuesday only). de-vigged across the listed field.

What this board still cannot do

Beat the price. Over 16 Tuesdays the model is level with the Kalshi price (-0.2 mB, band -2.6 to +2.0): a band that straddles zero is a tie, not an edge, and the bar is 5 mB ahead with the whole band above zero.
Price the one-off events. Classical round-robins, knockouts, the Olympiad and FIDE-list markets need FIDE ratings and each event's format and start time; none is modelled yet.
Know who will play. Attendance is a base rate from recent Tuesdays, not a registration list.

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