{
 "sport": "ufc",
 "track": "traffic",
 "tier": "public",
 "board": "fight_cards",
 "claim": "Our number is a point-in-time fighter Elo (v0). It scores BEHIND the Kalshi price -- see track_record for the margin, n and band. Not an edge claim.",
 "disclaimer": "This is not an edge claim. Our fighter rating scores behind the Kalshi price by the margin stated above, and nothing here sizes a bet.",
 "gate": {
  "mode": "show-with-margin",
  "cleared": false,
  "model": "ufc_elo_v0",
  "d_brier_mB": -16.5,
  "ci95_mB": [
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   5.7
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  "n": 100,
  "threshold_mB": 5.0,
  "reason": "model is 16.5 mB behind the market [-38.8, +5.7], n=100; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
  "written_utc": "2026-10-04T23:12:15.527818+00:00",
  "headline_all": {
   "n": 156,
   "n_blocks": 17,
   "powered": true,
   "market_brier_mB": 197.8,
   "model_brier_mB": 240.4,
   "d_brier_mB": -42.6,
   "ci95_mB": [
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    -18.7
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   "ci_clear": true,
   "model_acc": 0.6154,
   "market_acc": 0.6987
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  "control_power": null
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 "source": {
  "book_asof": "2026-10-04T02:44:43.881454+00:00",
  "book_stale_hours": 28.1,
  "book_stale": true,
  "built_utc": "2026-10-05T06:49:41.043040+00:00",
  "licence": "Results: ESPN (derived only -- ratings and records are counted by us); prices: Kalshi public API"
 },
 "track_record": {
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  "computed_utc": "2026-10-04T23:12:15.517986+00:00",
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   "n_blocks": 17,
   "powered": true,
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   "model_brier_mB": 247.7,
   "d_brier_mB": -16.5,
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   "model_acc": 0.62,
   "market_acc": 0.62
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  "validation_pre_market": {
   "window": [
    "2022-01-01",
    "2026-07-14"
   ],
   "n": 2511,
   "brier": 0.2374,
   "log_loss": 0.6673,
   "acc": 0.5878
  },
  "control_power_w": null
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 "kalshi_only": [],
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   "ufc_record": "25-11-1"
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   "fighter": "Ilia Topuria",
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  {
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   "ufc_record": "11-2-1"
  },
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   "elo": 2343.0,
   "ufc_record": "8-1"
  },
  {
   "fighter": "Khamzat Chimaev",
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  },
  {
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   "elo": 2332.0,
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  },
  {
   "fighter": "Carlos Ulberg",
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  },
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  },
  {
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  },
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   "fighter": "Ian Machado Garry",
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  },
  {
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  },
  {
   "fighter": "Michael Page",
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  },
  {
   "fighter": "Song Yadong",
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  },
  {
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  },
  {
   "fighter": "Caio Borralho",
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  },
  {
   "fighter": "Sergei Pavlovich",
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  },
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 ],
 "missing": {
  "method_props": "Kalshi has no UFC method/round series in data/series_config.json",
  "notes": "Fight Notes (MM layer) not built for UFC yet",
  "market_t6h_live": "the board shows the book NOW; the scored benchmark is T-6h"
 }
}