{
  "sport": "golf",
  "track": "traffic",
  "tier": "public",
  "claim": "Exchange prices we observed, and our field simulation beside them where the gate allows (3ball, h2h, make_cut, top10, top20, top5, win). Our number scores against Kalshi's pre-round-one price by the margin stated per market type; this is not an edge claim and nothing here sizes a stake.",
  "source": {
    "venue": "kalshi",
    "collector": "scripts/collect_exchange_series.py",
    "data_asof": "2026-10-05T01:55:23.263201+00:00",
    "built_utc": "2026-10-05T01:56:58.796280+00:00",
    "stale_hours": 0.03,
    "stale": false,
    "observations_read": 967942,
    "markets": 668
  },
  "model": {
    "engine": "golf_sim_v0",
    "pin": "1bfe4ff93e9842fe",
    "params": {
      "prior": -1.0,
      "k0": 8.0,
      "a_min": 0.03,
      "rust_days": 120,
      "rust_pull": 0.15
    },
    "tau": 0.62,
    "rounds_through": "2026-10-01",
    "n_sims": 20000,
    "built_utc": "2026-10-05T00:00:56.047051+00:00",
    "ratings_from": "official tour round scores 2015-, ESPN public scoreboard (derived only: no raw score is republished)"
  },
  "gate": {
    "mode": "show-with-margin",
    "reason": "model is 5.2 mB behind the market [-7.7, -2.2], n=2348; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
    "kinds": {
      "all": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -5.2,
        "ci95_mB": [
          -7.7,
          -2.2
        ],
        "n": 2348,
        "reason": "model is 5.2 mB behind the market [-7.7, -2.2], n=2348; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75"
      },
      "3ball": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -3.1,
        "ci95_mB": null,
        "n": 681,
        "reason": "model is 3.1 mB behind the market no band, n=681; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75"
      },
      "h2h": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -2.4,
        "ci95_mB": null,
        "n": 479,
        "reason": "model is 2.4 mB behind the market no band, n=479; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75"
      },
      "make_cut": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -8.4,
        "ci95_mB": null,
        "n": 835,
        "reason": "model is 8.4 mB behind the market no band, n=835; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75"
      },
      "top10": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -1.8,
        "ci95_mB": null,
        "n": 88,
        "reason": "model is 1.8 mB behind the market no band, n=88; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75"
      },
      "top20": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -6.0,
        "ci95_mB": null,
        "n": 257,
        "reason": "model is 6.0 mB behind the market no band, n=257; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "competitive_0.25_0.75"
      },
      "top5": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -1.0,
        "ci95_mB": null,
        "n": 745,
        "reason": "model is 1.0 mB behind the market no band, n=745; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "all"
      },
      "win": {
        "mode": "show-with-margin",
        "d_brier_mB": -0.2,
        "ci95_mB": [
          -0.6,
          0.1
        ],
        "n": 987,
        "reason": "model is 0.2 mB behind the market [-0.6, +0.1], n=987; the bar is >5 mB ahead, CI-clear",
        "subset": "all"
      }
    }
  },
  "model_counts": {
    "shown": 506,
    "gated_out": 0,
    "unmapped": 162
  },
  "rules": {
    "max_spread": 0.1,
    "min_group_coverage": 0.5,
    "overround_band": [
      0.95,
      1.2
    ],
    "note": "Stated rules, not a fitted model. Nothing downstream sizes a stake from this board."
  },
  "missing": {
    "depth": "0 golf rows carry an order book (`970c`, horizon gate)",
    "market_t6h": "scored at a stated pre-round-one checkpoint (last candle <= 06:00Z on round-one day), not a measured first-tee time",
    "inplay": "no in-play pricing: an event under way shows its before-round-one forecast",
    "model": "golf_sim_v0 covers win / top-N / make-cut / head-to-head; 3-balls, round leaders and the Ryder Cup are not priced"
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
      "series": "KXPGATOUR",
      "kind": "tournament winner",
      "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
      "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
      "markets": 125,
      "quotable": 0
    },
    {
      "event_id": "KXPGATOP10-BAOUC26",
      "event_name": "KXPGATOP10-BAOUC26",
      "series": "KXPGATOP10",
      "kind": "top 10 finish",
      "close_time": "2026-11-01T04:00:00Z",
      "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
      "markets": 123,
      "quotable": 0
    },
    {
      "event_id": "KXPGATOP20-BAOUC26",
      "event_name": "KXPGATOP20-BAOUC26",
      "series": "KXPGATOP20",
      "kind": "top 20 finish",
      "close_time": "2026-11-01T04:00:00Z",
      "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
      "markets": 123,
      "quotable": 0
    },
    {
      "event_id": "KXPGATOP5-BAOUC26",
      "event_name": "KXPGATOP5-BAOUC26",
      "series": "KXPGATOP5",
      "kind": "top 5 finish",
      "close_time": "2026-11-01T04:00:00Z",
      "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
      "markets": 123,
      "quotable": 0
    },
    {
      "event_id": "KXLPGATOUR-LOTCPBH26",
      "event_name": "LOTTE Championship presented by Hoakalei",
      "series": "KXLPGATOUR",
      "kind": "tournament winner (LPGA)",
      "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
      "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
      "markets": 123,
      "quotable": 1
    },
    {
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-MAST27",
      "event_name": "Masters Tournament",
      "series": "KXPGATOUR",
      "kind": "tournament winner",
      "close_time": "2027-04-25T23:00:00Z",
      "occurrence_datetime": "2027-04-11T23:00:00Z",
      "markets": 51,
      "quotable": 51
    }
  ],
  "forecast": [],
  "devig": [
    {
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "series": "KXPGATOUR",
      "sides": 125,
      "priced": 0,
      "coverage": 0.0,
      "overround": 0.0,
      "devigged": false,
      "refused_because": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "KXLPGATOUR-LOTCPBH26",
      "series": "KXLPGATOUR",
      "sides": 123,
      "priced": 1,
      "coverage": 0.008,
      "overround": 0.23,
      "devigged": false,
      "refused_because": "the 1 of 123 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.23, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-MAST27",
      "series": "KXPGATOUR",
      "sides": 51,
      "priced": 51,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "overround": 0.977,
      "devigged": true,
      "refused_because": null
    }
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-AEWA",
      "sides": [
        "A.J. Ewart",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0071,
        0.9929
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "A.J. Ewart",
        "competitor_key": "f0a24808-6745-4a8d-ad86-8cd8838c96a8",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 169761.64,
          "open_interest": 142694.4,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.0071,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-AWIS",
      "sides": [
        "Aaron Wise",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0026,
        0.9974
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Aaron Wise",
        "competitor_key": "e7105de0-27dd-44be-9e39-73ff4df0caa1",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 23480.44,
          "open_interest": 23480.44,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.0026,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-ASCH",
      "sides": [
        "Adam Schenk",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.001,
        0.999
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Adam Schenk",
        "competitor_key": "cb1856a9-b6ef-45ca-9ad7-9c02501f2481",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 116787.32,
          "open_interest": 116787.32,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.001,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-ASVE",
      "sides": [
        "Adam Svensson",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0014,
        0.9986
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Adam Svensson",
        "competitor_key": "f3dd1173-b81a-4048-abdb-34ae5bc06ed1",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 82362.38,
          "open_interest": 82362.38,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.0014,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-ADUM",
      "sides": [
        "Adrien Dumont De Chassart",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0035,
        0.9965
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Adrien Dumont De Chassart",
        "competitor_key": "0b0b9c7d-e8d8-4c87-9d00-c57d9ee78ede",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 76737.26,
          "open_interest": 76237.26,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.0035,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-APOT",
      "sides": [
        "Aldrich Potgieter",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0021,
        0.9979
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Aldrich Potgieter",
        "competitor_key": "bfc6a7dc-833e-43df-a9b6-499929fdd42c",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 173043.25,
          "open_interest": 162043.25,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.0021,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-ATOS",
      "sides": [
        "Alejandro Tosti",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0001,
        0.9999
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Alejandro Tosti",
        "competitor_key": "7319e8bc-da2f-40a4-8e28-51ad3b28eb2a",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 253214.12,
          "open_interest": 230843.33,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.0001,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-APUT",
      "sides": [
        "Andrew Putnam",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0075,
        0.9925
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Andrew Putnam",
        "competitor_key": "bf8aa94c-d1a9-4de4-a05f-322092033fb0",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 59498.7,
          "open_interest": 59498.7,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": 0.0075,
          "why": null
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-AECK",
      "sides": [
        "Austin Eckroat",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": null,
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Austin Eckroat",
        "competitor_key": "fcab0418-7f9f-4039-8a2c-7d6842461cfa",
        "status": "active",
        "close_time": "2026-10-18T04:00:00Z",
        "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z",
        "book": {
          "bid": 0.0,
          "ask": 0.001,
          "mid": null,
          "spread": 0.001,
          "last": 0.001,
          "volume": 516896.15,
          "open_interest": 422207.56,
          "depth": null
        },
        "price_state": "one-sided",
        "price_state_reason": "no bid: nothing resting to sell into",
        "devig_refused": "the 0 of 125 sides with a quotable book sum to 0.00, outside 0.95-1.20 -- the quoted subset does not span the field, so normalising it would invent the rest",
        "model": {
          "kind": "win",
          "gate_mode": "show-with-margin",
          "p_model": null,
          "why": "golfer not matched in the ESPN field (not entered, or ambiguous)"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "sport": "golf",
      "event_id": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26",
      "market_key": "KXPGATOUR-BAOUC26-BHOS",
      "sides": [
        "Beau Hossler",
        "field"
      ],
      "p": [
        0.0145,
        0.9855
      ],
      "p_market": null,
      "market_t6h": null,
      "tier": "public",
      "track": "traffic",
      "context": {
        "series": "KXPGATOUR",
        "kind": "tournament winner",
        "event_name": "Bank of Utah Championship",
        "competitor": "Beau Hossler",
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      "why": "Matt Wallace is a pick to win the Bank of Utah Championship after **six straight top-15s including T5 at the Rocket Classic, T7 at Wyndham and T10 at Wentworth (-13)** alongside T14 in Ireland and T9 in Switzerland. He has no course history at Black Desert, which at 7,421 yards par-71 with wide fairways, lava rock and 3,000 feet of elevation plays shorter than the card and typically turns into a birdie race that puts a premium on **approach play and hot putting rather than sheer length**, suiting his current 69.22 scoring run. Our probability of 6.3% is 5.3 percentage points above the Kalshi ask of 1c (about 5.3 after the exchange fee). Over 5,402 settled Kalshi golf markets our golf model has scored slightly behind the Kalshi price overall, so this is our model's strongest disagreement with the market, not a sure thing.",
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      "why": "McNealy to win at the Bank of Utah Championship is a pick because our 4.2% probability is 3.0 percentage points above the Kalshi ask of 1c (about 2.9 after the exchange fee). **He arrives off T7 at the BMW Championship backing up T19 at the FedEx St. Jude and T25 at the Wyndham with 19 cuts in 21 starts.** Black Desert Resort is a fresh look with no prior starts on file, a 7,421-yard par-71 at about 3,000 feet with expansive fairways and 7,000-square-foot greens that has played as an easy-scoring, birdie-driven resort test to suit his steady tee-to-green game and reliable putting. Over 5,402 settled Kalshi golf markets our golf model has scored slightly behind the Kalshi price overall, so this is our model's strongest disagreement with the market, not a sure thing.",
      "why_source": "pick",
      "why_written_utc": "2026-10-04T19:42:12.637204+00:00"
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}