{ "sport": "nfl", "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "board": "slate", "claim": "Our number is rung 4 of the ladder (point-in-time Elo + opponent-adjusted EPA form + starting-QB form). It scores BEHIND the price -- see track_record for the margin, n and band. Not an edge claim.", "disclaimer": "This is not an edge claim. The model on this page scores behind the price, by the margin stated above, and nothing here sizes a bet.", "gate": { "mode": "show-with-margin", "cleared": false, "model": "nfl rung 4", "d_brier_mB": -32.1, "ci95_mB": null, "n": 25, "threshold_mB": 5.0, "reason": "model is 32.1 mB behind the market no band, n=25; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T07:28:55.075868+00:00" }, "source": { "schedule_asof": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book_asof": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "book_stale_hours": 0.1, "book_stale": false, "built_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "licence": "Data: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); prices: Kalshi public API" }, "track_record": { "rung": 4, "source_artifact": "artifacts/nfl_ladder.json", "vs_kalshi_t6h_2026": { "n": 31, "diff_mB": 11.37, "ci95_mB": null, "n_blocks": 2, "brier": 0.2371, "brier_mkt": 0.2257, "acc": 0.5161, "clear_of_zero": false, "brier_a": 0.2371, "brier_b": 0.2257 }, "vs_vegas_close_2020_2025": { "n": 1693, "diff_mB": 9.15, "ci95_mB": [ 5.92, 12.49 ], "n_blocks": 131, "brier": 0.2186, "brier_mkt": 0.2095, "acc": 0.6491, "clear_of_zero": true, "brier_a": 0.2186, "brier_b": 0.2095 }, "vs_vegas_competitive": { "n": 1319, "diff_mB": 9.19, "ci95_mB": [ 5.26, 13.07 ], "n_blocks": 131, "brier": 0.2393, "brier_mkt": 0.2301, "acc": 0.6005, "clear_of_zero": true, "brier_a": 0.2393, "brier_b": 0.2301 }, "vs_elo_alone": { "n": 1693, "diff_mB": -3.25, "ci95_mB": [ -5.87, -0.74 ], "n_blocks": 131, "brier": 0.2186, "brier_mkt": 0.2219, "acc": 0.6491, "clear_of_zero": true }, "power": { "sd_per_game_measured": 0.092, "band95_mB_one_season_285": 10.7, "band95_mB_two_seasons": 7.6, "band95_mB_at_n": { "25": 36.1, "50": 25.5, "100": 18.0, "285": 10.7, "570": 7.6, "1140": 5.3 }, "tennis_standin_sd": 0.03, "tennis_standin_band_285": 3.6 }, "computed_utc": "2026-10-04T07:28:55.379237+00:00" }, "rows": [ { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "NO", "ATL" ], "p": [ 0.5291, 0.4709 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 4, "kick_local": "2026-10-05 20:15 ET", "home_qb": "Tyler Shough", "away_qb": "Michael Penix Jr.", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "1-2", "home_rest": 8.0, "away_rest": 11.0, "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf", "stadium": "Caesars Superdome", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Monday", "div_game": true, "home_coach": "Kellen Moore", "away_coach": "Raheem Morris", "elo_home": 1443.5, "elo_away": 1461.2, "margin_elo_home": 1.2, "p_home_elo": 0.5436, "epa_diff": 0.1508, "qb_form_diff": -0.0222 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.535, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct05atlno", "home": { "bid": 0.53, "ask": 0.54, "mid": 0.535, "volume": 212744.35 }, "away": { "bid": 0.46, "ask": 0.47, "mid": 0.46499999999999997, "volume": 268030.84 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT05ATLNO", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 1.5, "mid": 0.505, "bid": 0.5, "ask": 0.51, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "NO", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct05atlno" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT05ATLNO", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 47.5, "mid": 0.505, "bid": 0.5, "ask": 0.51, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct05atlno" }, "first_half": { "event_ticker": "KXNFL1H-26OCT05ATLNO", "series": "KXNFL1H", "legs": { "TIE": 0.085, "NO": 0.485, "ATL": 0.415 }, "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfl1h/kxnfl1h-26oct05atlno" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 1.5, "total_line": 47.5, "home_moneyline": -130.0, "away_moneyline": 110.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Bijan Robinson is running straight at a defense missing its middle, and that collision likely decides this one. Atlanta arrives indoors off a 35-14 rout at Green Bay on Sept. 24 built on 27 straight points and 194 yards rushing. New Orleans blew a 27-16 lead in a 35-27 home loss to Las Vegas, with both teams on extra rest for this NFC South rematch.\n\nThe plan is Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta and Tyler Shough for New Orleans, with neither carrying a game designation. Shough went 29 of 42 for 255 yards and four touchdowns, two apiece to Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant, before two lost fumbles and a pick fueled four fourth-quarter turnovers, per Yahoo Sports on Sept. 29. Saturday designations reported Oct. 3 by Yahoo Sports and Fox8 Live ruled out Saints linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf) and edge rusher Carl Granderson (ankle), while WWL reported Oct. 3 that linebacker Anfernee Jennings (knee) is also out and running back Travis Etienne is on injured reserve. Atlanta, per USA Today's Falcons Wire on Oct. 3, lists linebacker Divine Deablo and end Samson Ebukam as questionable.\n\nThat makes **a light Saints second level against Bijan Robinson** and **no Carl Granderson to set the edge** the central matchup. If Raheem Morris runs into light boxes and stays ahead of the sticks, play-action opens for Penix; if Kellen Moore can manufacture any ground game without Etienne and keep Johnson and Fant on schedule, Shough gets the cleaner third downs he needs to avoid **another late turnover swing** on **a fast dome track**.\n\nThe market favours New Orleans at about 54 percent on Kalshi with the spread at Saints minus 1.5, while our rating sits at 53 percent for New Orleans as a second opinion that has scored behind the market. This is essentially a coin flip indoors, so trust the favorite only lightly.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T12:29:45.532599+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "Saints rule out Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson for Monday", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/saints-rule-kaden-elliss-carl-194210841.html", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Falcons vs. Saints injury report with Week 4 game designations", "url": "https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/falcons/2026/10/03/falcons-vs-saints-injury-report-with-week-4-game-designations/92077555007/", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Saints final Week 4 injury report: 3 Saints out vs Falcons", "url": "https://www.audacy.com/wwl/local-sports/saints/3-saints-out-vs-falcons", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Kellen Moore Pumps Sunshine on Saints Week 3 Loss to Raiders", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/kellen-moore-pumps-sunshine-saints-010924706.html", "date ": "2026-09-29" }, { "title": "Saints COLLAPSE vs Raiders 35-27! Big Q & Pops Q React", "url": "https://bvmsports.com/2026/09/29/saints-collapse-vs-raiders-35-27-big-q-pops-q-react/", "date ": "2026-09-29" }, { "title": "Green Bay has little room for error after 35-14 Falcons defeat", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/green-bay-little-room-error-130000405.html", "date ": "2026-09-29" }, { "title": "Tracking the NFC South: Falcons gain ground on division with win vs Packers", "url": "https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/tracking-the-nfc-south-falcons-gain-ground-on-division-with-win-vs-packers", "date ": "2026-09-29" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_TB_DAL", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "DAL", "TB" ], "p": [ 0.7269, 0.2731 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-08 20:15 ET", "home_qb": "Dak Prescott", "away_qb": "Jalon Daniels", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "0-3", "home_rest": 4.0, "away_rest": 4.0, "roof": null, "surface": "matrixturf", "stadium": "AT&T Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Thursday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Brian Schottenheimer", "away_coach": "Todd Bowles", "elo_home": 1455.3, "elo_away": 1429.4, "margin_elo_home": 3.0, "p_home_elo": 0.6047, "epa_diff": 0.2793, "qb_form_diff": 0.2743 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.83, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct08tbdal", "home": { "bid": 0.82, "ask": 0.84, "mid": 0.83, "volume": 53681.66 }, "away": { "bid": 0.16, "ask": 0.18, "mid": 0.16999999999999998, "volume": 89072.91 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT08TBDAL", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 10.5, "mid": 0.48, "bid": 0.47, "ask": 0.49, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "DAL", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct08tbdal" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT08TBDAL", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 47.5, "mid": 0.495, "bid": 0.49, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct08tbdal" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 9.5, "total_line": 47.5, "home_moneyline": -535.0, "away_moneyline": 400.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "An undrafted rookie is about to make his first NFL start opposite Dak Prescott, and that tells you how quickly Tampa Bay's season has tilted. Jalon Daniels steps in because Baker Mayfield suffered a dislocated thumb expected to sideline him 2 to 4 weeks, per BucsNation on September 30, with head coach Todd Bowles confirming Daniels as the starter, per Yahoo on September 29. Both teams are on four days' rest for the Thursday kickoff at AT&T Stadium, a brutal draw for a young quarterback on the road.\n\nTampa Bay sits 0-3 after a 23-16 home loss to Minnesota in Week 3, per Buccaneers.com on September 27, while Dallas sits 1-2 after a 34-31 loss to Baltimore on September 27, per ESPN. The injury reports stretch beyond quarterback. Tampa Bay listed Rueben Bain Jr. with a groin injury, Anthony Nelson with a shin injury and Josiah Trotter with a shoulder injury as non-participants on September 23, per Buccaneers.com. Dallas saw safety Jalen Thompson with a hamstring injury, cornerback Shavon Revel with a knee injury and defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard leave Sunday night without returning, per DallasCowboys.com on September 28.\n\nThe game turns in the trenches and in the secondary. Tampa Bay wants to survive behind **Todd Bowles's pressure packages**, but with **a banged-up edge rotation** it is hard to reach Prescott without exposing the back end. Dallas has its own problem with **a shorthanded secondary** if Revel and Thompson cannot go, yet asking **an undrafted rookie making his first start on the road on a short week** to exploit that is an enormous ask against NFL pass rush and crowd noise.\n\nThe market favours Dallas heavily, listing the Cowboys as 9.5-point favourites with an 81 percent chance to win on Kalshi observed September 30. Our rating model gives Dallas 73 percent to win, a second opinion that sits below the market, not ahead of it. Trust the home favourite with the veteran quarterback, but not fully: this many points on a short week with injuries in its own secondary leaves real back-door risk.", "written_utc": "2026-09-30T21:00:43.456418+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "NFL Panic Meter: With Baker Mayfield out, Bucs' backup plan at QB might wreck their season", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/article/nfl-panic-meter-with-baker-mayfield-out-bucs-backup-plan-at-qb-might-wreck-their-season-120746564.html", "date ": "2026-09-29" }, { "title": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers News - Baker Mayfield suffers dislocated thumb", "url": "https://www.bucsnation.com/tampa-bay-buccaneers-news", "date ": "2026-09-30" }, { "title": "Bain Jr., Trotter, Nelson Did Not Participate", "url": "https://www.buccaneers.com/news/buccaneers-vikings-injury-report-sept-23-week-3-2026", "date ": "2026-09-23" }, { "title": "Rapid Reaction: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16", "url": "https://www.buccaneers.com/news/bucs-lose-minnesota-vikings-week-3-2026-score-23-16", "date ": "2026-09-27" }, { "title": "Ravens 34-31 Cowboys (Sep 27, 2026) Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872960", "date ": "2026-09-27" }, { "title": "Updates: Cowboys host 5 players for tryout", "url": "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/updates-september-2026", "date ": "2026-09-28" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "JAX", "PHI" ], "p": [ 0.6751, 0.3249 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 09:30 ET", "home_qb": "Trevor Lawrence", "away_qb": "Jalen Hurts", "home_record": "2-1", "away_record": "2-1", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "stadium": "Tottenham Hotspur Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Liam Coen", "away_coach": "Nick Sirianni", "elo_home": 1602.1, "elo_away": 1544.9, "margin_elo_home": 4.2, "p_home_elo": 0.6469, "epa_diff": 0.165, "qb_form_diff": 0.2017 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.655, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11phijac", "home": { "bid": 0.65, "ask": 0.66, "mid": 0.655, "volume": 49244.57 }, "away": { "bid": 0.34, "ask": 0.35, "mid": 0.345, "volume": 35806.87 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11PHIJAC", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 3.5, "mid": 0.515, "bid": 0.51, "ask": 0.52, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "JAX", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11phijac" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11PHIJAC", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 43.5, "mid": 0.49, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11phijac" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 3.0, "total_line": 44.5, "home_moneyline": -148.0, "away_moneyline": 124.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Jalen Carter is trying to collapse the pocket with a cast on his right wrist, and that tells you where this game starts. The Philadelphia defensive tackle is playing through a hairline wrist fracture, per Yahoo Sports on October 3, doing it on grass outdoors at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff that tests body clocks and weekly routine. Both teams make the transatlantic trip on normal rest, with no bye advantage to hide behind.\n\nBoth projected starters at quarterback \u2014 Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville and Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia \u2014 practiced into Week 4 with no search result ruling them out for London. Lawrence threw three touchdown passes in Jacksonville's 35-6 rout of New England on September 27, per ESPN's recap, and was on the practice field September 30 per the team's site. Hurts is coming off a 27-7 loss at Chicago on September 28 per ESPN, with DeVonta Smith missing all three practices with a hamstring and ruled out for the October 4 Rams game alongside linebacker Zack Baun in concussion protocol, per Yahoo Sports on October 3, while Jordan Davis, Marcus Epps and Hollywood Brown were also on the Week 4 report.\n\nThat sets up **Jalen Carter's wrist and power** against Jacksonville's interior to anchor the run and push the pocket one-handed, and **Zack Baun's availability in the middle** for run fits and coverage checks if Week 4 absence lingers. **DeVonta Smith's hamstring** tilts coverage without Philadelphia's separator, letting Jacksonville roll help to the remaining threats and dare the run game to win light boxes, while **Trevor Lawrence's timing coming off the Patriots rout** should leave Jacksonville's quick game and play-action answers if Philadelphia cannot pressure with four.\n\nThe market favours Jacksonville by three points with 44.5 total, in line with Kalshi's 58% win price for the Jaguars on October 4. Our rating model gives Jacksonville 68% to win, higher than the market after trailing it. Trust the favourite only modestly: Philadelphia's health is trending the wrong way up front, but a banged-up underdog with an intact pass rush can shorten any London morning.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T01:41:14.950508+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-09-28", "title": "Bears 27-7 Eagles (Sep 28, 2026) Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872963" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Jaguars 35-6 Patriots (Sep 27, 2026) Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872957" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Eagles Rule Out DeVonta Smith, Zack Baun for Game vs Rams", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/eagles-rule-devonta-smith-zack-230512954.html" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Eagles' growing injury list sets up dangerous Rams matchup", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/eagles-growing-injury-list-sets-164452737.html" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Jaguars Media Give Final Analysis Before Week 4 Against Bengals", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/news/jaguars-media-give-final-analysis-before-week-4-against-bengals" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_CHI_GB", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "GB", "CHI" ], "p": [ 0.5138, 0.4862 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Jordan Love", "away_qb": "Case Keenum", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "2-1", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "stadium": "Lambeau Field", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": true, "home_coach": "Matt LaFleur", "away_coach": "Ben Johnson", "elo_home": 1470.9, "elo_away": 1567.4, "margin_elo_home": -1.9, "p_home_elo": 0.4306, "epa_diff": 0.1065, "qb_form_diff": 0.2088 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.47, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11chigb", "home": { "bid": 0.47, "ask": 0.48, "mid": 0.475, "volume": 16452.75 }, "away": { "bid": 0.53, "ask": 0.54, "mid": 0.535, "volume": 66329.19 } }, "derivatives": {}, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 2.5, "total_line": 45.5, "home_moneyline": -135.0, "away_moneyline": 114.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Case Keenum just drove Chicago to three touchdowns in a 27-7 rout of Philadelphia, and now the encore is Lambeau against a Green Bay defense allowing 30.3 points per game. It is a division game outdoors on grass, and Oddstrader's Oct. 3 forecast calls for a mild 75.7-degree afternoon under partially cloudy skies, so conditions should not decide it.\n\nChicago remains in its backup quarterback plan. Caleb Williams was officially ruled out for Week 4 versus the New York Jets on the Bears' site on Oct. 2, which is why the package again projects Case Keenum after his Sept. 28 start detailed by ESPN. Green Bay projects Jordan Love with no new quarterback injury found, but his front is thinning \u2014 Jagar Burton's groin injury made eight Packers on the Week 4 report per RoundTable on Oct. 3, while Micah Parsons is still working back from knee surgery per A to Z Sports on Oct. 3.\n\nThat frames **Chicago's quick game and play-action against a short-handed Green Bay rush** as the first decider; Keenum finished drives when kept clean against Philadelphia. The other way, watch **Green Bay's passing game against a Chicago secondary missing Kyler Gordon**, ruled out for Week 4 per Bear Goggles On on Oct. 2, plus **the trench rotation with Ben Johnson calling it for Chicago against Matt LaFleur** in this rivalry.\n\nThe market favours Green Bay at about **55%**, about a 2.5-point favourite with a 45.5 total. Our rating model sits cooler at **51% for Green Bay**, a second opinion shaded toward Chicago that has scored behind the market over time. With a backup on the road and a home line in flux, trust the favourite only lightly.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T00:58:27.571887+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "Caleb Williams officially ruled out for Sunday's game vs. Jets", "url": "https://www.chicagobears.com/news/injury-update-caleb-williams-officially-ruled-out-for-sunday-s-game-vs-jets", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "Bears 27-7 Eagles (Sep 28, 2026) Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872963", "date ": "2026-09-28" }, { "title": "2026 Green Bay Packers Rosters, Stats, Schedule, Team", "url": "https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2026.htm", "date ": "2026-10-01" }, { "title": "Bears vs Packers Week 5 NFL Weather Report", "url": "https://www.oddstrader.com/nfl/matchups/chicago-bears-vs-green-bay-packers-2026-10-11-e4798348/weather/", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Offensive Lineman Becomes Eighth Packers Player on Week 4 Injury Report", "url": "https://roundtable.io/sports/nfl/packers/news/offensive-lineman-becomes-eighth-packers-player-on-week-4-injury-report", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Latest Micah Parsons update is a troubling reality", "url": "https://atozsports.com/nfl/green-bay-packers-news/micah-parsons-injury-update-november/", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Bears final Week 4 injury report: Caleb Williams, Kyler Gordon officially out", "url": "https://beargoggleson.com/bears-final-week-4-injury-report-caleb-williams-kyler-gordon-officially-out", "date ": "2026-10-02" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "MIA", "CIN" ], "p": [ 0.3194, 0.6806 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Malik Willis", "away_qb": "Joe Burrow", "home_record": "0-3", "away_record": "2-1", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "stadium": "Hard Rock Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Jeff Hafley", "away_coach": "Zac Taylor", "elo_home": 1395.0, "elo_away": 1525.3, "margin_elo_home": -3.3, "p_home_elo": 0.3837, "epa_diff": -0.0431, "qb_form_diff": -0.3095 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.215, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11cinmia", "home": { "bid": 0.21, "ask": 0.22, "mid": 0.215, "volume": 16126.49 }, "away": { "bid": 0.78, "ask": 0.79, "mid": 0.785, "volume": 25865.58 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11CINMIA", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 7.5, "mid": 0.485, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.49, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "CIN", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11cinmia" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11CINMIA", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 42.5, "mid": 0.505, "bid": 0.5, "ask": 0.51, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11cinmia" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": -8.5, "total_line": 46.5, "home_moneyline": 360.0, "away_moneyline": -470.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "The speed that used to define Miami is simply gone, and that changes everything about how this game has to be played.\n\nThe Dolphins fell 24-10 to Kansas City on Sept. 27 as Patrick Mahomes threw for 246 yards and two touchdowns, per ESPN on Sept. 27, while quarterback Malik Willis finished 20 of 36 for 210 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, per CBS Sports on Sept. 30. Willis is now without running back De'Von Achane, out with a torn ACL per Yahoo Sports on Oct. 1, and the Vikings' official preview on Oct. 2 noted wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are gone. Cincinnati fell 30-27 at Pittsburgh on Sept. 27 even as quarterback Joe Burrow went 28 of 37 for 282 yards and three touchdowns, per the Bengals' official site on Sept. 27, and Burrow practiced Oct. 1 per Bengals.com on Oct. 2. Wide receiver Colbie Young and safety Kyle Dugger were ruled out for Week 4 per Yahoo Sports on Oct. 2, so Week 5 status is pending.\n\nWhere it is won is **Burrow's timing game against a thin Miami secondary** that just gave up two scores through the air to Kansas City, and whether Cincinnati protects the ball after Pittsburgh stole the 30-27 win on a late sack-fumble, per Steelers.com on Sept. 27. The counter is **Willis's legs as Miami's only consistent outlet** with **the Achane loss and missing Hill-Waddle speed** forcing Jeff Hafley to shorten the game while Zac Taylor wants to spread it out. Outdoors on grass at Hard Rock on a full week for both, with no verified long-range forecast.\n\nThe market is heavy on Cincinnati at about 83% to win, Miami 17% on Kalshi observed Oct. 3. Our rating has it 68% Cincinnati and 32% Miami, offered only as a second opinion since it has scored behind the market. Trust the favorite on quarterback alone, but this favorite still has to prove it can finish clean on the road.", "written_utc": "2026-10-03T13:33:26.552843+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Chiefs 24-10 Dolphins (Sep 27, 2026) Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872952" }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "title": "Dolphins' Malik Willis: Struggles again as team drops to 0-3", "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/2804167/malik-willis/" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "Dolphins' Malik Willis Rising Up QB Rankings Despite ...", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/dolphins-malik-willis-rising-qb-183416061.html" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Vikings Against Dolphins Week 4 Game Preview", "url": "https://www.vikings.com/news/dolphins-week-4-game-preview-2026" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Bengals Steelers Postgame Recap Stats, Notes and Quotes", "url": "https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-steelers-recap-postgame-notes-quotes-stats-week-3-2026" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Week 4 Injury Report | Jaguars vs Bengals", "url": "https://www.bengals.com/news/jaguars-bengals-injury-report-week-4-2026" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Week 4 injury report for Cincinnati", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/week-4-injury-report-cincinnati-025635256.html" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Steelers beat Bengals, 30-27", "url": "https://www.steelers.com/news/steelers-beat-bengals-30-27" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "NYJ", "CLE" ], "p": [ 0.4637, 0.5363 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Geno Smith", "away_qb": "Deshaun Watson", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "3-1", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 10.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf", "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Aaron Glenn", "away_coach": "Todd Monken", "elo_home": 1376.0, "elo_away": 1461.8, "margin_elo_home": -1.5, "p_home_elo": 0.4458, "epa_diff": 0.0089, "qb_form_diff": 0.0161 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.54, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11clenyj", "home": { "bid": 0.54, "ask": 0.55, "mid": 0.545, "volume": 7292.33 }, "away": { "bid": 0.46, "ask": 0.47, "mid": 0.46499999999999997, "volume": 25461.22 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11CLENYJ", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 1.5, "mid": 0.505, "bid": 0.5, "ask": 0.51, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "NYJ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11clenyj" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11CLENYJ", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 40.5, "mid": 0.49, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11clenyj" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 1.5, "total_line": 40.5, "home_moneyline": -126.0, "away_moneyline": 108.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Deshaun Watson has authored a fourth-quarter game-winning drive in three straight games, the first Browns quarterback on such a streak since Brian Sipe, according to Spectrum News 1 on Oct. 3. That run includes Thursday's 27-24 win over Pittsburgh on Andre Szmyt's 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left, per ESPN's Oct. 2 recap. Cleveland arrives at outdoor MetLife on a 10-day mini-bye, while New York is coming off a 24-31 loss at Detroit where Geno Smith went 31-of-37 for 321 yards and three scores, per JetsInsider on Oct. 2.\n\nBoth projected starters are on track, with no QB change flagged in this week's reports. Watson's late-game run has steadied Todd Monken's offense after an 0-1 start. Smith has **Garrett Wilson and rookie Kenyon Sadiq** giving him real answers outside after their Detroit production, noted by newyorkjets.com on Oct. 1. Injury-wise, Cleveland lost **rookie defensive tackle Mason Graham to a sprained MCL and ankle** that will cost him at least a few weeks, per cleveland.com on Oct. 2.\n\nThat absence is where this game tilts. Without Graham clogging the middle, Aaron Glenn's ground game should get a cleaner look if **Breece Hall's quad** cooperates \u2014 Hall was ruled out for Week 4 against Chicago and did not practice all week, per JetsInsider on Oct. 2. On the other side, **Minkah Fitzpatrick's expected return from a groin absence** that cost him two games, per JetNation on Oct. 2, matters against Watson's late-game throws, with **edge Kingsley Enagbare (knee) questionable** per the Jets' official Oct. 2 report.\n\nThe market has New York a 1.5-point favorite, about 53% to win on Kalshi, with a 40.5 total. Our rating model sits the other way at 46% for New York, a second opinion rather than a disagreement to force. With a run defense missing its anchor and both backfields in flux, trust the favorite only a little \u2014 this profiles as a one-score, fourth-quarter game again.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T01:33:10.297922+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "How the Browns quickly turned their season around", "url": "https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/dayton/news/2026/10/03/how-the-browns-quickly-turned-their-season-around", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Browns 27-24 Steelers (Oct 1, 2026) Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872964", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "Jets Weekly Round-Up: October 2, 2026", "url": "https://jetsinsider.com/insiders-analysis/jets-weekly-round-up-october-2-2026/", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "Mason Graham suffers sprained MCL and ankle out at least a few weeks", "url": "https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2026/10/browns-dt-mason-graham-suffers-a-sprained-mcl-and-ankle-that-will-keep-him-out-at-least-a-few-weeks-but-apparently-avoided-a-major-injury.html", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "Jets News: Breece Hall Out, Minkah Fitzpatrick Back for Bears", "url": "https://www.jetnation.com/2026/10/02/jets-news-breece-hall-out-minkah-fitzpatrick-back-for-bears/", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "Jets Injury Report Week 4 vs. Bears - Friday", "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/jets-injury-report-week-4-vs-bears-friday-10-02-2026", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "What Advantages Should the Jets Have Against the Bears?", "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/what-advantages-should-the-jets-have-against-the-bears-10-02-2026", "date ": "2026-10-01" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "TEN", "HOU" ], "p": [ 0.3038, 0.6962 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Cam Ward", "away_qb": "C.J. Stroud", "home_record": "0-3", "away_record": "0-3", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "stadium": "Nissan Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": true, "home_coach": "Robert Saleh", "away_coach": "DeMeco Ryans", "elo_home": 1314.5, "elo_away": 1534.0, "margin_elo_home": -6.9, "p_home_elo": 0.2714, "epa_diff": 0.1587, "qb_form_diff": -0.0614 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.255, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11houten", "home": { "bid": 0.25, "ask": 0.26, "mid": 0.255, "volume": 17515.05 }, "away": { "bid": 0.74, "ask": 0.75, "mid": 0.745, "volume": 13973.82 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11HOUTEN", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 6.5, "mid": 0.5, "bid": 0.49, "ask": 0.51, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "HOU", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11houten" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11HOUTEN", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 39.5, "mid": 0.5, "bid": 0.49, "ask": 0.51, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11houten" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": -6.5, "total_line": 39.5, "home_moneyline": 245.0, "away_moneyline": -305.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Getting Nico Collins back might fix what's broken in Houston. The Texans managed only 23 points across the two games Collins missed, per Yahoo's Oct. 3 roundup, and the Houston Chronicle reported Oct. 3 that Collins was expected back from his hamstring injury. For an offense that has lived in fits and starts, that one receiver changes the geometry for C.J. Stroud.\n\nThis is an AFC South meeting at Nissan Stadium, outdoors on grass, with both sides still searching for a first win after entering Week 4 at 0-3. Houston's last completed game was a 17-19 loss at Indianapolis on Sept. 27, while Tennessee fell 7-12 at the New York Giants. Cam Ward remains Tennessee's projected starter, with head coach Robert Saleh publicly backing him after a late interception sealed the Giants loss, per Fox Sports on Sept. 28, and Ward himself telling the team's site on Sept. 30 he must improve in critical situations. No final Week 5 injury report has been published yet.\n\nThat frames **where this game turns: Collins against Tennessee's corners** and whether Houston can stay out of obvious passing downs. The Texans' run game stalled for a second straight week behind uncreative play-calling, per USA Today's Texans Wire on Oct. 3, putting more on Stroud against head coach DeMeco Ryans' old rival front. On the other side, **Ward's decision-making in the red zone** and **Tennessee's ability to force Stroud to hold the ball** will decide if the Titans can keep a fourth straight game within one score.\n\nThe market sides clearly with Houston, listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a 39.5 total, which lines up with Kalshi pricing Houston at about 74 percent to win and Tennessee at 26 percent. Our rating model gives Tennessee about 30 percent, a second opinion that is slightly warmer to the Titans but still behind the market. Trust the favorite only modestly; neither team has shown it can close.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T01:28:22.224767+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "Will Texans WR Nico Collins play Sunday vs. the Cowboys?", "url": "https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/nico-collins-injury-report-22460151.php", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Final Injury Report for Week 4 vs. Cowboys", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texans-injury-round-final-injury-122751819.html", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Saleh backs Cam Ward after late pick drops Titans to 0-3", "url": "https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/saleh-backs-cam-ward-after-late-pick-drops-titans-to-03-with-doubts-growing", "date ": "2026-09-28" }, { "title": "Titans QB Cam Ward Turning Focus to Ravens While Looking to Improve in Critical Situations", "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/news/titans-qb-cam-ward-turning-focus-to-ravens-while-looking-to-improve-in-critical-situations", "date ": "2026-09-30" }, { "title": "Week 4 picks: Who the experts are taking in Texans vs Cowboys", "url": "https://texanswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/texans/2026/10/03/houston-texans-dallas-cowboys-week-4-nfl-injury-report-experts/92077195007/", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Colts 19-17 Texans Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872951", "date ": "2026-09-27" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "PIT", "IND" ], "p": [ 0.5942, 0.4058 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Aaron Rodgers", "away_qb": "Daniel Jones", "home_record": "2-2", "away_record": "1-2", "home_rest": 10.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Mike McCarthy", "away_coach": "Shane Steichen", "elo_home": 1507.8, "elo_away": 1448.8, "margin_elo_home": 4.3, "p_home_elo": 0.6493, "epa_diff": -0.0228, "qb_form_diff": -0.0744 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.55, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11indpit", "home": { "bid": 0.54, "ask": 0.55, "mid": 0.545, "volume": 12674.66 }, "away": { "bid": 0.44, "ask": 0.45, "mid": 0.445, "volume": 3058.52 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11INDPIT", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 2.5, "mid": 0.495, "bid": 0.49, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "PIT", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11indpit" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11INDPIT", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 43.5, "mid": 0.51, "bid": 0.5, "ask": 0.52, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11indpit" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 1.5, "total_line": 44.5, "home_moneyline": -136.0, "away_moneyline": 116.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "The 'Indiana Jones' version of Daniel Jones hasn't shown up yet, and that is the whole game in Pittsburgh. Writing Oct. 1 in the IndyStar, Gregg Doyel noted Jones still isn't himself after Achilles rehab, with everything known about that injury suggesting he should get a lot better soon \u2014 just not necessarily by next Sunday.\n\nBoth quarterbacks are still expected to go \u2014 Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh and Jones for Indianapolis, as listed on FoxSports' Oct. 3 game page, which showed no players listed as injured for the Oct. 11 meeting. The setting is clean fall ball: outdoors on grass at Acrisure Stadium with a forecast near 70 degrees and only a 10% chance of rain, per Oddstrader's Oct. 2 weather report, with Pittsburgh on **a 10-day mini-bye after that Thursday-night collapse in Cleveland** and Indianapolis on a normal week after ending its nine-game skid 19-17 over Houston on Spencer Shrader's kick with 16 seconds left, per ESPN's Sept. 27 recap.\n\nWhere it turns is **Pittsburgh's retooled right side against a Colts defense giving up 30-plus**. The Athletic noted Sept. 30 that Mike McCarthy's retooling of the right side has paid off, while Indianapolis already gave up 41 to Baltimore and 33 at Kansas City, sitting 29th in points allowed at 30.3 per game through three weeks, per Pro-Football-Reference. Pittsburgh just lived the other side of that in Cleveland, giving up 21 in the second quarter before Andre Szmyt's 56-yard walk-off, per PFF and the BBC. If **Bernhard Raimann and the Colts tackles can keep Jones clean long enough to push it downfield**, Shane Steichen can drag this back into a one-score fourth quarter.\n\nThe market makes Pittsburgh a slight favourite at 56% on Kalshi, about 1.5 points on the book line with a 44.5 total. Our rating model sits nearby at 59% for Pittsburgh, a second opinion that points the same way rather than a disagreement. With **Jones still working back from Achilles rehab** and Pittsburgh rested off a divisional loss, trust the favourite only a little \u2014 this profiles as a coin flip decided by protection and red-zone finishing.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T01:46:54.785038+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "Daniel Jones, Colts QB, isn't himself after Achilles' rehab - IndyStar", "url": "https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/columnists/gregg-doyel/2026/10/01/colts-qb-daniel-jones-struggling-will-improve-after-achilles-rehab-aaron-rodgers/91972854007/" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Oct 11, 2026 - FoxSports", "url": "https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/week-5-indianapolis-colts-vs-pittsburgh-steelers-oct-11-2026-game-boxscore-11068" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Colts vs Steelers Week 5 NFL Weather Report - Oddstrader", "url": "https://www.oddstrader.com/nfl/matchups/indianapolis-colts-vs-pittsburgh-steelers-2026-10-11-e4798346/weather/" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Colts 19-17 Texans Game Recap - ESPN", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872951" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "NFL Week 4 Recap: Steelers 24, Browns 27 - PFF", "url": "https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-4-recap-pittsburgh-steelers-24-cleveland-browns-27" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "NFL highlights: Pittsburgh Steelers 24-27 Cleveland Browns - BBC", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/sport/american-football/videos/ck0j3jx61je6o" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "2026 Indianapolis Colts Rosters, Stats, Schedule - Pro-Football-Reference", "url": "https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2026.htm" }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "title": "NFL spread, straight-up picks: Vikings, Ravens, Bills top Week 4 - The Athletic", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7646371/2026/09/30/nfl-spread-straight-up-picks-confidence-rankings-week-4/" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_LV_NE", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "NE", "LV" ], "p": [ 0.623, 0.377 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Drake Maye", "away_qb": "Kirk Cousins", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "3-0", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf", "stadium": "Gillette Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Mike Vrabel", "away_coach": "Klint Kubliak", "elo_home": 1577.0, "elo_away": 1455.3, "margin_elo_home": 6.8, "p_home_elo": 0.7265, "epa_diff": 0.032, "qb_form_diff": -0.2016 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.6375, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11lvne", "home": { "bid": 0.63, "ask": 0.65, "mid": 0.64, "volume": 15009.0 }, "away": { "bid": 0.36, "ask": 0.37, "mid": 0.365, "volume": 130638.24 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11LVNE", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 3.5, "mid": 0.495, "bid": 0.49, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "NE", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11lvne" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11LVNE", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 45.5, "mid": 0.495, "bid": 0.49, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11lvne" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 3.5, "total_line": 44.5, "home_moneyline": -192.0, "away_moneyline": 160.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Kirk Cousins is tied for the league lead with nine touchdown passes and still walks in as more than a field-goal underdog. That tells you how the market reads this cross-country trip to outdoor Gillette Stadium, with both teams on full rest and no reliable Oct. 11 forecast in searches. It is veteran timing against a young quarterback trying to steady a scuffling offense.\n\nPatriots quarterback Drake Maye is the question. He landed on the injury report with a **right shoulder issue**, first noted by 98.5 The Sports Hub on Sept. 30, but told reporters it is not affecting his throws, per NFL.com. No injury news surfaced on Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins, who threw for 248 yards in the 35-27 comeback win at New Orleans on Sept. 27 that kept Las Vegas unbeaten, per FOX5 Vegas and Raiders.com. New England's last verified result is a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville, and it entered Week 4 last in the league at **12.0 points per game**.\n\nThat gap is where this game is won. Las Vegas forced **four fourth-quarter takeaways** to steal the Saints win, per the Saints' official recap, and now gets a Patriots offense that stalls in the red zone. If Mike Vrabel's front cannot pressure Cousins without blitzing, Cousins will live on play-action and quick throws \u2014 his 3-yard score to Michael Mayer in New Orleans is the template, per NFL.com video. New England has to protect Maye and manufacture easy early completions to keep the Raiders honest.\n\nThe market favours New England at **64 percent on Kalshi**, about 3.5 points with a 44.5 total. Our number is nearby as a second opinion at 62 percent for New England, essentially agreeing. Trust the favourite only modestly against an unbeaten, turnover-hungry road team.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T00:55:30.474819+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-09-30", "title": "Drake Maye has officially been added to the Patriots' injury report", "url": "https://985thesportshub.com/2026/09/30/drake-maye-has-officially-been-added-to-the-patriots-injury-report/" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "Patriots' Drake Maye: Shoulder not impacting throws; no rift with HC Mike Vrabel", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/patriots-drake-maye-shoulder-not-impacting-throws-no-rift-with-hc-mike-vrabel" }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "title": "Kirk Cousins leads unbeaten Las Vegas Raiders to top Saints 35-27", "url": "https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/09/28/kirk-cousins-leads-unbeaten-las-vegas-raiders-top-saints-35-27/" }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "title": "Game Recap: Raiders erase 11-point deficit in New Orleans to stay undefeated", "url": "https://www.raiders.com/news/game-recap-raiders-erase-11-point-deficit-in-new-orleans-to-stay-undefeated" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Saints vs. Raiders Game Recap - Week 3 - Sept. 27, 2026", "url": "https://www.neworleanssaints.com/game-day/2026/reg-week3/raiders-at-saints/recap" }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "title": "Kirk Cousins' seventh TD pass of 2026 locates Michael Mayer in New Orleans", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/videos/kirk-cousins-seventh-td-pass-of-2026-locates-michael-mayer-in-new-orleans" }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "title": "Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 Final Preview - Keys To Victory", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwiazZ7ISMw" }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "title": "Raiders: Las Vegas surging in Week 4 NFL Power Rankings", "url": "https://www.silverandblackpride.com/las-vegas-raiders-power-rankings/141392/las-vegas-raiders-nfl-power-rankings-week-4" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "NO", "MIN" ], "p": [ 0.4084, 0.5916 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Tyler Shough", "away_qb": "Kyler Murray", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "3-0", "home_rest": 6.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf", "stadium": "Caesars Superdome", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Kellen Moore", "away_coach": "Kevin O'Connell", "elo_home": 1443.5, "elo_away": 1611.5, "margin_elo_home": -4.8, "p_home_elo": 0.3339, "epa_diff": 0.3462, "qb_form_diff": 0.1128 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.485, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11minno", "home": { "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.49, "mid": 0.485, "volume": 2985.75 }, "away": { "bid": 0.51, "ask": 0.52, "mid": 0.515, "volume": 20162.52 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11MINNO", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 1.5, "mid": 0.485, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.49, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "MIN", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11minno" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11MINNO", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 42.5, "mid": 0.49, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11minno" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": -2.5, "total_line": 44.5, "home_moneyline": 120.0, "away_moneyline": -142.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Tyler Shough threw four touchdown passes against Las Vegas and then lost two fumbles and threw a pick during a 13-0 fourth quarter that flipped a Saints lead into a 35-27 home loss, per Yahoo Sports on Oct. 4 and the Saints' Sept. 28 recap. That is the story for head coach Kellen Moore: New Orleans moves it well enough to lead at home, but four fourth-quarter turnovers undid it. Back in the dome with no weather factor, Shough's late composure sets the ceiling.\n\nMinnesota is 3-0 after a 23-16 win at Tampa Bay plus wins over Green Bay and Chicago. Projected starter Kyler Murray discussed operating without Justin Jefferson in team video on Oct. 2, and that is the injury to watch. Jefferson missed the Oct. 4 Miami game with an ankle sprain from the Tampa win and did not practice all week, per VikingsWire on Oct. 3, though Jeremy Fowler reported via NBC Sports on Oct. 3 he could return Week 5. Kevin O'Connell has won without explosives, but **Jefferson's ankle** dictates every coverage Minnesota sees.\n\nWhere it turns is **Shough's fourth-quarter ball security** against a Vikings defense that has won with low-scoring, no-gift football, and whether Minnesota can stay on schedule if Jefferson is limited. New Orleans has to run it well enough to keep Kevin O'Connell's pressure looks honest, while Minnesota wants obvious passing downs where Shough has to hold the ball in a loud dome. **Short rest for New Orleans** only raises the value of a fast, clean start.\n\nThe market has Minnesota favored by 2.5 points with a 44.5 total, which lines up with Kalshi's 54% win probability for Minnesota against 46% for New Orleans. Our rating model gives New Orleans 41% as a second opinion, and it has scored behind the market, so take it as a caution flag rather than a disagreement. Trust the favorite only modestly with Jefferson and the quarterbacks still in flux.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T01:35:17.957589+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-10-04", "title": "Tyler Shough Was the Saints' Late-Game Weapon Until ...", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/tyler-shough-saints-game-weapon-190000235.html" }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "title": "Game Recap: Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27", "url": "https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/2026-nfl-week-3-las-vegas-raiders-vs-new-orleans-saints-game-recap" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Official injury report for the Vikings ahead of Week 4", "url": "https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/vikings/2026/10/03/week-4-injury-report-for-the-vikings-has-justin-jefferson-out/92061011007/" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Fowler: Justin Jefferson (ankle) could play Week 5", "url": "https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/player-news/2026-10-03/fowler-justin-jefferson-ankle-could-play-week-5" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Kyler Murray on Impact of Losing Justin Jefferson, His Comfort Level With The Offense", "url": "https://www.vikings.com/video/kyler-murray-on-impact-of-losing-justin-jefferson-his-comfort-level-with-the-offense" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "WAS", "NYG" ], "p": [ 0.6021, 0.3979 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 13:00 ET", "home_qb": "Jayden Daniels", "away_qb": "Jameis Winston", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "2-1", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "stadium": "Northwest Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": true, "home_coach": "Dan Quinn", "away_coach": "John Harbaugh", "elo_home": 1452.6, "elo_away": 1443.0, "margin_elo_home": 2.3, "p_home_elo": 0.5822, "epa_diff": 0.1085, "qb_form_diff": 0.1198 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.625, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11nygwas", "home": { "bid": 0.62, "ask": 0.63, "mid": 0.625, "volume": 22097.85 }, "away": { "bid": 0.37, "ask": 0.38, "mid": 0.375, "volume": 43998.95 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11NYGWAS", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 3.5, "mid": 0.475, "bid": 0.47, "ask": 0.48, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "WAS", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11nygwas" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11NYGWAS", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 44.5, "mid": 0.49, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11nygwas" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 2.5, "total_line": 43.5, "home_moneyline": -142.0, "away_moneyline": 120.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Jayden Daniels's left elbow is the whole game until it's not. Washington is hoping its starter can go from ruled-out in London to cleared for a division home date at Northwest Stadium after injuring his elbow, and that uncertainty hangs over a matchup of teams coming off **two turnover-decided Week 3 escapes**.\n\nDaniels was ruled out for the London game against Indianapolis, with Marcus Mariota starting in his place, according to the Associated Press via KRQE on Oct. 3, and he is back at practice and \"taking it day by day,\" with no surgery and no injured-reserve stint, per CommandersWire on Oct. 1. Bleacher Report on Oct. 3 pegged Week 5 against the visiting Giants as a possible return for **Daniels's dislocated left elbow**. The Giants have their own pivot: Jameis Winston is 1-0 as the starter under John Harbaugh, per Big Blue View on Oct. 1, after Jaxson Dart's knee injury, edging Tennessee 12-7 on Sept. 27 when Winston went 12 of 18 for 117 yards, per ESPN's recap. Searches found nothing new on either offensive line or the top pass-rushers and corners.\n\nThat sets up **Winston's ball security against a takeaway-dependent defense**. Washington beat Seattle 33-31 on Sept. 27 despite getting outgained 437 yards to 258, per FOX Sports, needing a 50-yard interception return late to do it. New York won the opposite way, 12-7 over Tennessee in rain at MetLife Stadium, per The Athletic on Sept. 27, leaning on field position and a last-minute interception to cover for an offense averaging 15.3 points, 28th in the league through three weeks, per Pro-Football-Reference. The **London-to-home turnaround for Washington** only adds to the sloppiness risk.\n\nThe market has Washington favoured by 2.5 points with a 43.5 total, which lines up with Kalshi's 60% win price for Washington. Our model also gives Washington 60% to win, right even with the market, a second opinion rather than a disagreement. With the quarterback and travel questions, trust the favourite only lightly; this profiles as a field-goal division game either backup could tilt.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T01:30:00.254734+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Commanders 33-31 Seahawks Game Recap - ESPN", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872955" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Giants 12-7 Titans Game Recap - ESPN", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872956" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Marcus Mariota to start for Commanders against Colts in London with Jayden Daniels ruled out - AP via KRQE", "url": "https://www.krqe.com/sports/ap-marcus-mariota-to-start-for-commanders-against-colts-in-london-with-jayden-daniels-ruled-out/" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "Latest on Commanders QB Jayden Daniels' elbow injury - CommandersWire", "url": "https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/commanders/2026/10/01/jayden-daniels-injury-update-latest-commanders-elbow/92044041007/" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Jayden Daniels Injury Update, Commanders QB's Target Return Date Revealed - Bleacher Report", "url": "https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25505925-jayden-daniels-injury-update-commanders-qbs-target-return-date-revealed-new-nfl-rumors" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "Jameis Winston faces questions despite Sunday's victory - Big Blue View", "url": "https://www.bigblueview.com/new-york-giants-discussion/173748/jameis-winston-faces-questions-jj-mccarthy-trade" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Giants survive in slopfest vs. Titans - The Athletic", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7636648/2026/09/27/giants-titans-nfl-2026-score-result-takeaways/" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "2026 New York Giants Rosters, Stats, Schedule - Pro-Football-Reference", "url": "https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/2026.htm" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "LAC", "DEN" ], "p": [ 0.3392, 0.6608 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 16:05 ET", "home_qb": "Justin Herbert", "away_qb": "Bo Nix", "home_record": "0-3", "away_record": "2-1", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "dome", "surface": "matrixturf", "stadium": "SoFi Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": true, "home_coach": "Jim Harbaugh", "away_coach": "Sean Payton", "elo_home": 1441.3, "elo_away": 1604.6, "margin_elo_home": -4.6, "p_home_elo": 0.3399, "epa_diff": -0.16, "qb_form_diff": -0.1178 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.36, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11denlac", "home": { "bid": 0.36, "ask": 0.37, "mid": 0.365, "volume": 5165.04 }, "away": { "bid": 0.64, "ask": 0.65, "mid": 0.645, "volume": 9627.32 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11DENLAC", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 3.5, "mid": 0.49, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "DEN", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11denlac" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11DENLAC", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 43.5, "mid": 0.495, "bid": 0.47, "ask": 0.52, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11denlac" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": -2.5, "total_line": 43.5, "home_moneyline": 114.0, "away_moneyline": -135.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Nobody has finished games worse than Los Angeles, and nobody has finished them better than Bo Nix. The Chargers entered Week 4 ranked 31st in fourth-quarter points allowed (11.0) and last in fourth-quarter scoring, per a Chargers.com preview Oct. 2, while Denver erased a 16-point halftime deficit for 30 second-half points to beat the Los Angeles Rams 30-26, per the Broncos' official recap Sept. 28.\n\nIt's a stark AFC West swing under the SoFi Stadium dome, with no weather and all the desperation on Los Angeles at 0-3. Justin Herbert and Bo Nix are the projected starters and searches found no QB injury for either. The watch list comes from Week 4: Denver edge Dondrea Tillman (hamstring) was ruled out for San Francisco, per BroncosWire Oct. 2, while Derwin James Jr. (hamstring), Ladd McConkey, Elijah Molden and Donte Jackson (concussion) were questionable for Seattle, per Chargers.com Oct. 2.\n\nThe game turns on **Los Angeles pass protection against Denver's rush** and **Denver's late passing against a thinned secondary**. Herbert has been sacked eight times and is among the league's most-hit quarterbacks, per ESPN Oct. 3 \u2014 a bad profile against a Sean Payton team built to play ahead. If James and Jackson are limited, Nix gets the leverage and broken-coverage throws he just punished, testing **Jim Harbaugh's leaky fourth-quarter run fits** again.\n\nThe market has Denver a small favorite \u2014 2.5 points with a 43.5 total, about **54% for Denver and 46% for Los Angeles on Kalshi**. Our rating model is higher on the Broncos at **66% to 34%**, offered only as a second opinion that has scored behind the market. Trust the favorite only lightly: Denver needed comebacks to reach 2-1 and now walks into a desperate division spot on even rest.", "written_utc": "2026-10-03T16:53:25.030569+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "Broncos injury report: Pass rusher ruled out for 49ers game", "url": "https://broncoswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/broncos/2026/10/02/denver-broncos-injury-report-vs-49ers-nfl-week-4/92045109007/", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "Chargers vs. Seahawks Injury Report: Derwin James & Ladd McConkey Among 5 Questionable in Week 4", "url": "https://www.chargers.com/news/seahawks-injury-report-week-4", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "The history of Harbaugh, Herbert and a 0-3 Chargers team", "url": "https://www.espn.ph/nfl/story/_/id/50073934/la-chargers-jim-harbaugh-justin-herbert-struggles", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Cover 4: In back-and-forth prime-time duel, Broncos earn 30-26 win over Rams", "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/cover-4-in-back-and-forth-prime-time-duel-broncos-earn-30-26-win-over-rams", "date ": "2026-09-28" }, { "title": "5 Final Thoughts Ahead of Chargers-Seahawks in Week 4", "url": "https://www.chargers.com/news/seahawks-game-preview-week-4-2026", "date ": "2026-10-02" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_DET_ARI", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "ARI", "DET" ], "p": [ 0.3296, 0.6704 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 16:25 ET", "home_qb": "Jacoby Brissett", "away_qb": "Jared Goff", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "2-1", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": null, "surface": "grass", "stadium": "State Farm Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Jonathan Gannon", "away_coach": "Dan Campbell", "elo_home": 1415.1, "elo_away": 1553.8, "margin_elo_home": -3.6, "p_home_elo": 0.3723, "epa_diff": -0.0852, "qb_form_diff": -0.2416 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.2925, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11detari", "home": { "bid": 0.29, "ask": 0.31, "mid": 0.3, "volume": 4986.25 }, "away": { "bid": 0.71, "ask": 0.72, "mid": 0.715, "volume": 9575.89 } }, "derivatives": {}, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": -5.5, "total_line": 52.5, "home_moneyline": 200.0, "away_moneyline": -245.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Detroit has scored exactly 31 points in three straight games, and that metronome is the story as the Lions head west. Detroit edged the New York Jets 31-24 on Sep. 27 on Jahmyr Gibbs' third touchdown with 2:25 left, per ESPN's recap, while Arizona fell 36-30 at San Francisco the same day, per ESPN's Sep. 27 recap. State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof, per Yahoo's Sep. 4 guide, so Glendale heat \u2014 clear and 93 degrees Saturday night, per Weather.com via OneFootball \u2014 should not intrude.\n\nJared Goff and Jacoby Brissett are the projected starters. Goff remains Detroit's steady distributor, while Brissett has run Arizona's offense, including a one-yard touchdown to running back Jeremiyah Love highlighted on the team's site; the site noted Oct. 3 that Brissett ranks 20th in EPA in expected passing situations. Up front, guard Ben Bartch was ruled out with a foot injury and cornerback D.J. Reed was questionable with a rib injury ahead of Week 4, per LionsWire's Oct. 2 report and CBS Sports' Week 4 injury report.\n\nThat spotlights **Detroit's interior run game with Gibbs against an Arizona front that gave up 31 to Seattle and 36 to San Francisco**. If Bartch stays out, Detroit's reshuffled guard play must still create lanes. Opposite, **Goff's timing game against Arizona's tackling on crossers** will decide explosives, and **Brissett staying on schedule to finish drives** is Arizona's only path to trading points.\n\nThe market favors Detroit at about 69% to win on Kalshi (Arizona 31%) observed Oct. 4, in line with Detroit minus 5.5 and a 52.5 total. Our rating model gives Detroit 67% (Arizona 33%), a touch cooler and best read as a second opinion since it has trailed the market. Trust Detroit moderately: the better roster travels, but a thin line keeps the upset alive.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T01:38:12.836109+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "Lions 31-24 Jets Game Recap - ESPN", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872954", "date ": "2026-09-27" }, { "title": "49ers 36-30 Cardinals Game Recap - ESPN", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872958", "date ": "2026-09-27" }, { "title": "Lions injury update: OL ruled out, starter questionable vs Panthers - LionsWire", "url": "https://lionswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2026/10/02/detroit-lions-injury-update-panthers-ben-bartch-out-dj-reed-questionable/92062916007/", "date ": "2026-10-02" }, { "title": "NFL Week 4 injury report - CBS Sports", "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-4-injury-report-justin-jefferson-aaron-donald-terry-mclaurin/", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Taking On Cam Skattebo, Sweat's Status, And Friday Before the Giants - AZCardinals.com", "url": "https://www.azcardinals.com/news/taking-on-cam-skattebo-sweat-s-status-and-friday-before-the-giants", "date ": "2026-10-03" }, { "title": "Which NFL stadiums have roofs? - Yahoo", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/nfl-stadiums-roofs-heres-look-130649788.html", "date ": "2026-09-04" }, { "title": "Matchday Guide: USMNT vs Mexico at State Farm Stadium - OneFootball", "url": "https://onefootball.com/en/news/matchday-guide-usmnt-vs-mexico-at-state-farm-stadium-in-glendale-ariz-43556574", "date ": "2026-10-03" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_SF_SEA", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "SEA", "SF" ], "p": [ 0.5155, 0.4845 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 16:25 ET", "home_qb": "Drew Lock", "away_qb": "Brock Purdy", "home_record": "2-1", "away_record": "3-0", "home_rest": 7.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf", "stadium": "Lumen Field", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": true, "home_coach": "Mike Macdonald", "away_coach": "Kyle Shanahan", "elo_home": 1678.8, "elo_away": 1617.2, "margin_elo_home": 4.4, "p_home_elo": 0.6527, "epa_diff": -0.3913, "qb_form_diff": -0.3214 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.595, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11sfsea", "home": { "bid": 0.59, "ask": 0.6, "mid": 0.595, "volume": 67906.54 }, "away": { "bid": 0.4, "ask": 0.41, "mid": 0.405, "volume": 118875.33 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11SFSEA", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 3.5, "mid": 0.455, "bid": 0.45, "ask": 0.46, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "SEA", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11sfsea" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11SFSEA", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 47.5, "mid": 0.48, "bid": 0.47, "ask": 0.49, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11sfsea" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 3.0, "total_line": 47.5, "home_moneyline": -175.0, "away_moneyline": 145.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Brock Purdy just hung four touchdowns on Arizona, yet San Francisco heads north with its supporting cast held together by tape. This NFC West meeting at outdoor Lumen Field carries early control of the division, and the forecast of about 57 degrees and partial clouds with a 19 percent chance, per Oddstrader on Oct. 1, should leave both passing games clean.\n\nSan Francisco's Brock Purdy is projected to start opposite Seattle's Drew Lock, but the injury report shapes this one. The 49ers' 36-30 win over Arizona on Sept. 27, per ESPN's recap that night, cost them wide receiver Mike Evans to a rib injury and tackle Trent Williams to a stinger, per The Athletic on Sept. 27, and Evans was still missing practice this week per 49ers WebZone on Oct. 3. Seattle's picture is less clear, with Sam Darnold described as the starter while Lock has drawn praise in relief, per Yahoo Sports on Oct. 2 and FieldGulls on Sept. 26, while safety Julian Love was set to return from a calf injury for Week 4 per Seahawks.com on Oct. 2.\n\nThat leaves **Seattle's edge rush against a banged-up San Francisco tackle spot** as the swing matchup, especially with crowd noise slowing Purdy's cadence and checks. On the other side, **Jaxon Smith-Njigba against a 49ers secondary that just allowed 30 points** matters after Smith-Njigba entered Week 4 leading the NFL with 405 receiving yards, per Chargers.com on Oct. 2. Expect **Kyle Shanahan's run schemes against Mike Macdonald's disguised fronts** to decide who gets easy play-action looks.\n\nThe market favours Seattle at about 63 percent to win on Kalshi observed Oct. 3, in line with a 3-point spread, while our rating model gives Seattle 52 percent as a second opinion that has trailed the market. With **Evans and Williams uncertain and Seattle's quarterback rotation still unsettled**, trust the favourite only lightly.", "written_utc": "2026-10-03T16:50:43.566835+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "49ers 36-30 Cardinals Game Recap - ESPN", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872958" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "49ers top Cardinals to reach 3-0, but lose Mike Evans - The Athletic", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7636384/2026/09/27/49ers-cardinals-nfl-score-result-takeaways/" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "49ers vs. Broncos injury report: Thursday practice brings several updates - 49ers WebZone", "url": "https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/203800-broncos-thursday-practice-several-updates/" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Julian Love 'Feeling Good,' Set To Return For Seahawks Week 4 game vs Chargers - Seahawks.com", "url": "https://www.seahawks.com/news/julian-love-feeling-good-set-to-return-for-seahawks-week-4-game-vs-chargers" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "5 Final Thoughts Ahead of Chargers-Seahawks in Week 4 - Chargers.com", "url": "https://www.chargers.com/news/seahawks-game-preview-week-4-2026" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "49ers vs Seahawks Week 5 NFL Weather Report - Oddstrader", "url": "https://www.oddstrader.com/nfl/matchups/san-francisco-49ers-vs-seattle-seahawks-2026-10-11-e4798350/weather/" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "3 Burning Questions Ahead of Seahawks' Week 4 Matchup - Yahoo Sports", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/3-burning-questions-ahead-seahawks-142437298.html" }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "title": "Why it doesn't make sense for the Seahawks to trade Drew Lock - FieldGulls", "url": "https://www.fieldgulls.com/seattle-seahawks-game-analysis/175730/why-it-doesnt-make-sense-seahawks-trade-drew-lock" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "ATL", "BAL" ], "p": [ 0.4239, 0.5761 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-11 20:20 ET", "home_qb": "Michael Penix Jr.", "away_qb": "Lamar Jackson", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "2-1", "home_rest": 6.0, "away_rest": 7.0, "roof": null, "surface": "fieldturf", "stadium": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Sunday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Raheem Morris", "away_coach": "Jesse Minter", "elo_home": 1461.2, "elo_away": 1549.1, "margin_elo_home": -1.6, "p_home_elo": 0.4428, "epa_diff": -0.2221, "qb_form_diff": -0.0946 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.3375, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11balatl", "home": { "bid": 0.33, "ask": 0.35, "mid": 0.33999999999999997, "volume": 53155.53 }, "away": { "bid": 0.66, "ask": 0.67, "mid": 0.665, "volume": 18004.58 } }, "derivatives": { "spread": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT11BALATL", "series": "KXNFLSPREAD", "strike": 3.5, "mid": 0.5, "bid": 0.49, "ask": 0.51, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "team": "BAL", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflspread/kxnflspread-26oct11balatl" }, "total": { "event_ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT11BALATL", "series": "KXNFLTOTAL", "strike": 47.5, "mid": 0.49, "bid": 0.48, "ask": 0.5, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnfltotal/kxnfltotal-26oct11balatl" } }, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": -6.0, "total_line": 49.5, "home_moneyline": 220.0, "away_moneyline": -270.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Two weeks of nothing, then 35 points in Green Bay \u2014 Atlanta's offensive line suddenly looks like the unit that could decide this one. The Falcons routed the Packers 35-14 in Week 3 after managing 16 points in two losses, while Baltimore edged Dallas 34-31 in Rio on Tyler Loop's 56-yard field goal, per ESPN's Sept. 27 recap. They meet in Atlanta with the Falcons on a short week after Monday night.\n\nBoth projected quarterbacks are on track to start. Michael Penix Jr. has no injury designation entering Week 4, while Lamar Jackson was limited with a back issue Wednesday and then upgraded and cleared for the Titans, per BaltimoreRavens.com on Oct. 1 and Adam Schefter on Oct. 2. The concerns are around Jackson: Baltimore lists **Ronnie Stanley's toe** and **Zay Flowers' hamstring** as questionable and Trey Hendrickson as out for Week 4, while Atlanta lists **hamstrings for Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam** as questionable, per AtlantaFalcons.com on Oct. 3.\n\nThat puts the game in the trenches. If Stanley sits or is limited, Jackson's blind side is exposed against a Falcons front that ESPN noted has **surprisingly dominated the trenches** on both sides. Raheem Morris needs Deablo's run fits on Derrick Henry and Ebukam to squeeze Jackson's escape lanes; without them Baltimore's zone-read and play-action shots to Flowers get clean. Atlanta wants to repeat Green Bay with **Bijan Robinson running behind a healthy interior** to stay out of third-and-long.\n\nThe market is firmly behind Baltimore at 6-point favourites and 72% to win on Kalshi, with a 49.5 total. Our rating makes it closer at 58% Baltimore, a second opinion that has tracked behind the market \u2014 fair, given the Ravens' edge at quarterback. Trust Baltimore, but only modestly if Stanley and Flowers are anything less than full speed.", "written_utc": "2026-10-03T21:31:21.462232+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Ravens 34-31 Cowboys Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872960" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "title": "Lamar Jackson Returns to Full Practice Participation", "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/lamar-jackson-injury-report-practicing-back-limited-ravens-titans" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "Falcons injury report: Two defensive starters questionable", "url": "https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/falcons-injury-report-monday-night-football-saints-divine-deablo-samson-ebukam" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, schedule, odds", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/50067784/week-4-picks-predictions-schedule-fantasy-odds-2026" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "title": "NFL Injury Report, Week 4: Latest news, updates", "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/live/nfl-injury-tracker-week-4-latest-news-fantasy-implications-as-puka-nacua-hip-to-play-justin-jefferson-ankle-and-jayden-daniels-elbow-ruled-out-151829331.html" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } }, { "sport": "nfl", "event_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", "market_key": "game_winner", "sides": [ "LA", "BUF" ], "p": [ 0.4649, 0.5351 ], "track": "traffic", "tier": "public", "engine_meta": { "engine": "nfl_ladder", "rung": 4, "computed_utc": "2026-10-05T01:53:09.874543+00:00", "inputs_asof": { "schedule": "2026-10-04T07:28:00.849453+00:00", "book": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00" } }, "context": { "season": 2026, "week": 5, "kick_local": "2026-10-12 20:15 ET", "home_qb": "Matthew Stafford", "away_qb": "Josh Allen", "home_record": "1-2", "away_record": "3-0", "home_rest": 8.0, "away_rest": 8.0, "roof": "dome", "surface": "matrixturf", "stadium": "SoFi Stadium", "location": "Home", "weekday": "Monday", "div_game": false, "home_coach": "Sean McVay", "away_coach": "Sean McDermott", "elo_home": 1577.1, "elo_away": 1652.2, "margin_elo_home": -1.1, "p_home_elo": 0.4611, "epa_diff": -0.2322, "qb_form_diff": -0.0076 }, "market": { "venue": "kalshi", "p_home_now": 0.5575, "observed_at": "2026-10-05T01:45:15.424472+00:00", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct12buflar", "home": { "bid": 0.55, "ask": 0.56, "mid": 0.555, "volume": 2795.94 }, "away": { "bid": 0.43, "ask": 0.45, "mid": 0.44, "volume": 24037.68 } }, "derivatives": {}, "book_lines": { "spread_line_home": 2.5, "total_line": 52.5, "home_moneyline": -135.0, "away_moneyline": 114.0, "note": "nflverse pre-game consensus lines, CC-BY 4.0; not our number" }, "analyst_note": { "text": "Matthew Stafford just ripped Denver for 403 yards and two touchdowns without his No. 1 receiver \u2014 and now he gets him back.\n\nThat is the backdrop for Monday night under the SoFi Stadium dome, with both teams on eight days' rest and Buffalo heading west unbeaten. It is Josh Allen against Stafford in a quarterback showcase, and last week pointed to points: Buffalo survived a sloppy 24-16 win over the Chargers while Los Angeles blew a 16-0 halftime lead in a 30-26 loss at Denver.\n\nThe health report tilts toward the passing games. Los Angeles cleared wide receiver Puka Nacua to return for Week 4 at Philadelphia with no game designation for groin soreness, per the Rams' official injury report on Oct. 2, after he missed the previous two games \u2014 so Monday should be his second game back barring a setback. Buffalo's Week 4 report, per the Bills' official site on Oct. 2, listed cornerback Christian Benford as questionable after missing practice, wide receiver Keon Coleman as limited with an ankle injury and defensive tackle T.J. Sanders as doubtful. No search turned up a quarterback injury concern for either Allen or Stafford.\n\nWhere it is won is **Stafford's timing attack with Nacua back** against **a Buffalo secondary that may be down its top corner**, and on the other side **Allen's creation outside structure** against **a Rams defense that just gave up 30 second-half points to Denver**. Buffalo's win over the Chargers featured six combined turnovers and 17 penalties, per the Democrat and Chronicle on Sept. 27, so ball security travels west with them. The market favours Los Angeles by 2.5 points with a 52.5 total, in line with Kalshi's 56% win price on the Rams. Our rating model sits at 46% for Los Angeles, a second opinion about 10 points lower that leans Buffalo. Trust the favourite only lightly \u2014 an unbeaten road quarterback getting points in a dome is a shaky layup.", "written_utc": "2026-10-04T21:19:08.554478+00:00", "model": "muse-spark-1.3-contributor", "prompt_rev": 3, "sources": [ { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Injury Report, Week 4 at Eagles: Puka Nacua and Kamren Kinchens good to go", "url": "https://www.therams.com/news/rams-injury-report-week-4-2026-at-eagles-puka-nacua-good-to-go-colby-parkinson-questionable-terrance-ferguson-jaylen-watson-and-aaron-donald-ruled-out" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "title": "Buffalo Bills Injury Report vs. Patriots Week 4", "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/news/buffalo-bills-injury-report-vs-patriots-week-4" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Matthew Stafford's best plays from 403-yard, 2-TD game vs. Broncos Week 3 2026", "url": "https://www.therams.com/video/highlights-matthew-stafford-best-plays-vs-broncos-week-3-2026" }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "title": "Broncos 30-26 Rams (Sep 27, 2026) Game Recap", "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872962" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "title": "Bills vs Chargers score, highlights, stats, recap from Week 3", "url": "https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2026/09/27/bills-vs-chargers-score-updates-highlights-stats-from-nfl-week-3--live/91923841007/" } ], "credit": "iPredictSport analyst" } } ], "pickem": [ { "event_id": "2026_05_TB_DAL", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-09T00:15:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "DAL", "elo_confidence": 0.454, "market_pick": "DAL", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 1 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "HOU", "elo_confidence": 0.392, "market_pick": "HOU", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 2 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "CIN", "elo_confidence": 0.361, "market_pick": "CIN", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 3 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T13:30:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "JAX", "elo_confidence": 0.35, "market_pick": "JAX", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 4 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_DET_ARI", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T20:25:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "DET", "elo_confidence": 0.341, "market_pick": "DET", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 5 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T20:05:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "DEN", "elo_confidence": 0.322, "market_pick": "DEN", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 6 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_LV_NE", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "NE", "elo_confidence": 0.246, "market_pick": "NE", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 7 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "WAS", "elo_confidence": 0.204, "market_pick": "WAS", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 8 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "PIT", "elo_confidence": 0.188, "market_pick": "PIT", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 9 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "MIN", "elo_confidence": 0.183, "market_pick": "MIN", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 10 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-12T00:20:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "BAL", "elo_confidence": 0.152, "market_pick": "BAL", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 11 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "CLE", "elo_confidence": 0.073, "market_pick": "NYJ", "agree": false, "confidence_rank": 12 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-13T00:15:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "BUF", "elo_confidence": 0.07, "market_pick": "LA", "agree": false, "confidence_rank": 13 }, { "event_id": "2026_04_ATL_NO", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-06T00:15:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "NO", "elo_confidence": 0.058, "market_pick": "NO", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 14 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_SF_SEA", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T20:25:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "SEA", "elo_confidence": 0.031, "market_pick": "SEA", "agree": true, "confidence_rank": 15 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_CHI_GB", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "elo_pick": "GB", "elo_confidence": 0.028, "market_pick": "CHI", "agree": false, "confidence_rank": 16 } ], "our_picks": [ { "event_id": "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "team": "MIA", "opponent": "CIN", "away": "CIN", "home": "MIA", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T17:00:00+00:00", "p_ours": 0.3194, "p_market": 0.215, "bid": 0.21, "ask": 0.22, "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11cinmia", "fee": 0.012, "value": 0.0874, "rank": 1 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_TB_DAL", "team": "TB", "opponent": "DAL", "away": "TB", "home": "DAL", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-09T00:15:00+00:00", "p_ours": 0.2731, "p_market": 0.17000000000000004, "bid": 0.16, "ask": 0.18, "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct08tbdal", "fee": 0.0103, "value": 0.0828, "rank": 2 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LA", "away": "BUF", "home": "LA", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-13T00:15:00+00:00", "p_ours": 0.5351, "p_market": 0.4425, "bid": 0.43, "ask": 0.45, "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct12buflar", "fee": 0.0173, "value": 0.0678, "rank": 3 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "BAL", "away": "BAL", "home": "ATL", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-12T00:20:00+00:00", "p_ours": 0.4239, "p_market": 0.3375, "bid": 0.33, "ask": 0.35, "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11balatl", "fee": 0.0159, "value": 0.058, "rank": 4 }, { "event_id": "2026_05_SF_SEA", "team": "SF", "opponent": "SEA", "away": "SF", "home": "SEA", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-11T20:25:00+00:00", "p_ours": 0.4845, "p_market": 0.405, "bid": 0.4, "ask": 0.41, "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/kxnflgame-26oct11sfsea", "fee": 0.0169, "value": 0.0576, "rank": 5 } ], "ratings": [ { "team": "SEA", "elo": 1678.8 }, { "team": "BUF", "elo": 1652.2 }, { "team": "SF", "elo": 1617.2 }, { "team": "MIN", "elo": 1611.5 }, { "team": "DEN", "elo": 1604.6 }, { "team": "JAX", "elo": 1602.1 }, { "team": "LA", "elo": 1577.1 }, { "team": "NE", "elo": 1577.0 }, { "team": "CHI", "elo": 1567.4 }, { "team": "KC", "elo": 1559.5 }, { "team": "DET", "elo": 1553.8 }, { "team": "BAL", "elo": 1549.1 }, { "team": "PHI", "elo": 1544.9 }, { "team": "HOU", "elo": 1534.0 }, { "team": "CIN", "elo": 1525.3 }, { "team": "PIT", "elo": 1507.8 }, { "team": "GB", "elo": 1470.9 }, { "team": "CLE", "elo": 1461.8 }, { "team": "ATL", "elo": 1461.2 }, { "team": "DAL", "elo": 1455.3 }, { "team": "LV", "elo": 1455.3 }, { "team": "WAS", "elo": 1452.6 }, { "team": "IND", "elo": 1448.8 }, { "team": "NO", "elo": 1443.5 }, { "team": "NYG", "elo": 1443.0 }, { "team": "CAR", "elo": 1442.3 }, { "team": "LAC", "elo": 1441.3 }, { "team": "TB", "elo": 1429.4 }, { "team": "ARI", "elo": 1415.1 }, { "team": "MIA", "elo": 1395.0 }, { "team": "NYJ", "elo": 1376.0 }, { "team": "TEN", "elo": 1314.5 } ], "missing": { "model_rungs": "rung 5 (market-as-feature) is information, not a product; next is 1010's player-availability beyond the QB", "public_pick_pct": "no source yet for pool-contrarian picks; queue 1023", "market_t6h_live": "the board shows the book NOW; the scored benchmark is T-6h" } }