{ "sport": "chess", "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "board": "tournaments", "claim": "Titled Tuesday only: our number is a Swiss field simulation on chess.com blitz ratings, scored against the Kalshi T-6h price -- see track_record. Not an edge claim.", "disclaimer": "This is not an edge claim. Our Titled Tuesday number is scored against the Kalshi price above, with its n and band, and nothing here sizes a bet.", "gate": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0:all", "d_brier_mB": -0.2, "ci95_mB": [ -2.6, 2.0 ], "n": 1162, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is 0.2 mB behind the market [-2.6, +2.0], n=1162; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:50.267382+00:00", "subset": "all", "kinds": { "all": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0:all", "d_brier_mB": -0.2, "ci95_mB": [ -2.6, 2.0 ], "n": 1162, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is 0.2 mB behind the market [-2.6, +2.0], n=1162; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:50.267382+00:00", "subset": "all" }, "top10": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0:top10", "d_brier_mB": 6.2, "ci95_mB": null, "n": 97, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is -6.2 mB behind the market no band, n=97; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:50.267406+00:00", "subset": "all" }, "top3": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0:top3", "d_brier_mB": -0.2, "ci95_mB": [ -3.4, 3.0 ], "n": 349, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is 0.2 mB behind the market [-3.4, +3.0], n=349; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:50.267416+00:00", "subset": "all" }, "top5": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0:top5", "d_brier_mB": -3.8, "ci95_mB": null, "n": 215, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is 3.8 mB behind the market no band, n=215; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:50.267423+00:00", "subset": "all" }, "top8": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0:top8", "d_brier_mB": -0.2, "ci95_mB": null, "n": 324, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is 0.2 mB behind the market no band, n=324; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:50.267429+00:00", "subset": "all" }, "win": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0:win", "d_brier_mB": 0.6, "ci95_mB": [ -1.9, 3.2 ], "n": 177, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is -0.6 mB behind the market [-1.9, +3.2], n=177; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:50.267438+00:00", "subset": "all" } }, "source": "scripts/chess_score.py" }, "source": { "book_asof": "2026-10-05T02:37:21.591314+00:00", "book_stale_hours": 0.0, "book_stale": false, "built_utc": "2026-10-05T02:37:46.207834+00:00", "ratings_through": "2026-09-29", "licence": "Results/ratings: chess.com Published-Data API (derived only); prices: Kalshi public API" }, "model": { "engine": "chess_tt_sim_v0", "pin": "536769ba1e6ef1fe", "s": 0.8775, "draw_d": 0.1, "tau": 60.0, "n_sims": 4000, "fitted_through": "titled-tuesday-blitz-may-12-2026-6431785", "ratings_through": "2026-09-29" }, "track_record": { "source_artifact": "artifacts/chess_score.json", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:17:48.512430+00:00", "events": [ "2026-05-19", "2026-05-26", "2026-06-02", "2026-06-09", "2026-06-16", "2026-06-23", "2026-06-30", "2026-07-07", "2026-07-14", "2026-07-21", "2026-07-28", "2026-08-04", "2026-08-11", "2026-08-18", "2026-08-25", "2026-09-01", "2026-09-08", "2026-09-15", "2026-09-22" ], "all": { "n": 1162, "n_blocks": 16, "powered": true, "market_brier_mB": 65.7, "model_brier_mB": 65.9, "d_brier_mB": -0.2, "ci95_mB": [ -2.6, 2.0 ], "ci_clear": false, "model_acc": 0.9225, "market_acc": 0.9234 }, "kinds": { "top10": { "n": 97, "n_blocks": 2, "powered": false, "market_brier_mB": 121.4, "model_brier_mB": 115.2, "d_brier_mB": 6.2, "ci95_mB": null, "ci_clear": false, "model_acc": 0.8351, "market_acc": 0.8351 }, "top3": { "n": 349, "n_blocks": 12, "powered": true, "market_brier_mB": 46.4, "model_brier_mB": 46.6, "d_brier_mB": -0.2, "ci95_mB": [ -3.4, 3.0 ], "ci_clear": false, "model_acc": 0.9484, "market_acc": 0.9484 }, "top5": { "n": 215, "n_blocks": 7, "powered": false, "market_brier_mB": 67.0, "model_brier_mB": 70.9, "d_brier_mB": -3.8, "ci95_mB": null, "ci_clear": false, "model_acc": 0.9209, "market_acc": 0.9209 }, "top8": { "n": 324, "n_blocks": 9, "powered": false, "market_brier_mB": 85.5, "model_brier_mB": 85.6, "d_brier_mB": -0.2, "ci95_mB": null, "ci_clear": false, "model_acc": 0.8981, "market_acc": 0.9012 }, "win": { "n": 177, "n_blocks": 16, "powered": true, "market_brier_mB": 35.3, "model_brier_mB": 34.8, "d_brier_mB": 0.6, "ci95_mB": [ -1.9, 3.2 ], "ci_clear": false, "model_acc": 0.9661, "market_acc": 0.9661 } }, "counts": { "not_priced_series:KXCHESSTOURNAMENT": 177, "not_priced_series:KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP": 6, "player_unmatched": 53, "unmatched_yes:win": 0, "unmatched_yes:top8": 0, "unmatched_yes:top3": 0, "unmatched_yes:top5": 0, "rows": 3279, "scored": 1162, "unscored_price_state:one-sided": 1636, "unscored_price_state:wide": 432, "unscored_price_state:priced": 49 }, "calibration_vs_realised": { "p_win": { "n": 14359, "sum_p": 18.94, "sum_y": 19, "brier_mB": 1.327 }, "p_top3": { "n": 14359, "sum_p": 56.62, "sum_y": 56, "brier_mB": 3.642 }, "p_top8": { "n": 14359, "sum_p": 150.11, "sum_y": 148, "brier_mB": 8.896 } }, "tuning": { "s": 0.8775, "draw_d": 0.1, "tau": 60.0, "fitted_through": "titled-tuesday-blitz-may-12-2026-6431785" } }, "rows": [ { "sport": "chess", "event_id": "tt-2026-09-29", "market_key": "titled_tuesday", "title": "Titled Tuesday \u00b7 Sep 29, 2026", "format": "11-round blitz Swiss, chess.com, ~480 titled players", "start_utc": "2026-09-29T15:00:00+00:00", "start_source": "median start of the last 8 Titled Tuesdays (not yet posted by chess.com)", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtitledtuesday/kxtitledtuesday-26sep29", "kalshi_events": { "win": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29", "top8": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8", "top5": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5", "top3": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3" }, "model": "chess_tt_sim_v0", "field_meta": { "pool": 2287, "named": 806, "expected_named": 345.9, "tail_slots": 98, "newcomers": 39, "newcomer_events": 10, "expected_field": 482.7 }, "devig": null, "devig_note": "not de-vigged: the listed names are not the whole field", "field": [ { "name": "Hikaru Nakamura", "username": "hikaru", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 1372.44, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-HNAM" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.94, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 150.43, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-HNAM" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.84, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 399.69, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-HNAM" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 248.04, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-HNAM" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.16975, "p_top3": 0.2855, "p_top5": 0.373, "p_top8": 0.449, "p_attend": 0.6695, "rating": 3442.0 } }, { "name": "Aleksei Sarana", "username": "mishanick", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.42, "mid": null, "last": 0.04, "volume": 237.53, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-ASAR" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 209.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-ASAR" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.79, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 6.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-ASAR" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 5.54, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-ASAR" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.046, "p_top3": 0.133, "p_top5": 0.20775, "p_top8": 0.2865, "p_attend": 0.8346, "rating": 3288.0 } }, { "name": "Sina Movahed", "username": "sina-movahed", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.1, "volume": 53.22, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-SMOV" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.79, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 806.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-SMOV" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 404.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-SMOV" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 203.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-SMOV" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.0445, "p_top3": 0.119, "p_top5": 0.18775, "p_top8": 0.25425, "p_attend": 0.7492, "rating": 3296.0 } }, { "name": "Denis Lazavik", "username": "denlaz", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.08, "volume": 2.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-DLAZ" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.6, "ask": 1.0, "mid": null, "last": 0.7, "volume": 41.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-DLAZ" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.7, "ask": 1.0, "mid": null, "last": 0.99, "volume": 158.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-DLAZ" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.7, "ask": 1.0, "mid": null, "last": 0.99, "volume": 270.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-DLAZ" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.044, "p_top3": 0.11175, "p_top5": 0.17275, "p_top8": 0.23825, "p_attend": 0.6695, "rating": 3311.0 } }, { "name": "Parham Maghsoodloo", "username": "parhamov", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.0, "volume": 0.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-PMAG" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 610.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-PMAG" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-PMAG" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-PMAG" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.03675, "p_top3": 0.103, "p_top5": 0.16575, "p_top8": 0.23625, "p_attend": 0.7492, "rating": 3269.0 } }, { "name": "Jan-Krzysztof Duda", "username": "polish_fighter3000", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 599.72, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-JDUD" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 316.72, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-JDUD" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-JDUD" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-JDUD" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.03575, "p_top3": 0.0915, "p_top5": 0.14525, "p_top8": 0.20225, "p_attend": 0.5904, "rating": 3284.0 } }, { "name": "Alireza Firouzja", "username": "firouzja2003", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.03, "volume": 350.03, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-AFIR" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 5.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-AFIR" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 5.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-AFIR" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-AFIR" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.0345, "p_top3": 0.0935, "p_top5": 0.1405, "p_top8": 0.19975, "p_attend": 0.5904, "rating": 3289.0 } }, { "name": "Ian Nepomniachtchi", "username": "lachesisq", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.5, "mid": null, "last": 0.07, "volume": 6.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-INEP" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.79, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 6.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-INEP" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-INEP" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.0, "volume": 0.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-INEP" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.03425, "p_top3": 0.0915, "p_top5": 0.1445, "p_top8": 0.20275, "p_attend": 0.5904, "rating": 3288.0 } }, { "name": "Pranav Venkatesh", "username": "vi_pranav", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.0, "volume": 0.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-PVEN" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 13.75, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-PVEN" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.0, "volume": 0.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-PVEN" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.0, "volume": 0.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-PVEN" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.03025, "p_top3": 0.088, "p_top5": 0.14225, "p_top8": 0.20775, "p_attend": 0.6695, "rating": 3267.0 } }, { "name": "Maxime Vachier-Lagrave", "username": "lyonbeast", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.0, "volume": 0.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-MVAC" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-MVAC" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.01, "volume": 3.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-MVAC" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.05, "volume": 10.41, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-MVAC" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.02775, "p_top3": 0.073, "p_top5": 0.116, "p_top8": 0.1715, "p_attend": 0.5202, "rating": 3278.0 } }, { "name": "Wesley So", "username": "gmwso", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.7, "ask": 1.0, "mid": null, "last": 0.99, "volume": 378.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESDAY-26SEP29-WSO" }, "top8": { "bid": 0.7, "ask": 1.0, "mid": null, "last": 0.99, "volume": 58.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T8-WSO" }, "top5": { "bid": 0.7, "ask": 1.0, "mid": null, "last": 0.99, "volume": 41.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T5-WSO" }, "top3": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.99, "mid": null, "last": 0.98, "volume": 15.0, "ticker": "KXTITLEDTUESTOP-26SEP29T3-WSO" } }, "ours": { "p_win": 0.026, "p_top3": 0.0695, "p_top5": 0.11275, "p_top8": 0.15175, "p_attend": 0.398, "rating": 3298.0 } }, { "name": "Arjun Erigaisi", "username": "ghandeevam2003", "kalshi": { "win": { "bid": 0.0, "ask": 0.69, "mid": null, "last": 0.0, "volume": 0.0, "ticker": 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